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1.
Stage-sequential (or multiphase) growth mixture models are useful for delineating potentially different growth processes across multiple phases over time and for determining whether latent subgroups exist within a population. These models are increasingly important as social behavioral scientists are interested in better understanding change processes across distinctively different phases, such as before and after an intervention. One of the less understood issues related to the use of growth mixture models is how to decide on the optimal number of latent classes. The performance of several traditionally used information criteria for determining the number of classes is examined through a Monte Carlo simulation study in single- and multiphase growth mixture models. For thorough examination, the simulation was carried out in 2 perspectives: the models and the factors. The simulation in terms of the models was carried out to see the overall performance of the information criteria within and across the models, whereas the simulation in terms of the factors was carried out to see the effect of each simulation factor on the performance of the information criteria holding the other factors constant. The findings not only support that sample size adjusted Bayesian Information Criterion would be a good choice under more realistic conditions, such as low class separation, smaller sample size, or missing data, but also increase understanding of the performance of information criteria in single- and multiphase growth mixture models.  相似文献   

2.
This study investigated the optimal strategy for model specification search under the latent growth modeling (LGM) framework, specifically on searching for the correct polynomial mean or average growth model when there is no a priori hypothesized model in the absence of theory. In this simulation study, the effectiveness of different starting models on the search of the true mean growth model was investigated in terms of the mean and within-subject variance-covariance (V-C) structure model. The results showed that specifying the most complex (i.e., unstructured) within-subject V-C structure with the use of LRT, ΔAIC, and ΔBIC achieved the highest recovery rate (>85%) of the true mean trajectory. Implications of the findings and limitations are discussed.  相似文献   

3.
Growth mixture modeling (GMM) is a useful statistical method for longitudinal studies because it includes features of both latent growth modeling (LGM) and finite mixture modeling. This Monte Carlo simulation study explored the impact of ignoring 3 types of time series processes (i.e., AR(1), MA(1), and ARMA(1,1)) in GMM and manipulated the separation of the latent classes, the strength of the time series process, and whether the errors conformed to the time series process in 1 or 2 latent classes. The results showed that omitting time series processes resulted in more serious bias in parameter estimation as the distance between classes increased. However, when the class distances were small, ignoring time series processes contributed to the selection of the correct number of classes. When the GMM models correctly specified the time series process, only models with an AR(1) time series process produced unbiased parameter estimates in most conditions. It was also found that among design factors manipulated, the distance between classes prominently affected the identification of the number of classes and parameter estimation.  相似文献   

4.
The latent growth model (LGM) in structural equation modeling (SEM) may be extended to allow for the modeling of associations among multiple latent growth trajectories, resulting in a multiple domain latent growth model (MDLGM). While the MDLGM is conceived as a more powerful multivariate analysis technique, the examination of its methodological performance is very limited. Hence, the present study compared the power of the MDLGM with that of a set of univariate LGMs for detecting group differences in growth rates over time using a Monte Carlo study with a two-group and two-domain design. The results indicated that there were different scenarios where the power rates for the MDLGM were greater than that of the set of LGMs (and vice versa) due to a joint function of the two domains’ intercorrelation size and the group difference effect size.  相似文献   

5.
This simulation study focused on the power for detecting group differences in linear growth trajectory parameters within the framework of structural equation modeling (SEM) and compared the latent growth modeling (LGM) approach to the more traditional repeated-measures analysis of variance (ANOVA) approach. Several patterns of group differences in linear growth trajectories were considered. SEM growth modeling consistently showed higher statistical power for detecting group differences in the linear growth slope than repeated-measures ANOVA. For small group differences in the growth trajectories, large sample size (e.g., N > 500) would be required for adequate statistical power. For medium or large group differences, moderate or small sample size would be sufficient for adequate power. Some future research directions are discussed.  相似文献   

6.
This research focuses on the problem of model selection between the latent change score (LCS) model and the autoregressive cross-lagged (ARCL) model when the goal is to infer the longitudinal relationship between variables. We conducted a large-scale simulation study to (a) investigate the conditions under which these models return statistically (and substantively) different results concerning the presence of bivariate longitudinal relationships, and (b) ascertain the relative performance of an array of model selection procedures when such different results arise. The simulation results show that the primary sources of differences in parameter estimates across models are model parameters related to the slope factor scores in the LCS model (specifically, the correlation between the intercept factor and the slope factor scores) as well as the size of the data (specifically, the number of time points and sample size). Among several model selection procedures, correct selection rates were higher when using model fit indexes (i.e., comparative fit index, root mean square error of approximation) than when using a likelihood ratio test or any of several information criteria (i.e., Akaike’s information criterion, Bayesian information criterion, consistent AIC, and sample-size-adjusted BIC).  相似文献   

7.
This simulation study examined the performance of the curve-of-factors model (COFM) when autocorrelation and growth processes were present in the first-level factor structure. In addition to the standard curve-of factors growth model, 2 new models were examined: one COFM that included a first-order autoregressive autocorrelation parameter, and a second model that included first-order autoregressive and moving average autocorrelation parameters. The results indicated that the estimates of the overall trend in the data were accurate regardless of model specification across most conditions. Variance components estimates were biased across many conditions but improved as sample size and series length increased. In general, the two models that incorporated autocorrelation parameters performed well when sample size and series length were large. The COFM had the best overall performance.  相似文献   

