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1.
Does the parliamentary behavior of members of parliament, parliamentaryparties, and government correspond with the public's preferencesregarding political issues? What conditions support the emergenceof congruence between public opinion and public policy? Thesequestions are central concerns of democratic theory. In thispaper, they are investigated empirically for the activitiesin the federal German legislature, the German Bundestag, between1949 and 1990. For this purpose, 94 time series of public opinionpolls have been combined with content analysis of more than3, 000 parliamentary documents (e.g. parliamentary questions,committe reports). If public opinion about a policy matter changes,approximately 60 percent of the respective parliamentary actionsare congruent with the direction of opinion change. The congruencebetween public opinion and public policy is greatest for opinionchanges in a conservative direction when the political statusquo is supported. Even more important than the direction ofopinion change is the public's majority opinion at the timeof parliamentary action.  相似文献   

2.
For some time now, theorists and investigators in the fieldof public opinion have discussed how opinion, public and thecombination of the two into a single term should be conceptualized.With regard to the first concept mentioned, the difference betweenattitude and opinion has been a central focus of dispute. Thisarticle demonstrates how a structural equation model, whereopinions are included as dependent variables, and attitudes,among other relevant variables, as explanatory variables, maycontribute to the discussion. Application of such a model, whichmay be considered the reflection of an attitude and opinionsystem, again forces the researcher to conceptualize the publicinvolved.  相似文献   

3.
This article assesses the potential for US news coverage offoreign affairs to influence US public opinion about foreigncountries during the latter part of 1989 and early 1990, a timeof dramatic changes in central Europe. The study draws on twosources of data: content analysis of US network news and wireservice coverage of nine countries (West Germany, East Germany,the Soviet Union, Hungary, Poland, Great Britain, France, Japan,and Israel) over a six month period, and a nationally representativesurvey of 1,117 US adults which measured opinions about thesecountries, conducted in early 1990. The study shows that thereis an important relationship between the visibility of foreigncountries in TV news and US public opinion about these countries.TV is more important than newspapers for influencing publicopinion about foreign countries. And attention to foreign affairsnews, rather than simple exposure to news, best predicts generalliking of a country. Finally, attention to television news coveragehad a positive and significant influence on sympathy with Westand East Germany in 1990, even if one had German friends, relativesor ancestors, or had visited Europe.  相似文献   

4.
Some years ago, major French firms and institutions joined forcesto develop the AGORAMETRIE system, which analyzes and followsup public opinion about controversial matters in French society.The system is based on annual comprehensive surveys of representativesamples of the French population. We present here the theoreticalbasis of the system, and its application as a decoding toolto the analysis of specific social problems, by consideringthe following points: the modelling of public opinion througha constructivist approach; questionnaire design and interpretationof structural factors; evolution of public opinion, effectsof date, age and generation; and the ‘grafting’procedure and its application, illustrated by opinion aboutAIDS.  相似文献   

5.
图书馆如何为地方政府提供媒体舆情的监察与分析服务   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
在资讯时代,掌握媒体舆情可以帮助地方政府了解社情民意,进行科学决策。该文分析了地方政府对媒体舆情掌控的需求,并结合广州大学图书馆为地方政府部门开展媒体舆情信息服务的具体实践,探讨图书馆如何构建面向地方政府开展媒体舆情监察与分析信息服务的机制。  相似文献   

6.
Data from seven Swedish Election Studies were analyzed to testthree hypotheses about aggregate public opinion. Various facetsof public opinion, including a balance measure of direction,five measures of intensity, percentage don't know, and percentageneutral, were found to be highly stable across time. In mostinstances, the majority was more intense than the minority.Changes in public opinion could not be predicted from the relativeintensity of the majority and the minority in the election threeyears before.  相似文献   

7.
Noelle-Neumann's work on the spiral of silence (1974, 1977,1984) has been one of the most significant theoretical developmentsin public opinion research of the past quarter-century. Thetheory is well known among public opinion researchers, and anumber of research efforts have been directed toward examiningspecific parts of the theory. However, the theory is difficultto test, incorporating psychological, social-psychological andsociological variables, including psychological variables andsweeping changes in the social climate of opinion (cf. Noelle-Neumann1984). This study investigated the role of opinion thresholds, socialgroups and weighing of others' opinions in opinion expression.Using Krassa's (1988) computer simulation and modificationsof Noelle-Neumann's (1974) spiral of silence as a base, we testseveral theoretical modifications to the spiral of silence modelusing data gathered from people living in or near six nationalparks in Canada. Primary interest is on the ability of opinionthresholds, social group and weighing of others' opinions topredict the expression of opinion for particular issues.  相似文献   

