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1.
The advent of formal definitions of the simplicity of a theoryhas important implications for model selection. But what isthe best way to define simplicity? Forster and Sober ([1994])advocate the use of Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC), anon-Bayesian formalisation of the notion of simplicity. Thisforms an important part of their wider attack on Bayesianismin the philosophy of science. We defend a Bayesian alternative:the simplicity of a theory is to be characterised in terms ofWallace's Minimum Message Length (MML). We show that AIC isinadequate for many statistical problems where MML performswell. Whereas MML is always defined, AIC can be undefined. WhereasMML is not known ever to be statistically inconsistent, AICcan be. Even when defined and consistent, AIC performs worsethan MML on small sample sizes. MML is statistically invariantunder 1-to-1 re-parametrisation, thus avoiding a common criticismof Bayesian approaches. We also show that MML provides answersto many of Forster's objections to Bayesianism. Hence an importantpart of the attack on Bayesianism fails.
  1. Introduction
  2. TheCurve Fitting Problem
    2.1 Curves and families of curves
    2.2 Noise
    2.3 Themethod of Maximum Likelihood
    2.4 ML and over-fitting
  3. Akaike's Information Criterion(AIC)
  4. The Predictive Accuracy Framework
  5. The Minimum MessageLength (MML) Principle
    5.1 The Strict MML estimator
    5.2 Anexample: Thebinomial distribution
    5.3 Properties ofthe SMML estimator
    5.3.1  Bayesianism
    5.3.2  Languageinvariance
    5.3.3Generality
    5.3.4  Consistencyand efficiency
    5.4 Similarity to false oracles
    5.5 Approximationsto SMML
  6. Criticisms of AIC
    6.1 Problems with ML
    6.1.1  Smallsample biasin a Gaussian distribution
    6.1.2  Thevon Misescircular and von Mises—Fisherspherical distributions
    6.1.3  The Neyman–Scottproblem
    6.1.4  Neyman–Scott,predictive accuracyandminimum expected KL distance
    6.2 Otherproblems with AIC
    6.2.1  Univariate polynomial regression
    6.2.2  Autoregressiveeconometric time series
    6.2.3  Multivariatesecond-orderpolynomial modelselection
    6.2.4  Gapor no gap:a clustering-like problem forAIC
    6.3 Conclusionsfrom the comparison of MML and AIC
  7. Meeting Forster's objectionsto Bayesianism
    7.1 The sub-family problem
    7.2 Theproblem of approximation,or, which framework forstatistics?
  8. Conclusion
  1. Details of the derivation of the Strict MMLestimator
  2. MML, AIC and the Gap vs. No Gap Problem
    B.1 Expectedsize of the largest gap
    B.2 Performanceof AIC on thegap vs. no gap problem
    B.3 Performanceof MML in thegap vs. no gap problem
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2.
I argue in this article that there is a mistake in Searle'sChinese room argument that has not received sufficient attention.The mistake stems from Searle's use of the Church–Turingthesis. Searle assumes that the Church–Turing thesis licencesthe assumption that the Chinese room can run any program. Iargue that it does not, and that this assumption is false. Anumber of possible objections are considered and rejected. Myconclusion is that it is consistent with Searle's argument tohold onto the claim that understanding consists in the runningof a program.
1 Searle's Argument
1.1 The Church–Turingthesis
2 Criticism of Searle's Argument
3 Objectionsand Replies
3.1 The virtual brain machine objection
3.2The brain-basedobjection
3.3 The syntax/physics objection
3.4 The abstractionobjection
3.5 The ‘same conclusion’objection
3.6 The ‘unnecessary baggage’ objection
3.7The Chinese gym objection
3.8 The syntax/semantics objection
3.9 Turing's definition of algorithm
3.9.1 Consequences
3.9.2 Criticism of the defence
4 Conclusion
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3.
Your evidence constrains your rational degrees of confidenceboth locally and globally. On the one hand, particular bitsof evidence can boost or diminish your rational degree of confidencein various hypotheses, relative to your background information.On the other hand, epistemic rationality requires that, forany hypothesis h, your confidence in h is proportional to thesupport that h receives from your total evidence. Why is itthat your evidence has these two epistemic powers? I argue thatvarious proposed accounts of what it is for something to bean element of your evidence set cannot answer this question.I then propose an alternative account of what it is for somethingto be an element of your evidence set.