8.
The authors investigated 2 issues concerning the power of latent growth modeling (LGM) in detecting linear growth: the effect of the number of repeated measurements on LGM's power in detecting linear growth and the comparison between LGM and some other approaches in terms of power for detecting linear growth. A Monte Carlo simulation design was used, with 3 crossed factors (growth magnitude, number of repeated measurements, and sample size) and 1,000 replications within each cell condition. The major findings were as follows: For 3 repeated measurements, a substantial proportion of samples failed to converge in structural equation modeling; the number of repeated measurements did not show any effect on the statistical power of LGM in detecting linear growth; and the LGM approach outperformed both the dependent t test and repeated-measures analysis of variance (ANOVA) in terms of statistical power for detecting growth under the conditions of small growth magnitude and small to moderate sample size conditions. The multivariate repeated-measures ANOVA approach consistently underperformed the other tests.  相似文献   

9.
Just as growth mixture models are useful with single-phase longitudinal data, multiphase growth mixture models can be used with multiple-phase longitudinal data. One of the practically important issues in single- and multiphase growth mixture models is the sample size requirements for accurate estimation. In a Monte Carlo simulation study, the sample sizes required for using these models are investigated under various theoretical and realistic conditions. In particular, the relationship between the sample size requirement and the number of indicator variables is examined, because the number of indicators can be relatively easily controlled by researchers in many multiphase data collection settings such as ecological momentary assessment. The findings not only provide tangible information about required sample sizes under various conditions to help researchers, but they also increase understanding of sample size requirements in single- and multiphase growth mixture models.  相似文献   

10.
The cohort growth model (CGM) is a method for estimating the parameters of a latent growth model (LGM) based on cross-sectional data. The CGM models the interindividual differences in the growth rate, and it models how subjects’ growth rate is related to their initial status. We derive model identification for the CGM and illustrate, in a simulation study, that the CGM provides unbiased parameter estimates in most simulation conditions. Based on empirical data we compare the estimates of the CGM with the estimates of the LGM. The results were comparable for both models. Although the estimates of the (co)-variances were different, the estimates of both models led to similar conclusions on the developmental change. Finally, we discuss the advantages and limitations of the CGM, and we provide recommendations for its use in empirical research.  相似文献   

11.
Despite the widespread popularity of growth curve analysis, few studies have investigated robust growth curve models. In this article, the t distribution is applied to model heavy-tailed data and contaminated normal data with outliers for growth curve analysis. The derived robust growth curve models are estimated through Bayesian methods utilizing data augmentation and Gibbs sampling algorithms. The analysis of mathematical development data shows that the robust latent basis growth curve model better describes the mathematical growth trajectory than the corresponding normal growth curve model and can reveal the individual differences in mathematical development. Simulation studies further confirm that the robust growth curve models significantly outperform the normal growth curve models for both heavy-tailed t data and normal data with outliers but lose only slight efficiency for normal data. It appears convincing to replace the normal distribution with the t distribution for growth curve analysis. Three information criteria are evaluated for model selection. Online software is also provided for conducting robust analysis discussed in this study.  相似文献   

12.
Popular longitudinal models allow for prediction of growth trajectories in alternative ways. In latent class growth models (LCGMs), person-level covariates predict membership in discrete latent classes that each holistically define an entire trajectory of change (e.g., a high-stable class vs. late-onset class vs. moderate-desisting class). In random coefficient growth models (RCGMs, also known as latent curve models), however, person-level covariates separately predict continuously distributed latent growth factors (e.g., an intercept vs. slope factor). This article first explains how complex and nonlinear interactions between predictors and time are recovered in different ways via LCGM versus RCGM specifications. Then a simulation comparison illustrates that, aside from some modest efficiency differences, such predictor relationships can be recovered approximately equally well by either model—regardless of which model generated the data. Our results also provide an empirical rationale for integrating findings about prediction of individual change across LCGMs and RCGMs in practice.  相似文献   

13.
This study examined the performance of 4 correlation-based fit indexes (marginal and conditional pseudo R 2s; average and conditional concordance correlations) in detecting misspecification in mean structures in growth curve models. Their performance was also compared to that of 4 traditional SEM fit indexes. We found that the marginal pseudo R 2 and average concordance correlation were able to detect misspecification in the marginal mean structure (average change trajectory). The conditional pseudo R 2 and concordance correlation could detect misspecification when it occurred in the conditional mean structure (individual change trajectory) or in both mean structures. Compared to the SEM fit indexes, the correlation-based fit indexes were more robust to sample size but were less robust to data properties such as magnitude of population mean and measurement error. Theoretical and practical implications of the results and directions for future research are discussed.  相似文献   

