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1.
【目的】气候变暖直接影响着全球风速变化及风能资源利用效率，通过分析历史风速变化，准确掌握近些年全球陆表风速的变化规律是气候变化应对、资源高效利用、生态安全管理、社会可持续发展等重要内容。【方法】利用欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)的ERA5-Land的0.1°×0.1°网格再分析风速数据集，采用最小二乘法、Theil-Sen斜率估算、Mann-Kendll趋势检验等方法，研究1950—2021年近72年全球年、季节和月平均风速演变的时空特征和适宜风力发电区的风能密度变化。【结果】(1)1950—2021年间全球陆地表面平均风速整体上以0.020 m/(s·10a)的速率略微递增。(2)全球陆地表面风速变化区域差异显著，其中非洲和南极洲大陆的平均风速变化最为明显。(3)全球陆表风速时间序列变化结果表明，季节变化中以冬季变化趋势最显著，平均为0.033 m/(s·10a)；月平均风速变化较为明显的是12月、1月、6月；全球陆表平均风速年际变化在通过95%显著性检验的区域中，显著增加和显著降低的平均变化速率分别为0.073 m/(s·10a)和-0.066 m/(s·10a)；在通过99%... 相似文献
2.
南通地区1960 年-2007 年气温与降水的年际和季节变化特征 总被引：5，自引：1，他引：4
以南通地区7个观测站点逐月平均气温、平均最高气温、平均最低气温和降水量数据为基础,采用线性趋势法、滑动平均法、Malln—Kendall非参数检验法、滑动t检验法和小波分析方法,分析了1960年一2007年南通地区气温、降水的年际和季节变化趋势和突变、周期变化特征。结果表明：1960年-2007年,年际变化以最低气温的较大增幅和较早突变为特征。季节变化以秋冬季平均气温、平均最低气温增温明显,且冬季降水量增加,以及秋冬季增暖突变较早为主要特征。周期变化上,气温和降水参数多存在较大时间尺度上较为稳定的变化特征,如牟平均气温21—30a和春季降水量14—25a时间尺度的变化。小尺度上（10a以下）的变化较为频繁,但不是很稳定。总体上,南通地区气温突变时间要晚于我国西部和中部地区,而降水变化不显著。 相似文献
3.
基于青岛气象台站1961-2010年50年逐月降水资料,计算青岛市降雨侵蚀力。利用Mann-Kendall非参数检验法和累积距平等方法,对青岛市年降雨侵蚀力的变化趋势进行分析。运用连续小波变换(CWT)、交叉小波变化(XWT)和小波相干谱(WTC)分析降雨侵蚀力与ENSO相关指数的周期及其之间的相关关系。结果表明:青岛市年降雨侵蚀力呈下降趋势,变化倾向率为5. 3 MJ·mm/(hm~2·h·a~2),特别是20世纪80年代以来,降雨侵蚀力下降较为显著;分月看,降雨侵蚀力8月最大,为1190. 1 MJ·mm/(hm~2·h·a),12月最小,仅13. 1 MJ·mm/(hm~2·h·a),月际差异明显。累积距平得出,年降雨侵蚀力与ENSO相关指数的突变点位置基本一致,但变化趋势存在差异。青岛市年降雨侵蚀力存在4～5 a的变化周期,与ENSO相关指数呈现出相似的震荡特征;侵蚀力与ENSO相关指数存在显著相关性,在高能量区,降雨侵蚀力和SOI、SST距平值和MEI共振周期是一致的,但分布的时间段不同,且位相变化相反;在低能量区,降雨侵蚀力与SOI有0～0. 5 a呈同位相的共振周期,与SST距平值有4. 5～5 a和5～5. 5a呈负位相的共振周期,与MEI存在0～1 a的共振周期。 相似文献
4.
根据１９５２～１９９８年拉萨站夏季（６～８月）月平均降水资料,首先通过线性趋势估计和多项式拟合等方法分析了拉萨夏季降水长期趋势变化和周期变化骈利用滑动ｔ检验和Ｍａｎｎ－Ｋｅｎｄａｌｌ检验方法讨论了降水突变问题。结果表明：在过去４７年里,拉萨夏季降水有明显的下降趋势,降水突变有１９６６年,６０年代末至８０年代末降水明显偏少,９０年代降水出现回升势头。降水周期变化主要集中在高频的短周期振荡。 相似文献
5.