1 Introduction
2 Theelements of one's evidence set are propositions
3 Which kindsof propositions are in one's evidence set?
3.1 Doxastic accountsof evidence
3.2 Non-doxastic accountsof evidence
4 Elaboratingand defending the LIE
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4.
While there is no universal logic of induction, the probabilitycalculus succeeds as a logic of induction in many contexts throughits use of several notions concerning inductive inference. Theyinclude Addition, through which low probabilities representdisbelief as opposed to ignorance; and Bayes property, whichcommits the calculus to a ‘refute and rescale’ dynamicsfor incorporating new evidence. These notions are independentand it is urged that they be employed selectively accordingto needs of the problem at hand. It is shown that neither isadapted to inductive inference concerning some indeterministicsystems.
1 Introduction
2 Failure of demonstrations of universality
2.1 Working backwards
2.2 The surface logic
3 Framework
3.1 The properties
3.2 Boundaries
3.2.1 Universalcomparability
3.2.2 Transitivity
3.2.3 Monotonicity
4 Addition
4.1 The property: disbelief versus ignorance
4.2Boundaries
5 Bayes property
5.1 The property
5.2 Bayes' theorem
5.3Boundaries
5.3.1 Dogmatism of the priors
5.3.2 Impossibilityof prior ignorance
5.3.3 Accommodation of virtues
6Real values
7 Sufficiency and independence
8 Illustrations
8.1 All properties retained
8.2 Bayes propertyonly retained
8.3 Induction without additivity and Bayes property
9Conclusion
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5.
Can there be deterministic chance? That is, can there be objectivechance values other than 0 or 1, in a deterministic world? Iwill argue that the answer is no. In a deterministic world,the only function that can play the role of chance is one thatoutputs just 0s and 1s. The role of chance involves connectionsfrom chance to credence, possibility, time, intrinsicness, lawhood,and causation. These connections do not allow for deterministicchance.
1 Overview
2 Four Arguments for Deterministic Chance
3 Four Conceptions of Deterministic Chance
4 The Role ofChance
5 The Case against Posterior Deterministic Chance
6The Case against Initial Deterministic Chance
7 EpistemicChance
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6.
Stochastic Einstein Locality Revisited   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
I discuss various formulations of stochastic Einstein locality(SEL), which is a version of the idea of relativistic causality,that is, the idea that influences propagate at most as fastas light. SEL is similar to Reichenbach's Principle of the CommonCause (PCC), and Bell's Local Causality. My main aim is to discuss formulations of SEL for a fixed backgroundspacetime. I previously argued that SEL is violated by the outcomedependence shown by Bell correlations, both in quantum mechanicsand in quantum field theory. Here I reassess those verdictsin the light of some recent literature which argues that outcomedependence does not violate the PCC. I argue that the verdictsabout SEL still stand. Finally, I briefly discuss how to formulate relativistic causalityif there is no fixed background spacetime.
1 Introduction
2Formulating Stochastic Einstein Locality
2.1 Events and regions
2.2 The idea of SEL
2.3 Three formulations of SEL
2.3.1The formulations
2.3.2Comparisons
2.4 Implications betweenthe formulations
2.4.1 Conditions forthe equivalence of SELD1and SELD2
2.4.2 Conditions for theequivalence of SELS andSELD2
3 Relativistic Causality in the Bell Experiment
3.1 The background
3.1.1 The Bell experiment reviewed
3.1.2My previous position
3.2 A common common cause? The Budapestschool
3.2.1 Resuscitatingthe PCC
3.2.2 Known proofs of aBell inequality need a strongPCC
3.2.3 Two distinctions
3.2.4Szabó's model
3.2.5A common common cause is plausible
3.2.6 Bell inequalitiesfrom a weak PCC: the Bern school
3.3 SEL in the Bell experiment
3.3.1 PCC and SEL are connectedby PPSI
3.3.2 The need forother judgments
3.3.3 Weak vs.strong SELD
4 SEL in Algebraic Quantum Field Theory
4.1 The story so far
4.2 Questions
4.2.1 Our formulations
4.2.2 The BudapestandBern schools
5 SEL in DynamicalSpacetimes
5.1 SEL for metric structure?
5.2 SEL for causalsets?
5.2.1 The causal set approach
5.2.2Labelled causalsets; general covariance
5.2.3 Deducing thedynamics
5.2.4The fate of SEL
  相似文献   

