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1.
MASS MEDIA AND POLITICAL OUTSPOKENNESS IN HONG KONG: LINKING THE THIRD-PERSON EFFECT AND THE SPIRAL OF SILENCE 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
This study analyzes the impact of perceptions of the opinionsof others on political outspokenness in Hong Kong. Two relatedtheories, the third-person effect and the spiral of silence,are tested in the context of public opinion regarding the Sino-Britishdispute over Hong Kong's political future. To estimate the potentialinfluence of perceived public opinion on political outspokennessduring this political crisis, a representative telephone surveyof 660 respondents in Hong Kong was conducted in November 1993. As hypothesized by the third-person effect, perceptions of theinfluence of media reports about the Sino-British dispute onothers were found to be consistently greater than perceptionsof influence on self. Similar to previous findings, respondentswith a higher level of education were more likely to believethat the mass media influence others more than themselves. Thestudy also found empirical support for the spiral of silencehypothesis. Politically unconcerned respondents were less willingto voice their political opinions publicly when they perceivedthe majority opinion not to be on their side. Findings alsoindicate that the third-person effect indirectly influencesthe spiral of silence process through its impact on perceptionsof public opinion. 相似文献
2.
This paper explores the role of perceptions of the opinionsof others as they relate to the formation of public opinion.Two interrelated theories involving such perceptions, the thirdperson effect and the spiral of silence, are tested in the contextof public opinion regarding divestment of financial interestsin South Africa. As hypothesized by the third person effect, perceptions of theinfluence of media reports on others were found to be consistentlygreater than perceptions of influence on self. Findings werestrongly supportive of this component of the ‘third personeffect’ hypothesis. Perceptions of the opinions of otherswere also explored in relation to respondents' willingness toexpress their opinions publicly. As suggested by the spiralof silence theory, respondents were found to be more willingto express their opinions publicly when they perceived a trendin support of their viewpoint, or when there was a greater perceivedlikelihood of achieving success for their issue position. The size of the effect produced from joining these two processesis moderated by the role of issue salience. People perceivingdivestment as a highly important issue are more likely to ascribegreater media influence to others than to themselves, but theirwillingness to express their opinions publicly is least likelyto be influenced by perceptions of the climate of opinion. 相似文献
3.
Jack Glascock Ph.D. 《广播与电子媒介杂志》2013,57(2):268-281
This research uses disproportionate exemplar distributions in an attempt to create a spiral of silence effect for a controversial issue. No support is found for exemplars predictably causing a spiral of silence. There is mild evidence that perceived opinion can silence "public display expression." More importantly, opinion is found to predict speaking out, a phenomenon most likely associated with a cultural bias effect. 相似文献
4.
Noelle-Neumann's work on the spiral of silence (1974, 1977,1984) has been one of the most significant theoretical developmentsin public opinion research of the past quarter-century. Thetheory is well known among public opinion researchers, and anumber of research efforts have been directed toward examiningspecific parts of the theory. However, the theory is difficultto test, incorporating psychological, social-psychological andsociological variables, including psychological variables andsweeping changes in the social climate of opinion (cf. Noelle-Neumann1984). This study investigated the role of opinion thresholds, socialgroups and weighing of others' opinions in opinion expression.Using Krassa's (1988) computer simulation and modificationsof Noelle-Neumann's (1974) spiral of silence as a base, we testseveral theoretical modifications to the spiral of silence modelusing data gathered from people living in or near six nationalparks in Canada. Primary interest is on the ability of opinionthresholds, social group and weighing of others' opinions topredict the expression of opinion for particular issues. 相似文献
5.