8.
Recent studies have suggested that agenda-setting may influencenot only what we think about, but also what we think. This studyexamines the correlations between the salience of one issue(the federal budget deficit) and public knowledge, opinion,and behavior, using fall 1988 survey data. It finds statisticallysignificant correlations between issue salience and knowledgeabout the deficit issue, strength and direction of opinion regardingone possible solution to the issue, and political behavior relatedto the issue. These correlations remain statistically significantin multiple regression analyses where demographics and mediaexposure and attention measures are controlled simultaneouslyand in hierarchical blocks. Taken together, the findings reportedhere suggest that increased salience of the deficit issue wasaccompanied by increased knowledge of its possible causes andsolutions, stronger opinions, less likelihood of taking a neutralposition, and more likelihood of participating in politics throughsuch behavior as signing petitions, voting, attending meetings,and writing letters.  相似文献   

9.
For the first time in more than four decades, Central and EastEuropeans can openly voice their opinion about everything fromthe price of bread to the performance of the government. Publicopinion has become a dynamic factor in the decision-making processof the new governments of Hungary, Poland, and Czechoslovakiaand will play an important role in determining what kind ofpost-communist societies develop in these countries. In an effortto explore public sentiment about what kind of society theywant to develop, we analyze results from 14 nationwide, representativepublic opinion polls commissioned by the United States InformationAgency's Office of Research between June 1989 and January 1992in Hungary, Czechoslovakia, and Poland. After tracing trendsin public opinion over this period, we look at some aspectsof the political culture in these countries. We then reporton our preliminary attempts to understand the determinants ofindividual preferences for either a society that emphasizesindividual freedom and responsibility (‘individual opportunities’society) or one in which the state assumes responsibility forassuring public welfare (‘state guarantees’ society).  相似文献   

10.
THE ACCESSIBILITY BIAS IN POLITICS: TELEVISION NEWS AND PUBLIC OPINION   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
The influence of television news over public opinion is tracedto the ‘accessibility bias’ in processing information.In general, the argument stipulates that information that canbe more easily retrieved from memory tends to dominate judgments,opinions and decisions. In the area of public affairs, moreaccessible information is information that is more frequentlyof more recently conveyed by the media. Four different manifestationsor the accessibility bias in public opinion are described includingthe effects of news coverage on issue salience, evaluationsof presidential perfomance, attributions of issue responsibility,and voting choices.  相似文献   

11.
In recent years, a number of new techniques have been developed—includingdeliberative polls and educational surveys—that attemptto gather measures of public opinion that is of higher quality(i.e. better informed or more deliberative) than that recordedin typical mass opinion surveys. This paper addresses severalgeneral sets of questions. What is meant by ‘quality’in public opinion? What criteria can be enumerated by whichthe quality of public opinion can be assessed? In grapplingwith these questions, the paper argues that conceptions of qualityin public opinion are inextricably bound to broader conceptionsof quality in democratic decision making, a complex processinvolving multiple phases and collective participants. In addition,a number of important contradictions and ambiguities underlieconceptions of quality in public opinion.  相似文献   

12.
This paper analyzes opinion formation in the cases of threemediated conflicts using a complex model that evaluates therespondents' value systems, the coverage of the mass media used,the recipients' familiarity with specific events occurring inthe conflicts, and their positions on the issues. The modelpredicts that the recipients' long-term value systems influencetheir positions on the issue in two ways. Firstly, value systemshave a direct impact on the short-term positions on an issue.Secondly, value systems have an indirect impact on the positionsof issues by influencing the recipients' selection of news mediaand thus the type and amount of news information they are exposedto. The type and amount of news influences how knowledgeablethey are of the events related to the conflicts. The familiaritywith these events influences their positions on the issues.Value systems, media usage, familiarity and positions on theissues were measured in a survey. A parallel content analysisexamined the coverage of the conflicts in the German mass media(press, radio, television) during the six-month time frame priorto the survey. Both data sets were merged in order to give anestimate of the information each recipient was exposed to. Theresults of multiple regression analyses support the theoreticalmodel. Furthermore, this paper discusses the relevance of themodel for the analysis of opinion formation as well as the limitationsof the model.  相似文献   

13.
In this article the authors argue that studies of the influenceof the mass media on public support for presidential candidatesin primary elections should return to the social pyschologicalmodel of attitude change. This model should take into account,however, that in the real world, unlike laboratory settings,randomization and complete controls of variables are not possible,and rational and strategic choice considerations come into play,along with the cumulative effects of new information on aggregateopinion. The variables found to be relevant to attitude change,especially the characteristics of the communicator and the communication,have not been studied systematically in natural settings. Littleis known about how new information unrelated to electoral ‘momentum’affects the public's evaluations and support for candidates.A fuller explanation is needed of what are complex media influenceson candidate support in primary elections—including especiallythose messages conveyed through the media which tend to be distinctiveand most accessible to memory: information about the viabiltiyof candidates; positive messages and images conveyed directlyfrom the candidates themselves and (to a lesser extent) fromother major party leaders who support or oppose them; and, ofspecial theoretical importance, the ostensibly credible newscommentary about the candidates.  相似文献   

