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1.
This paper advances the ongoing discussion of methods for predicting movie box office revenues with two contributions to the methodology and an out-of-sample test of the model. The first innovation is the development of a two-stage model using publicly available pre-release indicators to predict (1) initial week and (2) subsequent run box office revenues. To incorporate the experience-good nature of movies, the second stage is estimated by incorporating a proxy variable for box office success during the first week relative to predicted first week success. The second contribution is an empirical test of De Vany and Walls’ (J Econ Dyn Control 28:1035–1057, 2004) finding that the distribution of movie revenues has “heavy tails” and follows a non-Gaussian stable distribution with infinite variance. We estimate the two-stage model of a movie’s box office success on all general release movies in 1 year with both the Gaussian and stable distribution with heavy tails and infinite variance and find no evidence for the stable distribution in either stage of the estimation. This two-stage model is validated by comparing all general release movies in 3 future years (out-of-sample data) to the model’s predictions.  相似文献   

2.
Most research into the film industry focuses on aggregate level market analysis of a range of devices used by the industry to ensure the success of its films. In contrast, in this paper, we experimentally test how individual cinema-goers are influenced by two variables that have aroused considerable interest in the literature: critical reviews and the role of box office stars. As regards the former, the results of our experiment indicate that negative reviews by film critics are cues that affect cinema-goers’ pre-film assessment of a film yet fail to exert any effect on post-film assessment. As regards the latter, a cast of box office stars is not seen to be an indication of quality per se for our experimental subjects. Nor do box office stars help to mitigate the potential effects of negative reviews.  相似文献   

3.
In a market characterized by a very large number of consumers, irregularly and infrequently choosing from a constantly changing menu of possibilities, widely available impartial information and advice would be expected to make a significant impact on demand. In the U.S. in 2003, however, there was zero correlation between critical ratings for films and gross box office earnings. For movies released on more than 1,000 screens, critical ratings were indeed positively related to gross earnings, and, together with production budgets and the number of opening screens, explained more than half the variance. But films with only limited opening release received higher average ratings. This is especially the case for foreign movies and documentaries but also true for American films, whose ratings, though positively related to the box office, seldom have enough influence to propel a movie into later wide exhibition or high earnings.
Timothy KingEmail:
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4.
Everyone knows that the movie business is risky. But how risky is it? Do strategies exist that reduce risk? We investigate these questions using a sample of over 2000 motion pictures. We discover that box-office revenues are asymptotically Pareto-distributed and have infinite variance. The mean is dominated by rare blockbuster movies that are located in the far right tail. There is no typical movie because box-office revenue outcomes do not converge to an average: revenues diverge over all scales. The studio model of risk management lacks a foundation in theory or evidence, and revenue forecasts have zero precision. Movies are complex products and the cascade of information among film-goers during the course of a film's run can evolve along so many paths that it is impossible to attribute the success of a movie to individual causal factors. The audience makes a movie a hit and no amount of “star power” or marketing can alter that. The real star is the movie.  相似文献   

5.
This study considers a frailty duration approach to modelling the life-length of a sample of 360 films that went into wide release at the Australian box office from 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2005. The analysis extends previous research by considering a range of film-specific covariates relating to distribution, production, consumer signals, and weekly performance. In particular, it is shown that film success (defined in a duration context) responds to previewing, advertising, critical reviews, and US box office—but not to production budget, star power or opening-week screens. The study also reveals that it is appropriate to account for unobservable heterogeneity between films in the choice of empirical methodology.  相似文献   

6.
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7.
In the last decade, attendance at movie theaters has been relatively stagnant, while sales of digital versatile discs (DVDs) have grown dramatically. In this paper, we look at the factors determining sales of individual DVDs in the United States. Using data on new motion pictures released on DVD between 2006 and 2008, we find the demand for new DVDs is price-inelastic and that DVD sales are counter-cyclical. We find that previous box office success has strong positive effects on DVD sales. Production budget also has a positive effect on DVD sales, albeit indirectly through its effect on box office revenues. Critical acclaim has significant positive effects on both box office revenue and DVD sales, but the effect is smaller in regard to DVDs. There is some evidence to suggest that DVD sales are higher for movies with more sexual content and more violent content and lower for movies with more profanity, but these effects are indirect through the changes in the box office of these movies. We find that sales of R-rated DVDs are not as dependent upon critical acclaim as movies of other ratings, and are thus less risky for movie studios to produce. Our findings provide another explanation for the R-rating puzzle.  相似文献   

8.
In recent years, Australian films have failed to capture the public’s attention at the Australian box office. Why? Do Australians have an aversion to their own films? Or does the release strategy—advertising/publicity expenditure and opening number of screens—explain the lacklustre performance? We find that even though Australian films are generally advertised more heavily and released more widely than non-Australian films, ceteris paribus, they earn less at the box office. We also analyse a subsample of our data for which Film Finance Corporation funding information is available and find that government subsidies have no impact on a film’s financial success at the box office.  相似文献   

