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1.
This study developed a method to determine whether the distribution of individual player performances can be modelled to explain match outcome in team sports, using Australian Rules football as an example. Player-recorded values (converted to a percentage of team total) in 11 commonly reported performance indicators were obtained for all regular season matches played during the 2014 Australian Football League season, with team totals also recorded. Multiple features relating to heuristically determined percentiles for each performance indicator were then extracted for each team and match, along with the outcome (win/loss). A generalised estimating equation model comprising eight key features was developed, explaining match outcome at a median accuracy of 63.9% under 10-fold cross-validation. Lower 75th, 90th and 95th percentile values for team goals and higher 25th and 50th percentile values for disposals were linked with winning. Lower 95th and higher 25th percentile values for Inside 50s and Marks, respectively, were also important contributors. These results provide evidence supporting team strategies which aim to obtain an even spread of goal scorers in Australian Rules football. The method developed in this investigation could be used to quantify the importance of individual contributions to overall team performance in team sports.  相似文献   

2.
The planned peaking for matches or events of perceived greatest priority or difficulty throughout a competitive season is commonplace in high-level team sports. Despite this prevalence in the field, little research exists on the practice. This study aimed to provide a framework for strategic periodisation which team sport organisations can use to evaluate the efficacy of such plans. Data relating to factors potentially influencing the difficulty of matches were obtained for games played in the 2014 Australian Football League season. These included the match location, opposition rank, between-match break and team “form”. Binary logistic regression models were developed to determine the level of association between these factors and match outcome (win/loss). Models were constructed using “fixed” factors available to clubs prior to commencement of the season, and then also “dynamic” factors obtained at monthly intervals throughout the in-season period. The influence of playing away from home on match difficulty became stronger as the season progressed, whilst the opposition rank from the preceding season was the strongest indicator of difficulty across all models. The approaches demonstrated in this paper can be used practically to evaluate both the long- and short-term efficacy of strategic periodisation plans in team sports as well as inform and influence coach programming.  相似文献   

3.
The study examined the “micro-structure” of football practice and the “macro-structure” of participation history of female professional football players. Participants were 29 German 1st league (Bundesliga) players, 14 of whom played on the senior national team (Olympic Champion in 2016). A questionnaire recorded the players’ positions, proportions of physical conditioning, drill-type skill exercises and playing forms within coach-led football practice, and the volume of coach-led practice and peer-led play, in both football and other sports, from childhood to adulthood. Analyses revealed that most athletes played various attacker and defender positions during development. National team players differed from their Bundesliga peers by less physical conditioning and greater proportions of playing forms within football practice. National team players also accumulated less total football practice until age 18 years, but more peer-led football and coach-led practice in other sports compared to their Bundesliga counterparts. Based on these variables, a binary logistic regression classified 93% of the national team and Bundesliga players correctly. Conclusion: A combination of long-term coach-led football practice involving a relatively large proportion of playing forms with considerable childhood/adolescent peer-led football play and coach-led practice in other sports may have facilitated adult performance among German female world-class football players.  相似文献   

4.
Identifying performance differences between juniors at different stages of a talent pathway may assist with the development of prospective talent. This study investigated the relationship between game-based performance indicators and developmental level in junior Australian football (AF). Players were categorised into 2 groups according to developmental level; U16 and U18. Physical and technical skill performance indicators were collated for all U16 (n = 200) and U18 (n = 244) participants of their respective 2014 national championships. Data were acquired from all 28 games (12 U16, 16 U18); resulting in 1360 player observations (568 U16, 792 U18). Microtechnology and a commercial provider facilitated the quantification of 15 performance indicators. Generalised estimating equations (GEEs) modelled the extent to which these performance indicators were associated with developmental level. The GEE model revealed that “contested marks” and “contested possessions” had the strongest association with the U16 level, while “total marks” and “clearances” had the strongest association with the U18 level. The remaining performance indicators were not developmentally discriminant. These results indicate that there are distinctive features of gameplay more associated with the U16 and U18 levels in AF. Coaches may wish to consider these results when constructing training drills designed to minimise developmental gaps.  相似文献   

5.
ABSTRACT

The aim of this study was to assess if tactical and technical performance indicators (PIs) could be used in combination to model match outcomes in Australian Football (AF). A database of 101 technical PIs and 14 tactical PIs from every match in the 2009–2016 Australian Football League (AFL) seasons was merged. Two outcome measures Win-loss and Score margin were used as dependent variables. The top 45 ranked technical and tactical PIs from a feature selection process were used to model match outcome using decision tree and Generalised Linear Models (GLMs). Of the top 45 selected features, this included seven tactical PIs. The Win-loss-based Decision tree model achieved a classification accuracy of 89.0% and GLM 93.2%. A Score margin-based GLM achieved a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 6.9 points. A combined approach to the classification of match outcomes provided no improvement in model accuracy compared with previous literature. However, this study has established the relative importance of technical and tactical measures of performance in relation to successful team performance in AF.  相似文献   

