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1.
In the last decade, attendance at movie theaters has been relatively stagnant, while sales of digital versatile discs (DVDs)
have grown dramatically. In this paper, we look at the factors determining sales of individual DVDs in the United States.
Using data on new motion pictures released on DVD between 2006 and 2008, we find the demand for new DVDs is price-inelastic
and that DVD sales are counter-cyclical. We find that previous box office success has strong positive effects on DVD sales.
Production budget also has a positive effect on DVD sales, albeit indirectly through its effect on box office revenues. Critical
acclaim has significant positive effects on both box office revenue and DVD sales, but the effect is smaller in regard to
DVDs. There is some evidence to suggest that DVD sales are higher for movies with more sexual content and more violent content
and lower for movies with more profanity, but these effects are indirect through the changes in the box office of these movies.
We find that sales of R-rated DVDs are not as dependent upon critical acclaim as movies of other ratings, and are thus less
risky for movie studios to produce. Our findings provide another explanation for the R-rating puzzle. 相似文献
2.
Frederick W. Derrick Nancy A. Williams Charles E. Scott 《Journal of Cultural Economics》2014,38(2):173-189
This paper advances the ongoing discussion of methods for predicting movie box office revenues with two contributions to the methodology and an out-of-sample test of the model. The first innovation is the development of a two-stage model using publicly available pre-release indicators to predict (1) initial week and (2) subsequent run box office revenues. To incorporate the experience-good nature of movies, the second stage is estimated by incorporating a proxy variable for box office success during the first week relative to predicted first week success. The second contribution is an empirical test of De Vany and Walls’ (J Econ Dyn Control 28:1035–1057, 2004) finding that the distribution of movie revenues has “heavy tails” and follows a non-Gaussian stable distribution with infinite variance. We estimate the two-stage model of a movie’s box office success on all general release movies in 1 year with both the Gaussian and stable distribution with heavy tails and infinite variance and find no evidence for the stable distribution in either stage of the estimation. This two-stage model is validated by comparing all general release movies in 3 future years (out-of-sample data) to the model’s predictions. 相似文献
3.
How does the market react to news regarding large uncertain projects? We analyze stock market reactions to information about changes in opening dates of movies, and present two main findings. First, we find systematic negative stock price responses to the scheduling changes we consider, suggesting that any changes are interpreted as bad news by the market. Second, we find that the market reaction is greater for movies with higher production costs, but is unrelated to subsequent box office revenues. This may point to a limited ability of the market to predict the box office performance of a movie, and to increased sensitivity of the market to cost effects, which are easier to forecast. 相似文献
4.
Timothy King 《Journal of Cultural Economics》2007,31(3):171-186
In a market characterized by a very large number of consumers, irregularly and infrequently choosing from a constantly changing
menu of possibilities, widely available impartial information and advice would be expected to make a significant impact on
demand. In the U.S. in 2003, however, there was zero correlation between critical ratings for films and gross box office earnings.
For movies released on more than 1,000 screens, critical ratings were indeed positively related to gross earnings, and, together
with production budgets and the number of opening screens, explained more than half the variance. But films with only limited
opening release received higher average ratings. This is especially the case for foreign movies and documentaries but also
true for American films, whose ratings, though positively related to the box office, seldom have enough influence to propel
a movie into later wide exhibition or high earnings.
相似文献
| Timothy KingEmail: |
5.
M. Bjørn von Rimscha 《Journal of Cultural Economics》2013,37(4):433-455
The paper addresses whether the state of the economy impacts the supply of and demand for cinema entertainment. A literature review on the drivers of cinema supply and demand is provided, and two competing hypotheses are extracted. Economic downturns could either lead to a sober mood and drive the interest in serious genres or drive the need for distraction leading to an increased interest in feel-good or action movies. However, characteristics of the movie industry suggest that economic key factors have only limited effects on supply and demand. A time series analysis of supply and demand in three major European markets indicate that demand is unrelated to the state of the economy. In aggregate, the demand does not instruct supply. Fluctuations in individual movie quality superpose potential effects of the economic context on the aggregated demand. Simultaneously, a focus on film as art superposes potential effects of the economic context on the supply. 相似文献
6.
Trade in cultural products has traditionally been constrained by a combination of law and technology. In Europe, digital sellers based in a given EU country are not always able to distribute across borders. In January 2016, US-based Netflix announced an expansion to 243 countries, accomplishing cross-border distribution through business strategy. Changes in law or technology that facilitate cross-national cultural trade have traditionally drawn the concern of observers worried about the cultural heritage—and products—of small markets. The expansion raises questions about what Netflix is doing. Is it a cultural hegemon, distributing US fare into 243 countries? Or it is a facilitator of free trade, making the products of even small countries more available outside their home markets (relative to traditional distribution)? And how does the curated model—which limits the number of movies the platform wants to distribute—affect Netflix’s function? To shed light on these questions, we develop a new measure of the global availability of a repertoire, the value-weighted geographic reach. Using this measure we find, first, that Netflix makes many of the works from a wide variety of countries available in many other countries. Second, we find that theatrical distribution strongly advantages US-origin fare. Third, the pattern of origin repertoire available through Netflix also favors the USA, although less overwhelmingly. Moreover, many countries are relatively advantaged by their Netflix availability patterns. Finally, we discuss some issues related to the Netflix platform, including horizontal competition with other platforms, vertical struggles with content providers (and its backward integration into production), and we speculate on possible challenges for regulators. 相似文献
7.
