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1.
In this paper we apply a recently-developed statistical model that explicitly accounts for the extreme uncertainty surrounding film returns. The conditional distribution of box-office returns is analyzed using the stable distribution regression model. The regression coefficients in this model represent what is known about the correlates of film success while at the same time permitting the variance of film success at the box office to be infinite. The empirical analysis shows that the conditional distribution of film returns has infinite variance, and this invalidates statistical inferences from the often-applied least-squares regression model. The estimates of the stable regression confirm some earlier results on the statistics of the movie business and the analysis demonstrates how to model box-office success in the movie business where “nobody knows anything”. 相似文献
2.
In the last decade, attendance at movie theaters has been relatively stagnant, while sales of digital versatile discs (DVDs)
have grown dramatically. In this paper, we look at the factors determining sales of individual DVDs in the United States.
Using data on new motion pictures released on DVD between 2006 and 2008, we find the demand for new DVDs is price-inelastic
and that DVD sales are counter-cyclical. We find that previous box office success has strong positive effects on DVD sales.
Production budget also has a positive effect on DVD sales, albeit indirectly through its effect on box office revenues. Critical
acclaim has significant positive effects on both box office revenue and DVD sales, but the effect is smaller in regard to
DVDs. There is some evidence to suggest that DVD sales are higher for movies with more sexual content and more violent content
and lower for movies with more profanity, but these effects are indirect through the changes in the box office of these movies.
We find that sales of R-rated DVDs are not as dependent upon critical acclaim as movies of other ratings, and are thus less
risky for movie studios to produce. Our findings provide another explanation for the R-rating puzzle. 相似文献
3.
Uncertainty in the Movie Industry: Does Star Power Reduce the Terror of the Box Office? 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Everyone knows that the movie business is risky. But how risky is it? Do strategies exist that reduce risk? We investigate these questions using a sample of over 2000 motion pictures. We discover that box-office revenues are asymptotically Pareto-distributed and have infinite variance. The mean is dominated by rare blockbuster movies that are located in the far right tail. There is no typical movie because box-office revenue outcomes do not converge to an average: revenues diverge over all scales. The studio model of risk management lacks a foundation in theory or evidence, and revenue forecasts have zero precision. Movies are complex products and the cascade of information among film-goers during the course of a film's run can evolve along so many paths that it is impossible to attribute the success of a movie to individual causal factors. The audience makes a movie a hit and no amount of “star power” or marketing can alter that. The real star is the movie. 相似文献
4.
How does the market react to news regarding large uncertain projects? We analyze stock market reactions to information about changes in opening dates of movies, and present two main findings. First, we find systematic negative stock price responses to the scheduling changes we consider, suggesting that any changes are interpreted as bad news by the market. Second, we find that the market reaction is greater for movies with higher production costs, but is unrelated to subsequent box office revenues. This may point to a limited ability of the market to predict the box office performance of a movie, and to increased sensitivity of the market to cost effects, which are easier to forecast. 相似文献
5.
Major Hollywood studios typically release new movies in North America in one of the two ways, wide release or platform release. In this paper, we investigate how release form affects the demand of a new movie after it is nationally released. In particular, we focus on movies for which the platform release is pre-planned to make the problem tractable. We estimate our model using a sample of Hollywood movies that eventually received nationwide release from 1999 to 2003. Our results show that platform release shifts consumers’ perception of unobservable movie appeal through its first stage performance, which turns out to be a stronger effect than that of advertising. Meanwhile, we find that the demand for platform movies decays faster than for wide release ones after their national release. Using counterfactual analysis, we find that more than half of the platform movies which later went to national release would have earned higher profits if they had been given a wide release. 相似文献
6.
Timothy King 《Journal of Cultural Economics》2007,31(3):171-186
In a market characterized by a very large number of consumers, irregularly and infrequently choosing from a constantly changing
menu of possibilities, widely available impartial information and advice would be expected to make a significant impact on
demand. In the U.S. in 2003, however, there was zero correlation between critical ratings for films and gross box office earnings.
For movies released on more than 1,000 screens, critical ratings were indeed positively related to gross earnings, and, together
with production budgets and the number of opening screens, explained more than half the variance. But films with only limited
opening release received higher average ratings. This is especially the case for foreign movies and documentaries but also
true for American films, whose ratings, though positively related to the box office, seldom have enough influence to propel
a movie into later wide exhibition or high earnings.
相似文献
| Timothy KingEmail: |
7.
In recent years, Australian films have failed to capture the public’s attention at the Australian box office. Why? Do Australians have an aversion to their own films? Or does the release strategy—advertising/publicity expenditure and opening number of screens—explain the lacklustre performance? We find that even though Australian films are generally advertised more heavily and released more widely than non-Australian films, ceteris paribus, they earn less at the box office. We also analyse a subsample of our data for which Film Finance Corporation funding information is available and find that government subsidies have no impact on a film’s financial success at the box office. 相似文献
8.