Waipeng Lee Assistant Proffessor Benjamin H. Detenber Lars Willnat Sean Aday Joseph Graf 《亚洲交流杂志》2013,23(2):205-226
This study examines the influence of individual-level characteristics on the spiral of silence effect in two countries, Singapore and the United States, making it the first cross-cultural test of the theory and thereby addressing a gap in the literature highlighted by Schefule and Moy (International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 12, 2000, 3–28). In two identical, representative telephone polls of 668 adults conducted in Singapore and 412 adults in Washington, DC, respondents were asked to indicate how likely they would be to discuss publicly two controversial issues: interracial marriage and equal rights for homosexuals. The proposed model for predicting outspokenness adds a variety of new predictors, such as culturally influenced self-concepts, fear of isolation, and communication apprehension, along with other more traditional predictors of outspokenness, such as a person's perception of the opinion climate, media exposure, issue salience, and demographics. The findings provide partial support for the spiral of silence hypothesis in Singapore, but not in the United States. Respondents’ perception of the future opinion climate in Singapore interacted with issue salience to influence their level of outspokenness; American respondents did not exhibit such an interaction effect. In both countries, however, outspokenness was associated with respondents’ perceived importance of the issue and their communication apprehension. Media exposure was not associated with outspokenness in either country. 相似文献
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Since their beginnings pre-election polls have been under attackfrom politicians and journalists. One of the most fundamentalcriticisms of polls is that they can influence the outcome ofelections. This article investigates news media reporting ofpoll results and comments on public opinion research beforeFederal elections in Germany. It presents empirical findingsfor the quantity as well as the formal and substantial qualityof this press coverage. The database is a content analysis of443 pre-election poll articles published in Germany's leadingdailies Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ), Frankfurter Rundschau(FR), Süddeutsche Zeitung (SZ), and Die Welt (Welt) between1980 and 1994. The quantity of news media reporting of publicopinion polls has improved over the years. Now, poll storiesare a standard feature of German newspapers. The frequency ofreports depends on the conditions of each election—e.g.on the expected closeness of the election outcome. The formalquality could be better—that is the conformity to AAPORstandards. Horse-race journalism isn't found as often as inthe USA. Journalists often use poll results to predict an electionoutcome. Moreover, the analysis revealed an ambivalent relationshipbetween liberal journalists and polls, while the reporting ofconservative journalists is more in favor of opinion research. 相似文献
8.
In this section the International Journal of Public OpinionResearch reviews in a very condensed manner articles which haverecently been published in other journals and which relate tothe field of public opinion research. This section does notaim to give readers a comprehensive insight to particular studies,but rather to alert them to ideas and results that may be linkedto their own work. In order to facilitate orientation to thereader, the reviews are grouped according to the following topics: (1) Politics, Elections and Social Values; (2) Public Opinion on Current Issues; (3) Methodology of Public Opinion Polling; (4) Polls as a Social and Political Factor; (5) Mass Media and Public Opinion. 相似文献
9.
Using the issue of genetically modified foods, this study examines how the Internet may affect the spiral of silence phenomenon in South Korea. More specifically, we explore whether the Internet has created a social environment, where people can exchange opinions more freely without being fearful of social isolation. Analyzing data from an online survey, we first examine whether the Internet can play a role as a source of information, from which people assess the climates of public opinion. Also examined is whether the opinions of netizens can comprise another form of opinion climate, exerting pressure on one's willingness to speak out. Finally, we explore whether expressing an opinion on the Internet is subject to the pressure of opinion climates. Findings suggest that the Internet may play an important role in shaping people's perceptions of opinion climates. Perceived opinion congruence with other people were significantly associated with one's willingness to participate in an online forum, indicating that expressing an opinion on the Internet may be subject to the spiral of silence effect. We conclude that the Internet in South Korea may not have helped to diminish the social pressure that keeps citizens from expressing a minority view. 相似文献
10.
Lars Willnat 《亚洲交流杂志》2013,23(2):47-67
This study analyses the impact of perceptions of the opinions of others on political outspokenness in Hong Kong. Based on the results of two representative telephone surveys conducted in Hong Kong in 1993 and 1995, the spiral of silence theory is tested in the context of public opinion regarding the Sino‐British dispute over Hong Kong's political future and the 1995 Legislative Council election. As hypothesized, respondents in both surveys were more willing to voice their political opinions publicly when they perceived the majority opinion to be on their side, or when they perceived a trend in support of their own political viewpoint. However, this effect was observed only for respondents who were not much concerned about either issue. People's political outspokenness was primarily boosted by higher issue salience, more exposure and attention to television news and news magazines, and higher political interest and efficacy. 相似文献
11.