6.
?In team sport, classifying playing position based on a players’ expressed skill sets can provide a guide to talent identification by enabling the recognition of performance attributes relative to playing position. Here, elite junior Australian football players were a priori classified into 1 of 4 common playing positions; forward, midfield, defence, and ruck. Three analysis approaches were used to assess the extent to which 12 in-game skill performance indicators could classify playing position. These were a linear discriminant analysis (LDA), random forest, and a PART decision list. The LDA produced classification accuracy of 56.8%, with class errors ranging from 19.6% (midfielders) to 75.0% (ruck). The random forest model performed at a slightly worse level (51.62%), with class errors ranging from 27.8% (midfielders) to 100% (ruck). The decision list revealed 6 rules capable of classifying playing position at accuracy of 70.1%, with class errors ranging from 14.4% (midfielders) to 100% (ruck). Although the PART decision list produced the greatest relative classification accuracy, the technical skill indicators reported were generally unable to accurately classify players according to their position using the 3 analysis approaches. This player homogeneity may complicate recruitment by constraining talent recruiter’s ability to objectively recognise distinctive positional attributes.  相似文献   

7.
竞技状态是训练学的核心研究概念之一，其会极大地影响运动员竞技表现。竞技表现反映了竞技状态好坏，以往对此内容的研究多集中于优秀运动员个体。为了探讨集体项目中的竞技表现及其影响因素，选择中超联赛作为研究对象。中超联赛是亚洲最好的职业足球联赛之一，代表了中国职业足球的最高水平，受到广泛的关注。通过时间序列分析中的自相关函数和互相关函数对足球比赛表现分析进行实证研究，以2017赛季中国足球超级联赛的240场比赛为样本，探明影响球队竞技状态的表现指标稳定性，并确定对球队战绩影响较大的关键指标。研究结果显示：（1）对联赛排名上游的球队而言，传球成功率、拦截和抢断是较为重要的指标；（2）进球和进攻类指标是强队制胜的关键；（3）联赛排名上游和中游球队比赛表现的整体稳定性要高于下游球队。  相似文献   

8.
竞技状态是训练学的核心研究概念之一，其会极大地影响运动员竞技表现。竞技表现反映了竞技状态好坏，以往对此内容的研究多集中于优秀运动员个体。为了探讨集体项目中的竞技表现及其影响因素，选择中超联赛作为研究对象。中超联赛是亚洲最好的职业足球联赛之一，代表了中国职业足球的最高水平，受到广泛的关注。通过时间序列分析中的自相关函数和互相关函数对足球比赛表现分析进行实证研究，以2017赛季中国足球超级联赛的240场比赛为样本，探明影响球队竞技状态的表现指标稳定性，并确定对球队战绩影响较大的关键指标。研究结果显示：（1）对联赛排名上游的球队而言，传球成功率、拦截和抢断是较为重要的指标；（2）进球和进攻类指标是强队制胜的关键；（3）联赛排名上游和中游球队比赛表现的整体稳定性要高于下游球队。  相似文献   

9.
Using the spatiotemporal characteristics of players, the primary aim of this study was to determine whether differences in collective team behaviour exist in Australian Rules football during different phases of match play. The secondary aim was to determine the extent to which collective team behaviour differed between competing teams and match half. Data was collected via 10 Hz global positioning system devices from a professional club during a 2 × 20 min, 15-v-15-match simulation drill. Five spatiotemporal variables from each team (x centroid, y centroid, length, width, and surface area) were collected and analysed during offensive, defensive, and contested phases. A multivariate analysis of variance comparing phase of match play (offensive, defensive, contested), Team (A & B), and Half (1 & 2) revealed that x-axis centroid and y-axis centroid showed considerable variation during all phases of match play. Length, width, and surface area were typically greater during the offensive phase comparative to defensive and contested phases. Clear differences were observed between teams with large differences recorded for length, width, and surface area during all phases of match play. Spatiotemporal variables that describe collective team behaviour may be used to understand team tactics and styles of play.  相似文献   