Srividya Ramasubramanian Marissa J. Doshi 《Journal of International and Intercultural Communication》2017,10(3):183-200
This study focuses on how and why Indian American immigrants engage with movies from their home country in a transnational global context. Existing literature has focused on lack of host language proficiency as the primary reason for ethnic media consumption. We suggest that for Indian Americans, the motivation for consuming Indian films is driven by ethnic performance rather than language proficiency. A survey was conducted with Indian Americans to explore the relationships among Indian movie consumption, acculturation indices, language proficiency, and ethnic performance. Results show that ethnic performance is a stronger predictor of Indian movie consumption than language proficiency and acculturation indices. 相似文献
8.
Laikwan Pang 《Culture, Theory & Critique》2013,54(1):19-32
This essay invites readers to re‐examine the cultural meaning of movie piracy in the context of Hollywood's global domination of world cinema. It focuses on VCD piracy in Asia. This popular low‐end technology interrogates and deconstructs the technological fetishism that dominates contemporary Hollywood productions. This essay asks whether and how movie piracy can be theorised to yield a more productive understanding of technology as people's corporeal experience of the material world in a socially constructed political economy. 相似文献
9.
We address the question of the quality of movies produced between 1950 and 1970. A first outcome of our analysis is that the quality assessments made during the Cannes Festival, and to a lesser degree, by the U.S. Academy are short-lasting. In contrast to this, consumers seem consistent over time. There is, however, one issue on which experts agree as well as consumers: American movies dominate both in terms of commercial success and in terms of quality. There is less agreement, and sometimes there is even dissent concerning other dimensions. This does not come as a surprise and merely indicates that there is hardly a common yardstick along which the quality of a movie can be measured. Therefore, decomposing a work of art into quantifiable characteristics – even in a subjective but possibly unanimous way – would make it possible to explain the divergences between audiences and changes of appreciation over time. 相似文献
10.
Gerda Gemser Martine Van Oostrum Mark A. A. M. Leenders 《Journal of Cultural Economics》2007,31(1):43-63
Critics and their reviews can play an important role in consumer decision making in general, and film choice in particular.
In this study, we propose that consumers of art house movies are being led by film reviews when making a film choice (influence
effect), whereas consumers of mainstream movies are hypothesized to rely mainly on other sources of information. Thus, in
the latter case the review does not influence the moviegoer, but may still be a reflection of the ultimate success of the
movie (predictor effect). Using the Dutch film industry as our empirical setting, we study the effects of reviews on the opening
weekend and on the cumulative box office revenue. Our research shows that the number and size of film reviews in Dutch newspapers
directly influence the behavior of the art-movie-going public in their film choice. The number and size of film reviews of
mainstream movies, on the other hand, only predict movie performance.
相似文献
| Gerda GemserEmail: |
11.
Weinberg Charles B. Otten Cord Orbach Barak McKenzie Jordi Gil Ricard Chisholm Darlene C. Basuroy Suman 《Journal of Cultural Economics》2021,45(2):239-262
The recent rise of digital technology in the delivery of entertainment casts doubt among industry stakeholders on whether movie theaters will continue to be the primary channel of the release of motion pictures. Despite the growth of competing outlets due to the spread of digitalization, we argue that the movie theater industry may benefit from digital technologies as well. Enhancing the cinemagoing experience, better matching of the cinemagoing experience to consumer preferences, and improving capacity utilization are crucial if movie theaters are to continue having a pivotal role in the distribution of filmed entertainment. In particular, our data analysis demonstrates that the use of new digital technologies and “big data” may be one way to turn the current threats into future opportunities for movie exhibitors. Therefore, managerial strategies that aim to raise the value proposition of theaters by enhancing the cinemagoing experience, and that boost adaptability to rapidly changing consumer preferences about how and when they view filmed entertainment, ought to be studied and implemented.
相似文献12.
Various studies have built models, using aggregate box-office data, to predict the contribution of a motion picture’s features
to its theatrical demand. But such an approach fails to represent the heterogeneous influence of movie features on demographic
groups and is unable to assist market-segmentation decisions. We propose and illustrate a new approach for modeling the appeal
of movie features to market segments via the use of appropriate individual-specific data and canonical correlation analysis.