7.
Le Poidevin on the Reduction of Chemistry   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
In this article we critically evaluate Robin Le Poidevin's recentattempt to set out an argument for the ontological reductionof chemistry independently of intertheoretic reduction. We argue,firstly, that the argument he envisages applies only to a smallpart of chemistry, and that there is no obvious way to extendit. We argue, secondly, that the argument cannot establish thereduction of chemistry, properly so called.
1 Introduction
2The scope of the reductionist claim
3 The combinatorial argument
4 The strength of the ‘reduction’
5 Concludingremarks
  相似文献   

8.
There is a recurring line of argument in the literature to theeffect that Bohm's theory fails to solve the measurement problem.I show that this argument fails in all its variants. Hence Bohm'stheory, whatever its drawbacks, at least succeeds in solvingthe measurement problem. I briefly discuss a similar argumentthat has been raised against the GRW theory.
1 Introduction
2 Three Theories
3 The Basic Argument
4 Branches and Worlds
5 Theory and Interpretation
6 Size Matters
7 Conclusion
  相似文献   

9.
Many standard philosophical accounts of scientific practicefail to distinguish between modeling and other types of theoryconstruction. This failure is unfortunate because there areimportant contrasts among the goals, procedures, and representationsemployed by modelers and other kinds of theorists. We can seesome of these differences intuitively when we reflect on themethods of theorists such as Vito Volterra and Linus Paulingon the one hand, and Charles Darwin and Dimitri Mendeleev onthe other. Much of Volterra's and Pauling's work involved modeling;much of Darwin's and Mendeleev's did not. In order to capturethis distinction, I consider two examples of theory constructionin detail: Volterra's treatment of post-WWI fishery dynamicsand Mendeleev's construction of the periodic system. I arguethat modeling can be distinguished from other forms of theorizingby the procedures modelers use to represent and to study real-worldphenomena: indirect representation and analysis. This differentiationbetween modelers and non-modelers is one component of the largerproject of understanding the practice of modeling, its distinctivefeatures, and the strategies of abstraction and idealizationit employs.
1 Introduction
2 The essential contrast
2.1 Modeling
2.2 Abstract directrepresentation
3 Scientific models
4 Distinguishing modeling from ADR
4.1 The first and secondstages of modeling
4.2 Third stage of modeling
4.3 ADR
5 Who is not a modeler?
6 Conclusion: who is a modeler?
  相似文献   