10.
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11.
Abstract

The aim of this study was to examine the effects of match location, quality of opposition, and match status on the technical aspects of performance within a single professional British football team. Forty matches from the 2002–2003 and 2003–2004 domestic league seasons were notated post-event using a computerized notational analysis system with 13 on-the-ball behaviours and corresponding outcomes (successful or unsuccessful) assessed. Log-linear modelling procedures indicated that the incidences of all on-the-ball technical behaviours, with the exception of “set-pieces”, were influenced by at least one of the three situation variables, with both independent and interactive effects found. In contrast, logit modelling suggested that there was no general influence of the situation variables on the outcomes of the on-the-ball behaviours. The findings emphasize the need for notational analysts and coaches to consider the potential independent and interactive effects of match location, quality of opposition, and match status when assessing the technical components of football performance, particularly those relating to behaviour occurrence. Future research should consider the effects of additional situation variables purported to influence the mental, physical, technical, and tactical components of football performance.  相似文献   

12.
Identifying match events that are related to match outcome is an important task in football match analysis. Here we have used generalised mixed linear modelling to determine relationships of 16 football match events and 1 contextual variable (game location: home/away) with the match outcome. Statistics of 320 close matches (goal difference ≤ 2) of season 2012–2013 in the Spanish First Division Professional Football League were analysed. Relationships were evaluated with magnitude-based inferences and were expressed as extra matches won or lost per 10 close matches for an increase of two within-team or between-team standard deviations (SD) of the match event (representing effects of changes in team values from match to match and of differences between average team values, respectively). There was a moderate positive within-team effect from shots on target (3.4 extra wins per 10 matches; 99% confidence limits ±1.0), and a small positive within-team effect from total shots (1.7 extra wins; ±1.0). Effects of most other match events were related to ball possession, which had a small negative within-team effect (1.2 extra losses; ±1.0) but a small positive between-team effect (1.7 extra wins; ±1.4). Game location showed a small positive within-team effect (1.9 extra wins; ±0.9). In analyses of nine combinations of team and opposition end-of-season rank (classified as high, medium, low), almost all between-team effects were unclear, while within-team effects varied depending on the strength of team and opposition. Some of these findings will be useful to coaches and performance analysts when planning training sessions and match tactics.  相似文献   

13.
运用文献资料法、录像观察法、逻辑分析法,从传球时间和速度的视角研究足球比赛中“快传球”和“传快球”技术对比赛的影响。认为：“快传球”和“传快球”是创造有利进攻时间和空间的基础,是足球比赛中战术的灵魂,对赢得比赛胜利有重要影响。旨在为我国足球教学训练和比赛提供一定的参考依据。  相似文献   

14.
This study investigated the influence of match phase and field position on collective team behaviour in Australian Rules football (AF). Data from professional male athletes (years 24.4 ± 3.7; cm 185.9 ± 7.1; kg 85.4 ± 7.1), were collected via 10 Hz global positioning system (GPS) during a competitive AFL match. Five spatiotemporal metrics (x-axis centroid, y–axis centroid, length, width, and surface area), occupancy maps, and Shannon Entropy (ShannEn) were analysed by match phase (offensive, defensive, and contested) and field position (defensive 50, defensive midfield, forward midfield, and forward 50). A multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) revealed that field position had a greater influence on the x-axis centroid comparative to match phase. Conversely, match phase had a greater influence on length, width, and surface area comparative to field position. Occupancy maps revealed that players repositioned behind centre when the ball was in their defensive half and moved forward of centre when the ball was in their forward half. Shannon Entropy revealed that player movement was more variable during offence and defence (ShannEn = 0.82–0.93) compared to contest (ShannEn = 0.68–0.79). Spatiotemporal metrics, occupancy maps, and Shannon Entropy may assist in understanding the game style of AF teams.  相似文献   

15.
Representative learning design provides a framework for the extent to which practice simulates key elements of a performance setting. Improving both the measurement and analysis of representative learning design would allow for the refinement of sports training environments that seek to replicate competition conditions and provide additional context to the evaluation of athlete performance. Using rule induction, this study aimed to develop working models for the determination of high frequency, representative events in Australian Rules football kicking. A sample of 9005 kicks from the 2015 Australian Football League season were categorised and analysed according to the following constraints: type of pressure, kick distance, possession source, time in possession, velocity and kick target. The Apriori algorithm was used to develop two models. The first consisted of 10 rules containing the most commonly occurring constraint sets occurring during the kick in AF, with support values ranging from 0.15 to 0.22. None of the rules contained more than three constraints and confidence values ranged from 0.63 to 0.84. The second model considered ineffective and effective kick outcomes and displayed 70% classification accuracy. This research provides a measurement approach to determine the degree of representativeness of sports practice and is directly applicable to various team sports.  相似文献   