14.
Individual growth trajectories of psychological phenomena are often theorized to be nonlinear. Additionally, individuals’ measurement schedules might be unique. In a structural equation framework, latent growth curve model (LGM) applications typically have either (a) modeled nonlinearity assuming some degree of balance in measurement schedules, or (b) accommodated truly individually varying time points, assuming linear growth. This article describes how to fit 4 popular nonlinear LGMs (polynomial, shape-factor, piecewise, and structured latent curve) with truly individually varying time points, via a definition variable approach. The extension is straightforward for certain nonlinear LGMs (e.g., polynomial and structured latent curve) but in the case of shape-factor LGMs requires a reexpression of the model, and in the case of piecewise LGMs requires introduction of a general framework for imparting piecewise structure, along with tools for its automation. All 4 nonlinear LGMs with individually varying time scores are demonstrated using an empirical example on infant weight, and software syntax is provided. The discussion highlights some advantages of modeling nonlinear growth within structural equation versus multilevel frameworks, when time scores individually vary.  相似文献   

15.
This article applies Bollen’s (1996) 2-stage least squares/instrumental variables (2SLS/IV) approach for estimating the parameters in an unconditional and a conditional second-order latent growth model (LGM). First, the 2SLS/IV approach for the estimation of the means and the path coefficients in a second-order LGM is derived. An empirical example is then used to show that 2SLS/IV yields estimates that are similar to maximum likelihood (ML) in the estimation of a conditional second-order LGM. Three subsequent simulation studies are then presented to show that the new approach is as accurate as ML and that it is more robust against misspecifications of the growth trajectory than ML. Together, these results suggest that 2SLS/IV should be considered as an alternative to the commonly applied ML estimator.  相似文献   

16.
论区域经济增长的动力模型   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  
经济增长理论研究方法的缺陷，使之在解释区域经济增长动力方面缺乏说服力。为解决区域经济系统的动力问题，作者提出了一个区域经济增长的动力模型，认为经济增长的推动力来源于制度，投资技术，企业家等四方面，在不同的发展阶段，各个推动力的作用是不同的，而且只有当其形成合力时，才能以最低成本获得经济增长。随后，作者应用该模型分析了目前中国经济增长的推动力问题，并指出落后的传统文化阻碍了西部的发展，而资金和技术是解决目前西部发展的关键；相对而言，东部地区提高推动力的关键是加强管理和创新。  相似文献   

17.
Recent advances have enabled diagnostic classification models (DCMs) to accommodate longitudinal data. These longitudinal DCMs were developed to study how examinees change, or transition, between different attribute mastery statuses over time. This study examines using longitudinal DCMs as an approach to assessing growth and serves three purposes: (1) to define and evaluate two reliability measures to be used in the application of longitudinal DCMs; (2) through simulation, demonstrate that longitudinal DCM growth estimates have increased reliability compared to longitudinal item response theory models; and (3) through an empirical analysis, illustrate the practical and interpretive benefits of longitudinal DCMs. A discussion describes how longitudinal DCMs can be used as practical and reliable psychometric models when categorical and criterion‐referenced interpretations of growth are desired.  相似文献   

18.
Applying item response theory models to repeated observations has demonstrated great promise in developmental research. By allowing the researcher to take account of the characteristics of both item response and measurement error in longitudinal trajectory analysis, it improves the reliability and validity of latent growth curve analysis. This has enabled the study, to differentially weigh individual items and examine developmental stability and change over time, to propose a comprehensive modeling framework, combining a measurement model with a structural model. Despite a large number of components requiring attention, this study focuses on model formulation, evaluates the performance of the estimators of model parameters, incorporates prior knowledge from Bayesian analysis, and applies the model using an illustrative example. It is hoped that this fundamental study can demonstrate the breadth of this unified latent growth curve model.  相似文献   

19.
Latent growth curve models are widely used in the social and behavioral sciences to study complex developmental patterns of change over time. The trajectories of these developmental patterns frequently exhibit distinct segments in the studied variables. Latent growth models with piecewise functions for repeated measurements of variables have become increasingly popular for modeling such developmental trajectories. A major problem with using piecewise models is determining the precise location of the point where the change in the process has occurred and uncovering the related number of segments. The purpose of this paper is to introduce an optimization procedure that can be used to determine both the segments and location of the knots in piecewise linear latent growth models. The procedure is illustrated using empirical data in order to detect the number of segments and change points. The results demonstrate the capabilities of the procedure for fitting latent growth curve models.  相似文献   

20.
This study evaluates four growth prediction models—projection, student growth percentile, trajectory, and transition table—commonly used to forecast (and give schools credit for) middle school students' future proficiency. Analyses focused on vertically scaled summative mathematics assessments, and two performance standards conditions (high rigor and low rigor) were examined. Results suggest that, when “status plus growth” is the accountability metric a state uses to reward or sanction schools, growth prediction models offer value above and beyond status‐only accountability systems in most, but not all, circumstances. Predictive growth models offer little value beyond status‐only systems if the future target proficiency cut score is rigorous. Conversely, certain models (e.g., projection) provide substantial additional value when the future target cut score is relatively low. In general, growth prediction models' predictive value is limited by a lack of power to detect students who are truly on‐track. Limitations and policy implications are discussed, including the utility of growth projection models in assessment and accountability systems organized around ambitious college‐readiness goals.  相似文献   

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