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大型工程项目的复杂性及其集成化管理 总被引：5，自引：1，他引：4
通过对大型工程项目的特点进行分析,将大型工程项目的复杂性归纳为两类,即时间复杂性和空间复杂性.通过分析对由大型工程项目的特征引起的管理问题,给出了采用集成化管理的思想解决这些问题的建议,即采用信息集成、过程集成、参与方集成的思想方法,对大型工程建设项目进行集成化管理. 相似文献
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复杂性技术观有两方面含义：一是指在观察当代技术现象时，用复杂性思维方法作为驾驭手段，把技术放到科学、自然、经济和社会的复杂系统中进行综合的和系统的考察，在这样广阔的背景下探索技术创新、技术开发等技术活动过程的一般理论，揭示技术系统演化的一般规律，并在此基础上来建立复杂技术系统的概念体系和普遍适用的基本原理、观点和方法。二是指用复杂性思维观察技术系统本身的复杂性，分析技术系统由简单到复杂、由低级到高级自组织演化过程的序参量、吸引子、演化动力、揭示技术系统的复杂性与适应性的关系。 相似文献
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为加强对重大工程项目所具有的显著的复杂性特点的理解与有效度量,突破性建立重大工程项目复杂性定量评价方法,为项目管理人员精准把控项目复杂性提供有效方法。通过文献综述与专家访谈,从理论上明晰重大工程项目及其复杂性的定义与内涵;基于技术-组织-环境（TOE）理论框架识别重大工程项目复杂性评价要素,通过三轮问卷设计形成调查问卷,对回收的94份问卷进行信度、效度检验与因子分析,构建包含3个维度（技术复杂性、组织复杂性、环境复杂性）与17个二级评价指标的重大工程项目复杂性测度体系;基于网络层次分析（ANP）模型计算得出各指标的权重系数,并提出重大工程项目复杂性计算公式,在此基础上进行案例分析。结果表明：通过三层次复杂性管理策略体系,重大工程项目复杂性定量评估使得评价信息来源明晰、准确与可靠,既实现对项目整体复杂性的宏观把控,又有助于明确复杂性管理方案中的重点控制维度及具体措施。 相似文献
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复杂性、复杂系统与复杂性科学 总被引：35，自引：0，他引：35
本文在前人工作的基础上，研究和总结了复杂性、复杂系统与复杂性
科学的基本概念，尝试给出了复杂性科学的定义；总结了复杂性科学的研究对象、基本原理
和基本研究方法；综述了国内外研究现状，指出了存在的问题和今后需要重点研究的问题。 相似文献
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复杂性研究与系统科学 总被引：23，自引：1，他引：23
本文首先介绍了复杂性研究的科学背景及其科学启示 ,然后把复杂性和复杂系统结合起来 ,从系统科学角度研究复杂性问题 ,阐述了研究复杂系统的方法论———钱学森的从定性到定量综合集成方法。 相似文献
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复杂性科学与现代城市管理 总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7
随着城市人口和规模的扩大,城市的结构、层次越来越复杂。城市的复杂性决定了城市管理工作的复杂性和艰巨性,它体现在问题的动态性以及城市管理各职能部门之间的相互影响和互动。本文介绍了复杂性科学,特别是开放的复杂巨系统理论及其方法论,在对现代城市及城市管理的复杂性分析基础上,提出现代城市及其管理是一类开放的复杂巨系统,应以复杂巨系统理论来指导城市管理工作,并分析了复杂性科学在城市管理中的应用,对现代城市管理有理论价值和现实意义。 相似文献
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企业文化系统是一个复杂系统,它的演化具有复杂性特征.基于复杂性科学和企业文化研究的有关理论,探讨了企业文化系统演化的有关问题,并尝试运用逻辑斯蒂方程和演化博弈模型解释了企业文化演化的多样性及其选择过程,认为企业文化系统中多元文化的共存对于保证企业文化的创新演化具有十分必要的作用. 相似文献
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供应链作为开放的复杂系统有着自身的诸多复杂性,这些复杂性表示这类系统通过自组织与不断的适应,历经不同的、复杂的变化阶段,向优化的、高级的秩序演进的过程。文章阐述了复杂性科学的概念及特征,分析了供应链管理中的复杂性,并在此基础上提出了研究供应链复杂系统及管理的复杂性的四种基本方法,从而为认识与解决供应链管理中复杂性问题提供一种新的研究思路。 相似文献
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《Research Policy》2022,51(3):104450
Economic complexity offers a potentially powerful paradigm to understand key societal issues and challenges of our time. The underlying idea is that growth, development, technological change, income inequality, spatial disparities, and resilience are the visible outcomes of hidden systemic interactions. The study of economic complexity seeks to understand the structure of these interactions and how they shape various socioeconomic processes. This emerging field relies heavily on big data and machine learning techniques. This brief introduction to economic complexity has three aims. The first is to summarize key theoretical foundations and principles of economic complexity. The second is to briefly review the tools and metrics developed in the economic complexity literature that exploit information encoded in the structure of the economy to find new empirical patterns. The final aim is to highlight the insights from economic complexity to improve prediction and political decision-making. Institutions including the World Bank, the European Commission, the World Economic Forum, the OECD, and a range of national and regional organizations have begun to embrace the principles of economic complexity and its analytical framework. We discuss policy implications of this field, in particular the usefulness of building recommendation systems for major public investment decisions in a complex world. 相似文献
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《Research Policy》2023,52(9):104863
In recent years economic complexity has grown into an active field of fundamental and applied research. Yet, despite important advances, the policy implications of economic complexity can remain unclear or misunderstood. Here I organize the policy implications of economic complexity in a framework grounded on 4 Ws: what approaches, focused on identifying target activities and/or locations; when approaches, focused on the timing of related and unrelated diversification; where approaches, focused on the geographic diffusion of knowledge; and who approaches, focused on the role played by agents of structural change. The goal of this paper is to provide a framework that groups, organizes, and clarifies the policy implications of economic complexity and facilitates its continued use in regional and international development. 相似文献
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复杂性范式的兴起 总被引：34，自引：1，他引：34
吴彤 《科学技术与辩证法》2001,18(6):20-24
本文研究复杂性成为各个学科新范式的状况、意义，探索了简单性思维及其局限，以及复杂性思维及其意义。表明复杂性已经成为自然科学的新范式，正在成为人文、社会科学各个领域的新范式。 相似文献