Gerda Gemser Martine Van Oostrum Mark A. A. M. Leenders 《Journal of Cultural Economics》2007,31(1):43-63
Critics and their reviews can play an important role in consumer decision making in general, and film choice in particular.
In this study, we propose that consumers of art house movies are being led by film reviews when making a film choice (influence
effect), whereas consumers of mainstream movies are hypothesized to rely mainly on other sources of information. Thus, in
the latter case the review does not influence the moviegoer, but may still be a reflection of the ultimate success of the
movie (predictor effect). Using the Dutch film industry as our empirical setting, we study the effects of reviews on the opening
weekend and on the cumulative box office revenue. Our research shows that the number and size of film reviews in Dutch newspapers
directly influence the behavior of the art-movie-going public in their film choice. The number and size of film reviews of
mainstream movies, on the other hand, only predict movie performance.
相似文献
| Gerda GemserEmail: |
9.
10.
Previous studies of the movie industry have raised questions concerning the problematic relationship between the success-related
aspects of artistic excellence and commercial appeal. The present article proposes that—when the former is measured by industry
recognition (Oscars and other awards) and the latter by market performance (box office and video rentals) and when the former
hinges on the evaluative judgments of reviewers and consumers (ratings of excellence) and the latter on the level of buzz
among these audience members (amount of attention, word of mouth, or click of mouse)—the two phenomena are essentially separable
as independent paths to conceptually distinct and empirically uncorrelated aspects of motion-picture success. An analysis
of data for 190 movies from the year 2003 shows that reviewer-and-consumer evaluations and buzz respond differently to a film’s
marketing clout (production budget, opening screens, and opening box office) and that these audience responses contribute
independently to a film’s industry recognition and market performance along two separable paths. These findings suggest various
implications for movie marketers, film producers, actors or actresses, and other members of the motion-picture industry.
相似文献
| Michela AddisEmail: |
11.
Thorsten Hennig-Thurau André Marchand Barbara Hiller 《Journal of Cultural Economics》2012,36(3):249-283
The relationship between the judgments of professional reviewers and the economic success of cultural products, such as motion pictures, has been the topic of controversial debates involving both scholars and industry experts. This study builds on previous research that distinguishes an ??influencer effect?? of reviews from a ??predictor effect.?? By empirically separating consumers?? and reviewers?? perceptions of movie quality through an auxiliary regression approach (and thus effectively controls for consumers?? quality perceptions), this study advances the discussion by investigating whether and how isolated reviewer quality perceptions are associated with box office results. The authors empirically test a non-linear effect of reviewers?? quality perceptions on box office returns, including a comprehensive investigation of the moderating forces of this relationship, using regression and simple slope analyses. Data from all 1,370 narrative films released in the United States between 1998 and 2006 reveal that though the short-term box office generally is not influenced by isolated reviewer quality perceptions, a non-linear relationship exists between reviews and long-term box office returns, such that films rated highly by reviewers are more strongly influenced than those that are not. In terms of moderators, the authors find evidence for several arthouse and mainstream characteristics to moderate the relationship between isolated reviewer quality perceptions and box office results. 相似文献
12.
Francis L. F. Lee 《Journal of Cultural Economics》2009,33(4):239-263
This study uses the Academy Awards as a window to look into how cultural differences influence the reception of U.S. movies
in East Asia. Following the recent research on the concept of cultural discount and the argument that the Academy Awards are
indicators of cinematic qualities and achievement, the research questions focus on whether different types of cinematic qualities
and achievement would be discounted by cultural differences to different extents. More specifically, a distinction between
drama and non-drama awards is made, and it is argued that the cinematic qualities and achievement indicated by the drama awards
are likely to be relatively more culturally specific and hence more likely to be discounted by cultural differences. The empirical
analysis examines the box office performance of 585 U.S. movies from 2002 to 2007 in nine East Asian markets. It shows that
non-drama awards relate positively to box office receipts, but drama awards relate negatively to box office receipts. Moreover,
the negative relationship between drama awards and box office receipts is stronger in countries more culturally distant from
the U.S. The findings are therefore highly supportive to the conceptual arguments. Other implications of the findings are
also discussed. 相似文献
13.
Digital broadcast technologies have expanded the virtual capacity of live performing arts venues, but they have also raised concerns about possible cannibalisation of box office revenues. We report the results of a quasi-field experiment involving the Royal National Theatre’s live broadcasts of theatre to digital cinemas in the UK and find that, if anything, live broadcasts generate greater, not fewer, audiences at the theatre. 相似文献
14.