Does the parliamentary behavior of members of parliament, parliamentaryparties, and government correspond with the public's preferencesregarding political issues? What conditions support the emergenceof congruence between public opinion and public policy? Thesequestions are central concerns of democratic theory. In thispaper, they are investigated empirically for the activitiesin the federal German legislature, the German Bundestag, between1949 and 1990. For this purpose, 94 time series of public opinionpolls have been combined with content analysis of more than3, 000 parliamentary documents (e.g. parliamentary questions,committe reports). If public opinion about a policy matter changes,approximately 60 percent of the respective parliamentary actionsare congruent with the direction of opinion change. The congruencebetween public opinion and public policy is greatest for opinionchanges in a conservative direction when the political statusquo is supported. Even more important than the direction ofopinion change is the public's majority opinion at the timeof parliamentary action. 相似文献
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For from being inevitable, as it may now appear, Clinton's victoryover Bush in the 1992 U.S. presidential election required aconfluence of several largely unforeseen developments. For one,though the U.S. economy was recovering, sluggishly, in late1991 and then more robustly in the election year itself, deeppublic pessimism about the economy's status developed nonetheless,leading to a vague but highly insistent call to ‘Do something!’In addition, the independent candidacy of Ross Perot becameespecially injurious to the Bush campaign, because theTexasbillionaire's attacks on the President appeared so disinterested.Perot cut deeply into the political and attitudinal groups thatin recent elections have been giving generally strong supportto Republican nominees. Despite these and other developmentswhich led to Bush's defeat just 20 months after he had appeareddominant politically, however, the underlying political alignmentof policy and social groups changed little in 1992. 相似文献
13.
Kepplinger Hans Mathias; Donsbach Wolfgang; Brosius Hans-Bernd; Staab Joachim Friedrich 《Int. Journal of Public Opinion Research》1989,1(4):326-342
This study investigates the relationship between media coverageof Helmut Kohl in seven leading German print media and the opinionsof the German general public about the politician between 1975and 1984. For the content analysis evaluative assessments aboutHelmut Kohl on six different dimensions of characteristics werecoded. The analysis of public opinion is based on 72 representativesurveys in which respondents expressed their evaluations ofthe politician. The two time series were compared by means ofcross-lagged correlations. The whole period was first examinedwith aggregations of three-months-intervals; then closer attentionwas paid to the time period since Helmut Kohl took office aschancellor on the basis of monthly intervals. In both cases,the results show that evaluation shifts in the media precedesimilar evaluation shifts in public opinion with a time lagof about three to six months for the whole period of investigation,and a somewhat shorter time lag for the time of his chancellorship.Evaluation shifts in the political magazines Der Spiegel andStern were more closely related to public opinion than evaluationshifts in the national dailies. 相似文献
14.
During the rewriting of its program in the early 1980s, theRassemblement pour la République (RPR) carried out anumber of opinion surveys. The person in charge of this wasnot a member of the inner leadership circle; he warned the partyleader, Jacques Chirac, that themes forming a coherent ‘liberal’program for the transformation of the relationship between citizens,state, and the economy, were not popular with public opinion,which remained attached to progressive taxation and a comprehensivesocial welfare system. The party leadership ignored these warnings.Rather than attempting to align their policies with voter aspirations,their principal use of political communications techniques aimedat improving their leader's image. The person in charge of thiswork was a stranger to politics whose understanding of the waycultural or political attitudes are changed led him to interpretvery fatalistically the chances of influencing election outcomesby communications techniques. His methods were treated withfrank skepticism by party communications colleagues, his client'spersonality was particularly unamenable to his efforts, andhis one successful initiative—the rejuvenation of theexecutive committee—was operated at the cost of a rowin the party. In the case of the RPR, opinion research seemsto have played no role at all in an important party policy review,the causes of which should be sought elsewhere. 相似文献
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Rusciano Frank Louis; Fiske-Rusciano Roberta 《Int. Journal of Public Opinion Research》1990,2(4):305-322
This paper presents a content analysis of the manner in which‘world opinion’ is used in stories and editorialsof two nations' major newspapers. The authors studied the InternationalHerald Tribune and the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung for themonths of February, March, and April 1986 for articles whichcontained implicit or explicit references to ‘world opinion’.These refernces were studied using a pre-designed survey instrument,which analyzed several features of the term's usage. Topicsfor discussion included: (1) the various syonyms for world opinion;(2) the agenda for world opinion; (3) the timing of referenceto particular issues on the agenda; (4) the moral and pragmaticcomponents of world opinion; and (5) the link between worldopinion and the ‘international isolation’ of nationsor individuals. The paper concludes by combining the resultsof the study into a preliminary definition of ‘world opinion’,based upon the common usage of this term. The definition comparesthe characteristics of ‘world opinion’ and ‘publicopinion’, and discusses the possible ramifications ofunderstanding the concept in this manner. 相似文献
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The spiral of silence (SoS) framework elaborates the factors that determine whether individuals are willing to express their opinions in public. Although previous scholarship has examined differences in between face-to-face and computer-mediated communication, research studies have rarely tested how perceived affordances of the channel influence whether individuals express opinions or self-censor. In this study (N = 399), we examine several propositions of SoS within the context of discussing police discrimination on Facebook. To extend the theory’s relevance to social networking sites, we examined how users’ perceptions of network association, social presence, anonymity, and persistence related to opinion expression. Findings indicate support for some of the theory’s original tenets, as well as the role of multiple perceived affordances in determining whether people will express an opinion to their online social network. We discuss the implications for measuring and understanding political expression and silencing on social media as well as offline. 相似文献
17.