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The usual use of fractals involves self-similar geometrical objects to fill a space, where the self-similar iterations may continue ad infinitum. This is the first paper to propose the use of self-similar mechanical objects that fill an alloted space, while achieving an invariance property as the self-similar iterations continue (e.g. invariant strength). Moreover, for compressive loads, this paper shows how to achieve minimal mass and invariant strength from self-similar structures. The topology optimization procedure uses self-similar iteration until minimal mass is achieved, and this problem is completely solved, with global optimal solutions given in closed form. The optimal topology remains independent of the magnitude of the load. Mass is minimized subject to yield and/or buckling constraints. Formulas are also given to optimize the complexity of the structure, and the optimal complexity turns out to be finite. That is, a continuum is never the optimal structural for a compressive load under any constraints on the physical dimension (diameter). After each additional self-similar iteration, the number of bars and strings increase, but, for a certain choice of unit topology shown, the total mass of bars and strings decreases. For certain structures, the string mass monotonically increases with iteration, while the bar mass monotonically reduces, leading to minimal total mass in a finite number of iterations, and hence a finite optimal complexity for the structure. The number of iterations required to achieve minimal mass is given explicitly in closed form by a formula relating the chosen unit geometry and the material properties. It runs out that the optimal structures produced by our theory fall in the category of structures we call tensegrity. Hence our self-similar algorithms can generate tensegrity fractals. 相似文献
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《Research Policy》2023,52(7):104793
Contrary to conventional economic growth theory, which reduces a country's output to one aggregate variable (GDP), product diversity is central to economic development, as recent “economic complexity” research suggests. A country's product diversity reflects its diversity of knowhow or “capabilities”. Researchers proposed the Economic Complexity Index (ECI) and the country Fitness index to estimate a country's number of capabilities from international export data; these measures predict economic growth better than conventional variables such as human capital. This paper offers a simpler measure of a country's knowhow, Log Product Diversity (or LPD, the logarithm of a country's number of products), which can be derived from a one-parameter combinatorial model of production in which a set of knowhows combine with some probability to turn raw materials into a product. ECI and log-fitness can be interpreted theoretically (using the combinatorial model) and empirically as potentially noisy estimates of LPD; moreover, controlling for natural resources, the simple measure better explains the cross-country differences in GDP and in GDP per capita. 相似文献
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《Research Policy》2022,51(8):104156
One the one hand, complex technologies offer substantial economic benefits, and on the other, they are difficult to invent and to imitate, and they refuse a fast dissemination. This two-sidedness motivates the idea that regions’ competitive advantages and, in consequence, their economic growth, originate in their ability to produce and utilize complex technologies. However, the relationship between technological complexity and regional economic growth has rarely been empirically investigated. Here, we address this pressing research gap by assessing the complexity of technological activities in 159 European NUTS 2 regions and relating it to their economic growth from 2000 to 2014. Our empirical results suggest that technological complexity is an important predictor of regional economic growth. A 10% increase in complexity is associated with a 0.45% GDP per capita growth. By showing that technological complexity is important for regional economic growth, our results fuel current policy debates about optimal regional policies such as the Smart Specialization strategy. 相似文献
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Economic complexity and the green economy 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
《Research Policy》2022,51(8):103948
Which countries are likely to have the productive capabilities to thrive in the green economy? How might countries reorient their existing industrial structures to be more competitive in an environmentally friendly world? To investigate these questions, this paper develops a novel methodology for measuring productive capabilities to the green economy. By constructing a new comprehensive dataset of traded green products and drawing on economic complexity methods, we rank countries in terms of their ability to export complex green products competitively. We show that higher ranked countries are more likely to have higher environmental patenting rates, lower CO2 emissions, and more stringent environmental policies even after controlling for per capita GDP. We then examine countries' potential to transition into green products in the future and find strong path dependence in the accumulation of green capabilities. Our results shed new light on green industrialisation and have a number of implications for green industrial policy. 相似文献
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《Research Policy》2022,51(8):103949
We propose a combinatorial model of economic development. An economy develops by acquiring new capabilities allowing for the production of an ever greater variety of products with an increasing complexity. Taking into account that economies abandon the least complex products as they develop over time, we show that variety first increases and then decreases in the course of economic development. This is consistent with the empirical pattern known as ‘the hump’. Our results question the common association of variety with complexity. We further discuss the implications of our model for future research. 相似文献