Jordi McKenzie 《Journal of Cultural Economics》2010,34(3):159-179
This study considers the Australian DVD industry using a data set of retail sales for over 44,800 titles 1997–2007. A sub-sample
of 760 titles which also received an initial theatrical release reveals that the DVD revenue distribution has thicker tails
than the theatrical revenue distribution implying the top-ranked DVDs earning a greater share of revenues than their theatrical
contemporaries. A comparison of revenues finds not only a high degree of correlation between the two markets, but a relationship
that is nonlinear and increasing at higher theatrical revenue levels. This finding is consistent with a word-of-mouth momentum
effect and more institutional flexibility in the DVD market. The high levels of correlation are present across all genres/ratings
and are observed to be stronger for large release titles. Finally, a seemingly unrelated regression structure is proposed
to jointly consider the two markets, which is shown to be empirically valid. 相似文献
15.
Jordi McKenzie 《Journal of Cultural Economics》2009,33(4):279-299
This study considers a frailty duration approach to modelling the life-length of a sample of 360 films that went into wide
release at the Australian box office from 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2005. The analysis extends previous research by
considering a range of film-specific covariates relating to distribution, production, consumer signals, and weekly performance.
In particular, it is shown that film success (defined in a duration context) responds to previewing, advertising, critical
reviews, and US box office—but not to production budget, star power or opening-week screens. The study also reveals that it
is appropriate to account for unobservable heterogeneity between films in the choice of empirical methodology. 相似文献
16.
We address the question of the quality of movies produced between 1950 and 1970. A first outcome of our analysis is that the quality assessments made during the Cannes Festival, and to a lesser degree, by the U.S. Academy are short-lasting. In contrast to this, consumers seem consistent over time. There is, however, one issue on which experts agree as well as consumers: American movies dominate both in terms of commercial success and in terms of quality. There is less agreement, and sometimes there is even dissent concerning other dimensions. This does not come as a surprise and merely indicates that there is hardly a common yardstick along which the quality of a movie can be measured. Therefore, decomposing a work of art into quantifiable characteristics – even in a subjective but possibly unanimous way – would make it possible to explain the divergences between audiences and changes of appreciation over time. 相似文献
17.
This paper examines the relationship between star power and box office revenues using box office data from nine countries
and a continuous measure of star power based on the number of visits to a star’s web page on IMDB, the most popular web site
for movie-related information. The degree of star power is computed for the top star, top three stars, and the director for
the films in our sample. The results indicate that replacing an average star with a top star would increase revenues by an
average of 16,618,570, while replacing three average stars with three top stars would increase revenues by an average of16,618,570, while replacing three average stars with three top stars would increase revenues by an average of
64,410,381. 相似文献
18.
Diversity in teams and the success of cultural products 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
This study investigates what is necessary to create successful intercultural motion pictures. We test hypotheses on the effects of (1) the production team and the cast composition (team members’ cultural backgrounds, industry tenure, social networks, education, star status, age, and gender) and (2) film characteristics (set locations, movie genre) on the overall performance of German movies at home and abroad. The empirical results demonstrate that offering cultural familiarity (teams from a diverse cultural background, international settings) provides a sense of familiarity to audiences outside the domestic market and enhances the performance of the film abroad. Yet, domestic success depends on different factors. These issues are underexplored because producers can rarely build on systematic research when attempting to customize films to different cultural settings. The paper shows how to target international audiences more effectively. 相似文献
19.
Ana Suárez-Vázquez 《Journal of Cultural Economics》2011,35(2):119-135
Most research into the film industry focuses on aggregate level market analysis of a range of devices used by the industry
to ensure the success of its films. In contrast, in this paper, we experimentally test how individual cinema-goers are influenced
by two variables that have aroused considerable interest in the literature: critical reviews and the role of box office stars.
As regards the former, the results of our experiment indicate that negative reviews by film critics are cues that affect cinema-goers’
pre-film assessment of a film yet fail to exert any effect on post-film assessment. As regards the latter, a cast of box office
stars is not seen to be an indication of quality per se for our experimental subjects. Nor do box office stars help to mitigate
the potential effects of negative reviews. 相似文献
20.
Tylor Orme 《Journal of Cultural Economics》2014,38(4):351-368
Film studios have spent the past two decades lobbying extensively to establish new legislation restricting access to copyrighted materials online. While there is growing evidence of the effect film piracy has on studio profits, the evidence on the impact of anti-piracy legislation is limited. If anti-piracy legislation is having the film industry’s desired impact, we would expect film revenues to be consistently higher following the passage of major laws that restrict access to pirated content, or major enforcement actions, such as the shutdown of Web sites that provide illegal content for download. This paper applies an intervention analysis approach to weekly data on movie box-office revenues in the USA to determine whether the passage of new anti-piracy policy has generated significant changes in box-office revenues during the period from 1997 to the present. These effects are evaluated in both the short and long term, which allows an assessment of the duration of effectiveness of government actions. The results show that four of the six included policies are ineffective in the long term and those policies that do impact revenues in the short term often harm film studios, rather than help them. 相似文献