In 1997, the British Crown Colony Hong Kong will become a specialadministrative region of the People's Republic of China (PRC).Very recent public opinion polls show that the majority of thepopulation in Hong Kong does not approve of this agreement negotiatedbetween the Chinese and the British governments. Instead, arelative majority of the respondents would prefer to maintainthe status quo. Moreover, twelve per cent of the populationanticipates today not to be living in Hong Kong in the year1997. This figure corresponded to a net outflow of no less than670,000 people, of whom a great deal will belong to those whocontribute to Hong Kong's business and workforce éliteof today. 相似文献
18.
Positive news is advantageous for a party, but the effects ofnegative news are less obvious, especially in a multiparty system.One possibility is an indecisionmodel in which negative informationwould push voters to the undecided category. An alternativeis a proportional model in which voters would move to otherparties in proportion to their share of the vote. A third scenariowould correspond to a proximity model in which the shift wouldbe to parties holding viewpoints similar to those of the criticizedparty. The three models were tested using the ideodynamic modelor the 1994 elections in the Netherlands and Germany. The explanatoryvariables were content analysis data obtained daily for majorprint and electronic news media. The dependent variable wasweekly survey data of party preferences of voters. The analysisshowed the proportional model to be the least plausible withthe proximity model being promising. Campaign strategists startingfrom the proximity model will both promote negative news aboutother parties and adopt their issue positions. 相似文献
19.
［目的/意义］ 梳理网络舆情的研究进展,有助于厘清网络舆情研究的知识基础、传导规律、预警机制和治理策略等之间的内在联系和主题演化路径。［方法/过程］ 首先分析网络舆情的理论知识基础,然后结合现有研究,按照内容递进的规律将网络舆情研究分为影响因素、传导路径、预警机制以及引导治理策略四个主题,采用内容分析法和社会网络分析法对网络舆情进行主题关联关系分析和演化路径探索。［结果/结论］ 结果表明,生命周期理论、认知定势理论、沉默的螺旋、群体极化理论、蝴蝶效应理论和治理理论常作为网络舆情研究的理论知识基础,网络媒介环境、社会结构压力、网民心理、触发性事件、有效动员和社会控制力量六个因素被视为网络舆情演化的重要影响要素,且网络舆情、舆情事件、社交媒体、利益相关者、大数据和信息传播等六个主题与其他研究内容关系较为密切,在主题演化路径中发挥着重要桥接作用。 相似文献
20.
This study examines the triangular relationship of the press,the president and public opinion about the drug issue in theUnited States from 1985 to 1990. Agenda-setting theory servesas the theoretical foundation for the ARIMA time-series analysis,which attempts to address who is driving the public opinionformation process about drugs: the press, the president, orthe public. The study employs a unique method in that ‘mostimportant problem’ survey results from nine organizationsare quilted into a time-series of 70 monthly points to measurethe public agenda. The press agenda is based on a computerizedcontent analysis of the frequency of coverage of the drug issue,and the presidential agenda is based on a similar analysis ofthe presidents’ public relations agendas. The three univariatetime-series are identified, estimated, and diagnosed. Then thewhite-noise component of each is used in a cross-correlationanalysis to address the research question. The results indicatethat public opinion mirrors or immediately follows the press,though public opinion also drives the press agenda. Second,the study suggests that the president is following the publicagenda, though the president also has strong immediate influenceon public opinion. And, finally it suggests the president mirrorsand follows the media, in addition to following public opinion.The trend of opinion, when viewed in relation to the historyof events surrounding the issue, suggests that the public opinionformation process, as measured through the lens of public opinionpolls, may be a matter of public perceptions of the realityof the issue and of the pseudo-realities of information campaignsand presidential and press attention, which may have their originsback in the heart of the public concern. 相似文献