9.
This article investigates the effect of a Tony nomination or win on the demand facing a Broadway production using a panel of weekly revenues for Broadway productions from 1996 to 2007. Our results indicate that the effect of a nomination or win is positive in the week of the announcement and gradually increases in successive weeks, presumably due to publicity and word-of-mouth. Winners experience an increase in demand as late as 1 year later when awards are publicized for the following season. Moreover, nominees that do not win the award are penalized heavily in the weeks following the Award announcements. We find that winning a Tony Award increases a production’s revenues by 12% in the week immediately following the Awards.
Lesley ChiouEmail:
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10.
Previous studies of the movie industry have raised questions concerning the problematic relationship between the success-related aspects of artistic excellence and commercial appeal. The present article proposes that—when the former is measured by industry recognition (Oscars and other awards) and the latter by market performance (box office and video rentals) and when the former hinges on the evaluative judgments of reviewers and consumers (ratings of excellence) and the latter on the level of buzz among these audience members (amount of attention, word of mouth, or click of mouse)—the two phenomena are essentially separable as independent paths to conceptually distinct and empirically uncorrelated aspects of motion-picture success. An analysis of data for 190 movies from the year 2003 shows that reviewer-and-consumer evaluations and buzz respond differently to a film’s marketing clout (production budget, opening screens, and opening box office) and that these audience responses contribute independently to a film’s industry recognition and market performance along two separable paths. These findings suggest various implications for movie marketers, film producers, actors or actresses, and other members of the motion-picture industry.
Michela AddisEmail:
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11.
Audiences choose to see films using information from previous films. A stochastic consumer choice process based on this assumption generates a particular distribution of financially successful films among film types. Movie stars can be used to mark these successful film types. Thus, their star power originates not only from box-office appeal but also from marking power. Evidence of 960 top 20 films released in the United States and Canada between 1940–1955 and 1960–1995 is consistent with this model.  相似文献   

12.
Critics and their reviews can play an important role in consumer decision making in general, and film choice in particular. In this study, we propose that consumers of art house movies are being led by film reviews when making a film choice (influence effect), whereas consumers of mainstream movies are hypothesized to rely mainly on other sources of information. Thus, in the latter case the review does not influence the moviegoer, but may still be a reflection of the ultimate success of the movie (predictor effect). Using the Dutch film industry as our empirical setting, we study the effects of reviews on the opening weekend and on the cumulative box office revenue. Our research shows that the number and size of film reviews in Dutch newspapers directly influence the behavior of the art-movie-going public in their film choice. The number and size of film reviews of mainstream movies, on the other hand, only predict movie performance.
Gerda GemserEmail:
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13.
The relationship between the judgments of professional reviewers and the economic success of cultural products, such as motion pictures, has been the topic of controversial debates involving both scholars and industry experts. This study builds on previous research that distinguishes an ??influencer effect?? of reviews from a ??predictor effect.?? By empirically separating consumers?? and reviewers?? perceptions of movie quality through an auxiliary regression approach (and thus effectively controls for consumers?? quality perceptions), this study advances the discussion by investigating whether and how isolated reviewer quality perceptions are associated with box office results. The authors empirically test a non-linear effect of reviewers?? quality perceptions on box office returns, including a comprehensive investigation of the moderating forces of this relationship, using regression and simple slope analyses. Data from all 1,370 narrative films released in the United States between 1998 and 2006 reveal that though the short-term box office generally is not influenced by isolated reviewer quality perceptions, a non-linear relationship exists between reviews and long-term box office returns, such that films rated highly by reviewers are more strongly influenced than those that are not. In terms of moderators, the authors find evidence for several arthouse and mainstream characteristics to moderate the relationship between isolated reviewer quality perceptions and box office results.  相似文献   

14.
This report focuses on state government appropriations to state arts agencies (SAA), a primary figure in arts and cultural policy in the United States. A dynamic panel-data estimator can identify the fiscal, institutional, and demographic determinants on SAA appropriations. Agency budgets are particularly sensitive to past appropriations, past state revenues and NEA grants, some demographic variables, party control of state government, and state budgeting rules. Federal funds attract, rather than crowd out, state appropriations. While the influence of some demographic variables may be shifting over time, income growth continues to explain much of SAA appropriations.
Douglas S. NoonanEmail:
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15.
This paper considers the use of evidence for government decision-making using ethnographically informed data from the lived experiences of those involved in British cultural policy. It does this in order to engage and extend work that has sought to defend bureaucratic forms of activity. The paper offers an empirical case study of how the civil servants’ ethic of office [DuGay, P. (2008) ‘Max weber and the moral economy of office’, Journal of Cultural Economy, vol. 1, no. 2, pp. 129–144] is reinforced by the identity of the social scientist. The use of social science in policy advice is a moment where the bureaucrats are able to distance themselves from political decision-making, thus reasserting an important aspect of civil service practice and identity. However, as the latter part of the article illustrates, the dynamics of cultural policy-making, in particular the use of economics, situate the role of social science as paradoxical. It is both supportive and corrosive of the bureaucratic ethic. This paradox is the basis for a critical perspective on the ethic of office as deployed in contemporary government.  相似文献   