利用黄河源区12个测站近45a的年平均气温资料,采用EOF、小波分析、Mann-kendall等方法对黄河源区气温变化的时空分布特征进行了分析。结果表明,黄河源区年平均气温的空间变化均具有很好的整体一致性,反映了年平均气温在1960s到1980s期间一个较为平缓的增温过程,1980s后期开始呈现明显的上升趋势,春夏秋冬四个季节的平均气温的增温趋势与年平均气温大致相同,以冬季增温幅度最大。小波分析显示,黄河源区的年平均气温在近45a里主要存在着2年和4~6年的年际变化周期,以及14年的年代际变化周期。在空间分布上,结合EOF和线性倾向估计分析表明,源区中南部升温幅度较小,东部和北部较大,以源区北部升温率最高。另外,各季节气温与年平均气温的变化特征基本是一致的。 相似文献
6.
《科技风》2020,(15)
为掌握新疆伊宁市风的变化特征及其成因,并为合理利用当地风能资源提供一定的参考。本文利用2008-2018年伊宁市风次数及风速等统计资料,主要采用数理统计、线性趋势分析等方法针对风的变化特征进行分析,并在此基础上探讨了大风灾害的成因,结果表明:伊宁市出现风的次数较多,年平均出现风1321次。并整体上以96.636次/10a的速率呈现出明显的下降趋势,其中以夏季出现风次数最多,冬季出现风次数相对较少,占到23.9%。年平均风速以0.173m/s/10a呈现出一定的减弱趋势,年最大风速以0.609m/s/10a的速率呈下降趋势。年极大风速以2.845m/s/10a的速率呈现出一定的增加趋势。地形是导致出现大风天气的主要原因之一。另外,北方春季与冬季冷空气较为活跃。使该地区气压梯度与温度梯度明显增加,进而导致风力增加。再加上高空出现有冷平流,进而极易导致出现气流加速,最终引发大风天气过程。 相似文献
7.
祁连山区日照时数的空间差异、突变与多尺度分析 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
基于祁连山区8个气象站点1958年-2006年逐月日照时数资料,利用线性趋势线、ArcGIS中的Inverse Distance Weighted插值、Mann-Kendall突变检验和Morlet小波分析等方法,对祁连山区日照时数的时空变化特征、突变特点和变化周期进行分析。结果表明:近50a来,祁连山区年平均日照时数呈增加趋势,冬季日照时数呈减少趋势,春、夏、秋季呈增加趋势,且以春季增幅最大;日照时数增幅大小具有显著的中西段大、东南段小的地域差异;增加突变显著,突变时间存在空间差异性。日照时数的周期(p≤0.1)具有多尺度、多层次和多分辨的特性结构,且表现出由中段21a中尺度周期向西、向东逐渐变为4～7a短周期的地域特征。 相似文献
8.
《青海科技》2021,(1)
利用海晏站1980～2019年近40a的地面10m风向风速观测资料,统计分析了该地区平均风速、最大风速、极大风速及风向的特征,结果表明:(1)全年最多风向呈现明显的两极化特征,即以东南和西北风为主,其中东南风出现频率最高;(2)风向具有明显的季节转换特征,夏季盛行东南风,秋冬季盛行西北风,是具有季风倾向的地区;(3)日最大风速基本都是以偏W为主;(4)年平均风速为2.8m/s,整体表现为冬春季风速大、夏秋季风速小的特点;(5)偏西北方位上的风速,无论平均风速、最大风速还是日极大风速,均较其在东南方位上的风速大,尤其在最大风速和极大风速统计中表现更明显;(6)月平均风速、最大风速及月极大风速在40a中表现阶段性震荡起伏的趋势,无明显增强或减弱趋势,但在近10a略显减弱趋势。 相似文献
9.
西藏丁青县1961—2015年气温变化特征分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
文章采用丁青县1961~2015年气温资料,运用气候倾向率、M-K趋势检验和突变分析、Morlet小波变换等方法对丁青县气温年、季变化特征进行分析,结果表明:丁青县平均气温、最高气温和最低气温均呈显著的上升趋势,气候倾向率分别为0.246℃/10a、0.242℃/10a和0.275℃/10a,升温率小于青藏高原地区,高于全国平均升温率。无论是平均气温、最高气温还是最低气温,四季均表现为增温趋势,以冬季增温幅度最大。平均气温、最高气温和最低气温的升高均为突变现象,突变点分别在1995年、2002年和1994年左右。气温变化存在明显的周期,且无论较长周期还是较短周期的变化都处于偏暖期,且在未来一定时期内呈向较暖趋势发展的走向。 相似文献
10.