14.
This study content analyzed a leading Korean newspaper to examinethe different framing of presidents Kim Young-sam and Roh Moo-hyun,and to look at whether there was a relationship between mediaframing and public opinion of the two presidents. The news storiesabout the presidents were analyzed in terms of topics, sources,the wording the presidents were referred to, and the contentof presidential quotations. Public opinion was investigatedwith the help of two surveys. Results show that President Rohwas predominantly referred to within a politics frame and hada lower approval among the population, mostly in terms of hisbeing negatively characterized as a politician, while PresidentKim was represented more within a policy frame, and was evaluatedin light of his policies among the public. The study discussesthe significance of examining media framing of a president,and the necessity for further experimental study of the primingeffect of media frames of a president.  相似文献   

15.
Since their beginnings pre-election polls have been under attackfrom politicians and journalists. One of the most fundamentalcriticisms of polls is that they can influence the outcome ofelections. This article investigates news media reporting ofpoll results and comments on public opinion research beforeFederal elections in Germany. It presents empirical findingsfor the quantity as well as the formal and substantial qualityof this press coverage. The database is a content analysis of443 pre-election poll articles published in Germany's leadingdailies Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ), Frankfurter Rundschau(FR), Süddeutsche Zeitung (SZ), and Die Welt (Welt) between1980 and 1994. The quantity of news media reporting of publicopinion polls has improved over the years. Now, poll storiesare a standard feature of German newspapers. The frequency ofreports depends on the conditions of each election—e.g.on the expected closeness of the election outcome. The formalquality could be better—that is the conformity to AAPORstandards. Horse-race journalism isn't found as often as inthe USA. Journalists often use poll results to predict an electionoutcome. Moreover, the analysis revealed an ambivalent relationshipbetween liberal journalists and polls, while the reporting ofconservative journalists is more in favor of opinion research.  相似文献   

16.
Ideodynamics is a new mathematical model able to predict timetrends of public opinion based on information in the mass media.Using this model and a new method of computer content analysisapplied to Associated Press stories retrieved from the Nexiselectronic data base, it was possible to forecast actual opinionpoll results for the American Presidential election of 1988with very high accuracy. The average deviation between the computerpredicted values and over 120 measured poll values was 2.7 percent for George Bush versus Michael Dukakis. On election day,the deviation was 2 per cent.  相似文献   

17.
In this section the International Journal of Public OpinionResearch reviews in a very condensed manner articles which haverecently been published in other journals and which relate tothe field of public opinion research. This section does notaim to give readers a comprehensive insight to particular studies,but rather to alert them to ideas and results that may be linkedto their own work. In order to facilitate orientation to thereader, the reviews are grouped according to the following topics: (1) Politics, Elections and Social Values; (2) Public Opinion on Current Issues; (3) Methodology of Public Opinion Polling; (4) Polls as a Social and Political Factor; (5) Mass Media and Public Opinion.  相似文献   

18.
Marginalized from the center of power, women in Hong Kong maybe particularly vulnerable to the future political transition,as the territory prepares for an exchange from British to Chineserule. How do women feel about the impending changes in HongKong? According to results from a recent (April 1993) representativetelephone survey in Hong Kong (n = 502), women are less likelyto have faith in the political future of Hong Kong than men.Moreover, this relationship between gender and political cynicismbecomes more pronounced when controlling for socio-economicstatus and is more intensive among persons in their middle years.Contrary to expectations, exposure to newspapers does not encouragedistrust, but instead appears to be associated with less cynicismof the future transition, at least among men. Women, on theother hand, are less likely to be susceptible to press coverage.In a context in which political transition is pending, suchas in Hong Kong, it is imperative to attempt to understand theevolution and disintegration of political cynicism, particularlyamong those who may be vulnerable to political change.  相似文献   

19.
While previous research has demonstrated that representationsof opinion distributions can impact individual-level judgements,the perceptual processes that yield estimates of that opinionare not yet fully explored. This study focuses exclusively onthe association between personal opinion and perceived publicopinion, examining its magnitude across several political figuresand within multivariate models of opinion perception. Moreover,the association between affective intensity toward a politicalfigure and perceived discrepancy with public opinion is alsoinvestigated. Overall, findings highlight a strong relationshipbetween personal and perceived public sentiment. While occasionallysignificant, the effects of group attachments are relativelymodest. Additionally, findings suggest that as affective orientationtoward political figures advances from neutrality to highlyfavorable or unfavorable, perceived discrepancies with publicsentiment rise considerably. Implications and future researchconsiderations are discussed in some detail.  相似文献   

20.
This paper examines the results of studies in Britain and Franceon the views of the two peoples towards public opinion surveys: — their experience of surveys — attitudes towards the concept of sample surveys — the accuracy of sample surveys — the publication of polls during election campaigns — exposure to news information — interest in survey data The results in the two countries were, to a substantial degree,similar and showed an underlying positive attitude towards publicopinion surveys. There are, however, a number of points to bearin mind, where more public relations and more public informationis required to improve public awareness of, and public acceptanceof, opinion surveys.  相似文献   

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