10.
In this paper I argue—against van Fraassen's constructiveempiricism—that the practice of saving phenomena is muchbroader than usually thought, and includes unobservable phenomenaas well as observable ones. My argument turns on the distinctionbetween data and phenomena: I discuss how unobservable phenomenamanifest themselves in data models and how theoretical modelsable to save them are chosen. I present a paradigmatic casestudy taken from the history of particle physics to illustratemy argument. The first aim of this paper is to draw attentionto the experimental practice of saving unobservable phenomena,which philosophers have overlooked for too long. The secondaim is to explore some far-reaching implications this practicemay have for the debate on scientific realism and constructiveempiricism.
1 Introduction
2 Unobservable Phenomena
2.1 Dataand phenomena
2.2 What isa data model?
2.3 Data modelsand unobservable phenomena
3 Saving Unobservable Phenomena:An Exemplar
4 The October Revolution of 1974: From the J/to Charmonium
4.1 A new unobservable phenomenon at 3.1 Ge V
4.2 How thecharmonium model saved the new unobservable phenomenon
4.2.1The J/ as a baryon–antibaryon bound state
4.2.2TheJ/ as the spin-1 meson of a model with three charmedquarks
4.2.3 The J/ as a charmonium state
5 Concluding Remarks
  相似文献   

11.
The paper considers our ordinary mentalistic discourse in relationto what we should expect from any genuine science of the mind.A meta-scientific eliminativism is commended and distinguishedfrom the more familiar eliminativism of Skinner and the Churchlands.Meta-scientific eliminativism views folk psychology qua folksyas unsuited to offer insight into the structure of cognition,although it might otherwise be indispensable for our socialcommerce and self-understanding. This position flows from ageneral thesis that scientific advance is marked by an eschewalof folk understanding. The latter half of the paper argues that,contrary to the received view, Chomsky's review of Skinner offersnot just an argument against Skinner's eliminativism, but, morecentrally, one in favour of the second eliminativism.
1 Introduction
2 Preliminaries: What Meta-scientific Eliminativism is Not
3 Meta-scientific Eliminativism
3.1 Folk psychology and cognitivescience
4 Two Readings of Chomsky's Review of Skinner
5Issues of Interpretation
5.1 A grammar as a theory
5.2 Cartesianlinguistics
5.3 Common cause
6 Chomsky's Current View
  相似文献   

12.
Many have found attractive views according to which the veracityof specific causal judgements is underwritten by general causallaws. This paper describes various variants of that view andexplores complications that appear when one looks at a certainsimple type of example from physics. To capture certain causaldependencies, physics is driven to look at equations which,I argue, are not causal laws. One place where physics is forcedto look at such equations (and not the only place) is in itshandling of Green's functions which reveal point-wise causaldependencies. Thus, I claim that there is no simple relationshipbetween causal dependence and causal laws of the sort oftenpictured. Rather, this paper explores the complexity of therelationship in a certain well-understood case.
1 Introduction
2 The Causal Covering-Law Thesis
3 The Laws of String Motion
4 Green's Functions and Causation
5 Green's Functions andBoundary Conditions
6 The Green's Function as a Violationof the Wave Equation
6.1The Green's Function and other Sensesof ‘Causal Law’:Temporal Propagation and LocalPropagation
7 The Distributional Wave Equation
8 Whyis not the Green's Function a ‘Causal Law’?
9Conclusion
  相似文献   

13.
James Ladyman ([2000]) argues that constructive empiricism isuntenable because it cannot adequately account for modal statementsabout observability. In this paper, I attempt to resist Ladyman'sconclusion, arguing that the constructive empiricist can granthis modal discourse objective, theory-independent truth-conditions,yet without compromising his empiricism.
1 Ladyman's dilemma
2 Constructive empiricism and modal agnosticism
3 Conclusion
  相似文献   

14.
The evidence from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) is widelyregarded as supplying the ‘gold standard’ in medicine—wemay sometimes have to settle for other forms of evidence, butthis is always epistemically second-best. But how well justifiedis the epistemic claim about the superiority of RCTs? This paperadds to my earlier (predominantly negative) analyses of theclaims produced in favour of the idea that randomization playsa uniquely privileged epistemic role, by closely inspectingthree related arguments from leading contributors to the burgeoningfield of probabilistic causality—Papineau, Cartwrightand Pearl. It concludes that none of these further argumentssupplies any practical reason for thinking of randomizationas having unique epistemic power.
1 Introduction
2 Why theissue is of great practical importance—the ECMOcase
3Papineau on the ‘virtues of randomization’
4 Cartwrighton causality and the ‘ideal’ randomizedexperiment
5 Pearl on randomization, nets and causes
6 Conclusion
  相似文献   

