科研管理

科研管理 ›› 2008, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (4): 12-18 .

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

情景规划在新兴技术动态评估中的应用/FONT

银路，李天柱     

  1.   电子科技大学管理学院，四川 成都610054
  • 收稿日期:2007-07-09 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:2008-11-20 发布日期:2008-11-20

The application of scenario planning for the dynamic assessment of emerging technologies  

  Yin Lu, Li Tianzhu   

  1. School of Management, University of Electronic Science & Technology of China, Chengdu 610054, China
  • Received:2007-07-09 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2008-11-20 Published:2008-11-20

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摘要：       针对现有新兴技术评估方法的不足，分析了将情景规划应用于新兴技术动态评估的思路与方法；在此基础上，开发了一个新兴技术动态评估的过程模型，并以微硬盘技术为例，说明了该模型的特点与应用过程。  

关键词: 情景规划, 新兴技术, 不确定性, 动态评估

Abstract:   Aimed at the current status that the existing assessment methods for emerging technologies are insufficient, the ideas and methodologies using scenario planning in dynamic assessment for emerging technologies are analyzed. Then, on this basis, a model of the dynamic assessment process for emerging technologies is developed. And a technology named MagicStor is taken as a instance; the traitsand application process of the model are illustrated.

Key words: scenario planning, emerging technology, uncertainty, dynamic assessment

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