16.
This paper presents an empirical study of the determinants of a motion picture's financial success. Among the many factors which are included in this study, we find that quality and marketing expenditures are important determinants. Film ratings, production cost, and the presence of star performers are only important determinants when marketing is not included. We find that marketing expenditures are positively related to production costs, winning Academy Awards and the presence of major stars.Claremont McKenna College and Wayne State University respectively. Our thanks to Professors Eleanor Brown and Ken Inman for many valuable suggestions.  相似文献   

17.
This paper examines the economic accomplishments of individual members in a Performing Rights Organization (PRO), sometimes referred to as a Performing Rights Society. Today, there is the growing importance of intellectual property and copyright protection for authors and creators of literary, dramatic, musical, artistic and other intellectual works. The digital age has placed added pressure on songwriters, lyricists and composers in their ability to derive economic benefits from their intellectual creativity in the form of a copyright. Copyright laws protect and enable the creation of music by allowing authors and composers to license the control and use of their creations, and receive compensation in the form of royalty payments for their work. The PROs license, collect and distribute royalty payments for non-dramatic public performances of copyrighted musical works created and owned by its members or affiliates. In this paper, skewness and heavy tail of returns in the form of member royalty payments are estimated using the skew-normal and skew-t distributions in a parametric approach. We found strong evidence of the so-called ‘superstar effect’ in which the average royalty payment made by a PRO is still dominated by extreme outcomes, and relatively few members earned a substantial share of royalty payments from blockbuster hits that have endured over time. There is little evidence of smaller niche members dominating or replacing the ‘superstars.’ Economists and others will benefit from this empirical study which emphasizes a new understanding of the music industry from a PRO, member royalty payment and performance copyright perspective.  相似文献   

18.
Film studios have spent the past two decades lobbying extensively to establish new legislation restricting access to copyrighted materials online. While there is growing evidence of the effect film piracy has on studio profits, the evidence on the impact of anti-piracy legislation is limited. If anti-piracy legislation is having the film industry’s desired impact, we would expect film revenues to be consistently higher following the passage of major laws that restrict access to pirated content, or major enforcement actions, such as the shutdown of Web sites that provide illegal content for download. This paper applies an intervention analysis approach to weekly data on movie box-office revenues in the USA to determine whether the passage of new anti-piracy policy has generated significant changes in box-office revenues during the period from 1997 to the present. These effects are evaluated in both the short and long term, which allows an assessment of the duration of effectiveness of government actions. The results show that four of the six included policies are ineffective in the long term and those policies that do impact revenues in the short term often harm film studios, rather than help them.  相似文献   

19.
What determines the market value of a star? This paper examines the size of fixed payments to leading actors in the U.S. motion picture industry from a sample of contracts between 1959 and 1989. Competing explanations for the size of compensation, including rent capture, risk sharing, signalling, and portfolio optimization by studio executives are explored. The size of fixed payment across all contract types moves with an actor's history of participating in top-20 grossing films over the past five, ten, fifteen, and twenty films. Further, the impact of past top-20 successes is enhanced by the length of the actor's career. When contracts are divided into those with both fixed payments and share payments and those with only fixed payments, the fixed payment in two-part share contracts is influenced to some extent by risk concerns, in addition to the actor's star power. Fixed-payment-only contracts are most strongly influenced by measures of signalling and star power. Data on both types of contract provide strong support for the rent-capture theory: actors are paid rents upfront for the star value they add to the production.  相似文献   

20.
Abstract

Both fans and critics of Lars von Trier's work would likely agree with his capacity to make his audience suffer. This essay canvasses the devices through which the suffering of women in von Trier's melodramas is rendered excruciating to watch. Drawing on Deleuze's influential account of masochism, the first part of the essay discusses how von Trier's film Dogville foregrounds the complicated relationship that suffering has with pleasure and power. The second part of the essay focuses on the temporal dynamics of melodrama and the creative ways in which Lars von Trier disturbs the rhythms of suffering on screen. In particular I argue that von Trier introduces intervals of ‘dead time’ that make the passage of time itself painful to the audience and that open up a larger cultural history of temporal disorder. This part of the essay looks back to von Trier's early experiments with time in Psychomobile 1: The World Clock (2000) and forward to more recent innovative play with time and movement in Melancholia (2011) to make the case for rethinking the temporal dimensions of mediated suffering and the significance of time in the work of Lars von Trier.  相似文献   

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