本文利用浙江省68个国家气象站1972—2021年的年降水量和日平均气温资料,采用线性倾向率法、累积距平法、Mann-Kendall非参数检验、滑动T检验和小波分析等数理统计分析方法,对浙江省近50 a来的气候变化特征进行研究。结果表明：(1)浙江省近50 a来,年均气温显著上升,气候倾斜率为0.39℃/10a;年降水量整体呈现小幅度的上升趋势,波动现象比较明显,气候倾斜率为38.339 mm/10a;(2)年均气温在1997年左右出现了1次明显突变,经历了1次低温到高温的转变;年降水量则在2010年左右出现明显突变,2010年是浙江省年降水量逐渐增加的开始;(3)小波分析结果显示浙江省近50 a来的气候变化的第一主周期为30 a;年均气温主要存在着24～32 a的长周期规律,短周期规律不显著;年降水量的震荡周期存在24～32 a、14～24 a、8～12 a、4～8 a的多尺度嵌套结构;(4)目前处于小波系数等值线气温高值中心及降水低值中心,等值线尚未闭合,预测未来一段时间将继续处于年均气温偏高、降水偏低的周期内。 相似文献
11.
Marjorie Armstrong-Stassen Margaret Landstrom Ramona Lumpkin 《The Information Society》1998,14(2):153-164
This study examined how students who had no prior experience with videoconferencing would react to the use of videoconferencing as an instructional medium. Students enrolled in seven different courses completed a questionnaire at the beginning of the semester and again at the end of the semester. Students at the origination and remote sites did not differ in their reactions toward videoconferencing but there was a significant difference for gender. Women reacted less favorably to videoconferencing. Compared to the beginning of the semester, students reported significantly less positive attitudes toward taking a course through videoconferencing at the end of the semester. There were no significant differences in students' attitudes toward videoconferencing across courses at the beginning of the semester but there were significant differences across the courses at the end of the semester. The results suggest the need for better preparation for both students and instructors. 相似文献
12.
A joint study by Prof. ZHANG Zhibin from the CAS Institute of Zoology his co-workers from Norway US Swiss have indicated that historical outbreaks of migratory locusts in China were associated with cold spells suggesting that China's projected climate warming could decrease the pest's numbers. The study was published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences on September .…… 《中国科学院院刊(英文版)》2008,22(1):6-7
Ajoint study by Prof. ZHANG Zhibin from the CAS Institute of Zoology and his co-workers from Norway, US and Swiss have indicated that historical outbreaks of migratory locusts in China were associated with cold spells, suggesting that China＇s projected climate warming could decrease the pest＇s numbers. The study was published in Proceedings of theNational Academy of Sciences on 17 September, 2007. 相似文献
13.
Caroline Haythornthwaite 《The Information Society》2001,17(3):211-226
A computer-mediated group is a complex entity whose members exchange many types of information via multiple means of communication in pursuit of goals specific to their environment. Over time, they coordinate technical features of media with locally enacted use to achieve a viable working arrangement. To explore this complex interaction, a case study is presented of the social networks of interactions and media use among members of a class of computer-supported distance learners. Results show how group structures associated with project teams dominated who communicated with whom, about what, and via which media over the term, and how media came to occupy their own communication niches: Webboard for diffuse class-wide communication; Internet Relay Chat more to named others but still for general communication across the class; and e-mail primarily for intrateam communication. Face-to-face interaction, occurring only during a short on-campus session, appears to have had a catalytic effect on social and emotional exchanges. Results suggest the need to structure exchanges to balance class-wide sharing of ideas with subgroup interactions that facilitate project completion, and to provide media that support these two modes of interaction. 相似文献
14.
Electronic data interchange (EDI) provides means for interorganizational communication, creates network externalities, requires an advanced information technology (IT) infrastructure, and relies on standards. In the diffusion of such innovations, institutional involvement is imperative. Such institutions contain governmental agencies, national and global standardization organizations, local government, and nonprofit private organizations like industry associations. The last type of organizations we call intermediating institutions. They intermediate or coordinate ("inscribe") the activities of a group of would-be adopters. Unfortunately, little is known of how these organizations shape the EDI diffusion trajectory. In this article we examine one specific type of intermediating organizations?industry associations?and how they advanced the EDI diffusion process in the grocery sectors of Hong Kong, Denmark and Finland. We identify six institutional measures, placed into a matrix formed by the mode of involvement (influence vs. regulation) and the type of diffusion force (supply push vs. demand pull), that can be mobilized to further the EDI diffusion. Industry associations were found to be active users of all these measures to varying degrees. Their role was critical especially in knowledge building, knowledge deployment, and standard setting. Furthermore, institutional involvement varied due to policy and cultural contingencies and power dependencies. 相似文献
15.