Specifically, through demographically detailed movie-attendance data available in Spain, we build a model of how movie features
influence the demographic composition of audiences. Via a canonical correlation analysis, we identify four dimensions underlying
the relationships between several movie features (country of origin, genre, objectionable content, stars, promotional effort,
and critical evaluations) and audience demographics (gender, age range, presence of children, education, social class, and
size of municipality). These dimensions represent the strong pairings between four moviegoer demographic profiles and four
movie-feature profiles. Our approach can potentially aid in segmentation and green-lighting decisions by matching movie features
with the most relevant segment-specific preferences. 相似文献
13.
Uncertainty in the Movie Industry: Does Star Power Reduce the Terror of the Box Office? 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Everyone knows that the movie business is risky. But how risky is it? Do strategies exist that reduce risk? We investigate these questions using a sample of over 2000 motion pictures. We discover that box-office revenues are asymptotically Pareto-distributed and have infinite variance. The mean is dominated by rare blockbuster movies that are located in the far right tail. There is no typical movie because box-office revenue outcomes do not converge to an average: revenues diverge over all scales. The studio model of risk management lacks a foundation in theory or evidence, and revenue forecasts have zero precision. Movies are complex products and the cascade of information among film-goers during the course of a film's run can evolve along so many paths that it is impossible to attribute the success of a movie to individual causal factors. The audience makes a movie a hit and no amount of “star power” or marketing can alter that. The real star is the movie. 相似文献
14.
This paper presents an empirical assessment of movie-theatre attendance in two major metropolitan markets and provides strong support for the importance of spatial characteristics in determining attendance. We consider the hypothesis that attendance at a particular movie theatre reflects a tension between two effects: a negative competition effect and a positive agglomeration effect. We find evidence that the competition effect dominates. Further, we identify a pattern of systematic spatial decay in the impact of this effect on demand. 相似文献
15.
16.
Cinema Demand In Germany 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
This paper examines the German cinema market using time series data covering the period 1950–2002. Applying estimation techniques such as OLS, 2SLS and SUR, we identify interrelations between the number of seats, the average real prices and the demand for movies per capita. Furthermore, we test for the long-run relationship between demand, prices and real income and estimate the elasticity of demand with respect to these variables.JEL–Classification: C22, C23, L82 相似文献
17.
Sumiko Asai 《Journal of Cultural Economics》2016,40(4):375-392
This study empirically investigates the factors affecting demand for best-selling novels in paperback, including the relationship with other formats (hardcover and e-book), and the determinants of prices by estimating the demand for paperbacks and price equations. The results show that paperbacks that have hardcover versions with large sales and that are original novels made into movies or television dramas tend to be best sellers. It is also found that expected demand is not a significant determinant of paperback price, whereas the number of pages is a major factor influencing price. 相似文献
18.
Andrew E. Burke 《Journal of Cultural Economics》1994,18(1):41-64
The paper estimates the demand for vinyl L.P.s in the U.K. In so doing, it outlines a technique to account for the impact of product differentiation innovation when estimating the demand for a product group. This may be particularly important for cultural goods where consumers are attracted to buy a product because of its unique characteristics and where these characteristics differ across time. Thus, the methodology may be used to estimate the demand for other product groups, such as movies and literature. Over the sample period L.P.s are found to be normal goods which are close to being unit price elastic. The diffusion of the Compact Disc appears to reduce the price elasticity of vinyl L.P.s. Consumers also appear to treat L.P.s as perishable goods and the demand for vinyl albums is positively stimulated both by the range of albums available on the L.P. format and product differentiation innovation. 相似文献
19.
Diversity in teams and the success of cultural products 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
This study investigates what is necessary to create successful intercultural motion pictures. We test hypotheses on the effects of (1) the production team and the cast composition (team members’ cultural backgrounds, industry tenure, social networks, education, star status, age, and gender) and (2) film characteristics (set locations, movie genre) on the overall performance of German movies at home and abroad. The empirical results demonstrate that offering cultural familiarity (teams from a diverse cultural background, international settings) provides a sense of familiarity to audiences outside the domestic market and enhances the performance of the film abroad. Yet, domestic success depends on different factors. These issues are underexplored because producers can rarely build on systematic research when attempting to customize films to different cultural settings. The paper shows how to target international audiences more effectively. 相似文献
20.
Masaki Katsuura 《Journal of Cultural Economics》2012,36(1):49-65
This paper empirically examines how household cultural expenditures correspond to business cycles in Japan. Since income level
is among the most important determinants of cultural demand, and income fluctuates with business cycles, examining the relationship
between cultural expenditures and business cycles is useful, particularly in discussing income elasticity of cultural demand.
The data used are monthly household expenditures for movies, live performances, and cultural establishments in the Family
Income and Expenditure Survey. Turning points for cultural expenditures and related indicators are determined by estimating
the regime-switching model. The lead–lag relationship between these series and the reference dates of Japanese business cycles
are analyzed. The result indicates that cultural expenditures fluctuate cyclically with unstable leads and lags corresponding
to business cycles. In addition, cultural expenditures adhere to smaller specific cycles within officially designated expansions,
which imply that income elasticity has not been constant during past business cycles. 相似文献