16.
This study examined whether skill tests were predictive of status in junior Australian football. Players were recruited from the 2013 under 18 (U18) West Australian Football League competition and classified into two groups: elite (state U18 squad representative; n = 25; 17.9 ± 0.5 years) and subelite (nonstate U18 squad representative; n = 25; 17.3 ± 0.6 years). Both groups completed the Australian football kicking (AFK) and Australian football handballing (AFHB) tests, assessing kicking accuracy/ball speed and handballing accuracy on dominant and nondominant sides. A multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) modelled the main effect of “status”, whilst logistic regression models were built for the predictive analysis using the same test parameters. Between-group differences were noted across all parameters, with the combination of kicking accuracy and ball speed on the dominant and nondominant sides being the best predictor of status for the AFK test (wi = 0.25, AUC = 89.4%) and the combination of accuracy on the dominant and nondominant sides being the best predictor of status for the AFHB test (wi = 0.80, AUC = 88.4%). The AFK and AFHB tests are predictive of status, suggesting that their use is warranted as a means of talent identification in junior Australian football.  相似文献   

17.
Abstract

This paper will offer an economic history perspective on match-fixing based on economic models which explain corruption as a rational decision-making process in which a potentially corrupt athlete weighs up various probabilities. Examples will be taken from sport worldwide including American college sports, NBA basketball, British horseracing, Australian Rules football, and sumo wrestling in Japan where large databases of actual results over time have allowed possible patterns of match-fixing (as opposed to individual instances) to be identified by the use of probability theory.  相似文献   

18.
This study examined the developmental sporting activities of 52 German football first Bundesliga professionals (including 18 senior national team members) and 50 fourth to sixth league amateur players. They reported their volumes of organised football practice/training, including its “microstructure” (proportions of physical conditioning, skill exercises and playing forms), non-organised leisure football play and engagement in other sports through their career, respectively. Analyses revealed that the Bundesliga professionals performed moderate amounts of organised football practice/training throughout their career. They accumulated 4264 (mean value) hours over ~16 years before debuting in 1st Bundesliga; senior National Team debut was preceded by 4532 hours (mean) over ~17 years. Within the “microstructure” of organised practice/training, the proportion of playing forms developed from ~52% (childhood) to ~45% (adolescence) and ~40% (adulthood) and physical conditioning from ~13% to ~14% and ~23%. Outside organised involvement, these players engaged in extensive non-organised leisure football play making ~68%, ~54% and ~9% of all football involvement. Subsuming organised and non-organised football, ~86% (childhood), ~73% (adolescence) and ~43% (adulthood) of all activity was game play (exclusive matchplay). National Team differed from amateurs in more non-organised leisure football in childhood, more engagement in other sports in adolescence, later specialisation, and in more organised football only at age 22+ years. Relative to numerous other studies, these players performed less organised practice, particularly less physical conditioning, but greater proportions of playing activities. The findings are discussed relative to the significance of playing forms and variable involvements and are reflected against the deliberate practice and Developmental Model of Sport Participation (DMSP) frameworks.  相似文献   

19.
Using a two-study approach, we examined a methodology for objectively depicting team performance and form in a professional rugby union side. Study 1 developed standardized indicators to examine a team's performance in a single match relative to their previous matches over a domestic season via a performance report and form chart. This resulted in standardized performance indicators that provided instant and coherent feedback on the team's performance relative to previous standards. Study 2 then utilized this methodology to compare a match between two professional sides, played the following season, to assess the extent to which the performance by one team affected that of the other. Comparison of the two teams' performances, for the match they played against each other, identified a drop in relative performance (against previous standards) for both teams on the same performance indicators. This appeared to be due to the match being a close, hard-fought contest particularly in the tackle and around the gain-line. The findings of the two studies suggest an accurate and viable methodology for depicting team performance that is superior to the global measures previously adopted. Presenting teams' current standardized performances (i.e. form) on a single visual scale also has utility for coaches within an applied setting. Future research should further investigate the effect of one team's performance on another through both individual and team outcomes.  相似文献   

20.
ABSTRACT

This study investigated the association between talent selection criteria, draft order and match performance in professional Australian Football players. Physical performance results from the Australian Football League (AFL) National Draft combine and non-performance based talent selection criteria were collated for all players drafted in the National Draft with selections 1–80 between 2003 and 2008 (n = 318). Match performance was assessed via the AFL Player Ranking metric that was provided by a commercial statistical provider (Champion Data Pty Ltd). A combination of stepwise multiple regression and linear mixed model analyses examined the influence of National Draft combine physical performance assessments and non-performance based talent selection criteria on draft order and future match performance. Earlier draft selection was associated with Under-18 all Australian team selection, height, Under-18 National Championship participation and indigenous status. The 20 m sprint and state of origin were associated with later draft selection. Under-18 all Australian team selection increased both Player Ranking/game and total Player Ranking. Under-18 all Australian team selection displays efficacy for selecting players with the potential for success.  相似文献   

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