15.
In a recent issue of this journal, P.E. Vermaas ([2005]) claimsto have demonstrated that standard quantum mechanics is technologicallyinadequate in that it violates the ‘technical functionscondition’. We argue that this claim is false becausebased on a ‘narrow’ interpretation of this technicalfunctions condition that Vermaas can only accept on pain ofcontradiction. We also argue that if, in order to avoid thiscontradiction, the technical functions condition is interpreted‘widely’ rather than ‘narrowly’, thenVermaas, argument for his claim collapses. The conclusion isthat Vermaas' claim that standard quantum mechanics is technologicallyinadequate evaporates.
1 Introduction
2 The Narrow Interpretation
3 The Wide Interpretation
4 The Teleportation Scheme
5Conclusions
  相似文献   

16.
What belongs to quantum theory is no more than what is neededfor its derivation. Keeping to this maxim, we record a paradigmaticshift in the foundations of quantum mechanics, where the focushas recently moved from interpreting to reconstructing quantumtheory. Several historic and contemporary reconstructions areanalyzed, including the work of Hardy, Rovelli, and Clifton,Bub and Halvorson. We conclude by discussing the importanceof a novel concept of intentionally incomplete reconstruction.
1 What is Wrong with Interpreting Quantum Mechanics
2 Reconstructionof Physical Theory
2.1 Schema
2.2 Selectionof the first principles
2.3 Status of the first principles
3 Examples of Reconstruction
3.1 Early examples of reconstruction
3.2 Hardy's reconstruction
3.3 Rovelli's reconstruction
3.4 The CBH reconstruction
3.5 Intentionally incompletereconstructions
4 Conclusion
  相似文献   

17.
Sklar's Maneuver     
Sklar ([1974]) claimed that relationalism about ontology—thedoctrine that space and time do not exist—is compatiblewith Newtonian mechanics. To defend this claim he sketched arelationalist interpretation of Newtonian mechanics. In hisinterpretation, absolute acceleration is a fundamental, intrinsicproperty of material bodies; that a body undergoes absoluteacceleration does not entail that space and time exist. ButSklar left his proposal as just a sketch; his defense of relationalismsucceeds only if the sketch can be filled in. I argue that thiscannot be done. There can be no (relationalist) dynamical lawsof motion based on Sklar's proposal that capture the contentof Newton's theory. So relationalists must look elsewhere fora relationalist interpretation of Newtonian mechanics.
1 Introduction
2 The Relationalist Initial Value Problem
3 Sklar's Maneuver
4 Sklar's Initial Value Problem is not Well-posed
5 ConcludingRemarks
  相似文献   

18.
1 Introduction
2 Causality in 19th and Early 20th CenturyMedicine
3 A Lakatosian Approach to the History of Medicine
  相似文献   

19.
1 Summaries
2 Reflections
  相似文献   

20.
Questions about the function(s) of consciousness have long beencentral to discussions of consciousness in philosophy and psychology.Intuitively, consciousness has an important role to play inthe control of many everyday behaviors. However, this view hasrecently come under attack. In particular, it is becoming increasinglycommon for scientists and philosophers to argue that a significantbody of data emerging from cognitive science shows that consciousstates are not involved in the control of behavior. Accordingto these theorists, nonconscious states control most everydaybehaviors. Andy Clark ([2001]) does an admirable job of summarizingand defending the most important data thought to support thisview. In this paper, I argue that the evidence available doesnot in fact threaten the view that conscious states play animportant and intimate role in the control of much everydaybehavior. I thereby defend a philosophically intuitive viewabout the functions of conscious states in action.
1 Introduction
2 Clarifying EBC
2.1 Control and guidance
2.2 Fine-tunedactivity
3 The empirical case against EBC
4 Conclusion
  相似文献   

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