Puay Tang 《The Information Society》1998,14(1):19-31
The increasing prospects of digital piracy has prompted the perceived need by electronic publishers to adopt technical systems of protection, and governments to reform their copyright laws. This article is a preliminary study of the management of intellectual property by electronic publishers, defined as those involved in the production of online databases, and CD-ROMs. It focuses on three main issues: (1) how electronic publishers view the increasing threat of piracy; (2) the methods of protection employed to protect intellectual property in digital format; and (3) the importance of technological protection of intellectual property in electronic publications. The analysis is based on a sample of 23 UK electronic publishers. The interviews revealed an interesting assortment of protection methods and did not show that technological protection was a preferred way. Instead, the means of protection, in addition to copyright law, comprised niche markets, pricing, trust, bad publicity, and nontechnical and technical means. 相似文献
16.
Milton Mueller 《The Information Society》2001,17(3):151-163
Long-standing conflict between domain name registrants and trademark holders prompted the Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN) to create a global, mandatory arbitration procedure known as the Uniform Dispute Resolution Policy (UDRP). The UDRP has been used in 2166 cases involving 3938 domain names as of 1 November 2000. The policy gives the initiator of a complaint, generally a trademark holder, the right to choose which ICANN-accredited dispute resolution service provider (RSP) will handle the case. During the preparation of the UDRP,some feared that complainant selection would lead to "forum shopping" that might bias the results. This article performs a statistical assessment of the forum-shopping thesis and finds support for it. There are statistically significant differences in the various RSPs' propensity to take away names from defendants; there are also major differences in the number of cases brought to each RSP. RSPs who take away names have the larger share of cases. The study examines other variables that might explain differences in market share, such as price, the plaintiff's nationality, or the time taken to decide a case. It finds that nationality and time also are correlated with market share. The study concludes that shopping for a favorable outcome is an important factor in the UDRP. 相似文献
17.
Prof. Raymond C.K. Chen a neuropsychologist with the CAS Institute of Psychology has made novel progress in his studies of schizophrenia. His work has been reported by a recent issue of Behavioural Neurology.…… 《中国科学院院刊(英文版)》2008,22(1):15-15
Prof. Raymond C.K. Chen, a neuropsychologist with the CAS Institute of Psychology, has made novel progress in his studies of schizophrenia. His work has been reported by a recent issue of Behavioural Neurology. 相似文献
18.
《中国科学院院刊(英文版)》2014,(3)
<正>In Xishuangbanna,one of China’s most biodiverse regions,landscape has changed dramatically during the past three decades due to the conversion of tropical rainforest to rubber plantations.In steep areas,terraces are often constructed before planting rubber trees,which causes two important changes in the soil:the destabilization of soil in the bench terraces and the increased vulnerability of unvegetated riser faces to erosion.Few studies have documented the nature and intensity of erosion on bench terraces.Prof.LIU Wenjie and his colleagues from the Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden(XTBG)conducted a study in Menglun County(21°5′39″N,101°15′55″E),Xishuangbanna to evaluate the influence 相似文献
19.
Chinese Scientists Use Earth Observation Technologies to Study and Protect Wild Camels 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
《中国科学院院刊(英文版)》2014,(3):267-268
<正>Chinese scientists plan to apply Earth Observation technologies to protect the critically endangered wild camels(Camelus ferus).With the help of remote sensing,satellite positioning,geographical information system and wireless sensors networks,they will be able to access the distribution and population of the wild camels and protect their habitats.The project will be carried out by the International Research Center for Wild Camel Conservation,which was jointly established earlier this year by the Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth(RADI)of the Chinese 相似文献
20.
WANG Sijia 《中国科学院院刊(英文版)》2014,(2):192-194
<正>The Paul Gerson Unna Research Group on Dermatogenomics was founded in October 2012 at the Partner Institute for Computational Biology.The ultimate goal of the group is to understand the biology of skin and skin appendages. 相似文献