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1.
The number of clinical citations received from clinical guidelines or clinical trials has been considered as one of the most appropriate indicators for quantifying the clinical impact of biomedical papers. Therefore, the early prediction of clinical citation count of biomedical papers is critical to scientific activities in biomedicine, such as research evaluation, resource allocation, and clinical translation. In this study, we designed a four-layer multilayer perceptron neural network (MPNN) model to predict the clinical citation count of biomedical papers in the future by using 9,822,620 biomedical papers published from 1985 to 2005. We extracted ninety-one paper features from three dimensions as the input of the model, including twenty-one features in the paper dimension, thirty-five in the reference dimension, and thirty-five in the citing paper dimension. In each dimension, the features can be classified into three categories, i.e., the citation-related features, the clinical translation-related features, and the topic-related features. Besides, in the paper dimension, we also considered the features that have previously been demonstrated to be related to the citation counts of research papers. The results showed that the proposed MPNN model outperformed the other five baseline models, and the features in the reference dimension were the most important. In all the three dimensions, the citation-related and topic-related features were more important than the clinical translation-related features for the prediction. It also turned out that the features helpful in predicting the citation count of papers are not important for predicting the clinical citation count of biomedical papers. Furthermore, we explored the MPNN model based on different categories of biomedical papers. The results showed that the clinical translation-related features were more important for the prediction of clinical citation count of basic papers rather than those papers closer to clinical science. This study provided a novel dimension (i.e., the reference dimension) for the research community and could be applied to other related research tasks, such as the research assessment for translational programs. In addition, the findings in this study could be useful for biomedical authors (especially for those in basic science) to get more attention from clinical research.  相似文献   

2.
Understanding paper citation dynamics and accurately predicting future citation counts of papers is of significant interest, and thus modeling citation dynamics as an information cascade has recently attracted considerable attention. Nevertheless, most of these recent deep learning-based information cascade prediction models are focused on the embedding of each individual node rather than the entire structure of the cascade graph, which limits the robustness of the model. Thus, instead of learning the representation of each node in the cascade, we propose learning the dynamic structural representation of the entire information cascade graph with the degree distribution vectors corresponding to different timestamps as the input of a sequential deep neural network, named CasDENN. Extensive experiments on datasets from academic paper citations (APS) and social media post forwards (Weibo) show a dramatic improvement over state-of-the-art baselines, where the prediction error can be reduced by approximately 8%–10% and the running time is less than 10% of the fast baseline.  相似文献   

3.
Predicting the citation counts of academic papers is of considerable significance to scientific evaluation. This study used a four-layer Back Propagation (BP) neural network model to predict the five-year citations of 49,834 papers in the library, information and documentation field indexed by the CSSCI database and published from 2000 to 2013. We extracted six paper features, two journal features, nine author features, eight reference features, and five early citation features to make the prediction. The empirical experiments showed that the performance of the BP neural network is significantly better than those of the six baseline models. In terms of the prediction effect, the accuracy of the model at predicting infrequently cited papers was higher than that for frequently cited ones. We determined that five essential features have significant effects on the prediction performance of the model, i.e., ‘citations in the first two years’, ‘first-cited age’, ‘paper length’, ‘month of publication’, and ‘self-citations of journals’, and the other features contribute only slightly to the prediction.  相似文献   

4.
《Journal of Informetrics》2019,13(2):485-499
With the growing number of published scientific papers world-wide, the need to evaluation and quality assessment methods for research papers is increasing. Scientific fields such as scientometrics, informetrics, and bibliometrics establish quantified analysis methods and measurements for evaluating scientific papers. In this area, an important problem is to predict the future influence of a published paper. Particularly, early discrimination between influential papers and insignificant papers may find important applications. In this regard, one of the most important metrics is the number of citations to the paper, since this metric is widely utilized in the evaluation of scientific publications and moreover, it serves as the basis for many other metrics such as h-index. In this paper, we propose a novel method for predicting long-term citations of a paper based on the number of its citations in the first few years after publication. In order to train a citation count prediction model, we employed artificial neural network which is a powerful machine learning tool with recently growing applications in many domains including image and text processing. The empirical experiments show that our proposed method outperforms state-of-the-art methods with respect to the prediction accuracy in both yearly and total prediction of the number of citations.  相似文献   

5.
[目的/意义] 文章的被引频次一直是量化评价一篇论文学术影响力的重要指标。但在不同学科不同年份发表的论文会因该领域研究论文数、引用滞后等因素呈现较大的差异。因此在对比两篇论文时，难以简单依据被引频次的绝对值来评判论文影响力大小。为此，本文设计了一个新的可计算数学模型，使得每篇论文可以有一个标准化的指标，以便对不同学科不同年份发表的论文的学术影响力进行直接比较。[方法/过程] 通过分析2006、2017两年中国科技类学术期刊各学科论文的被引频次分布规律，采用同学科论文被引频次的分布形态最接近对数正态分布的先设条件，提出一种被引频次标准化指数——Paper Citation Standardized Index （简称PCSI，中文"论文引证标准化指数"）。最后以中国科协优秀科技期刊论文评选结果为例，将它们与论文所属学科全部论文进行实证对比研究。[结果/结论] 结果证明，PCSI对不同年份、不同学科论文的被引频次进行了标准化，反映了被引频次的线性差距，是一种较为理想的单篇论文学术影响力比较评价工具。  相似文献   

6.
[目的/意义] 文章的被引频次一直是量化评价一篇论文学术影响力的重要指标。但在不同学科不同年份发表的论文会因该领域研究论文数、引用滞后等因素呈现较大的差异。因此在对比两篇论文时，难以简单依据被引频次的绝对值来评判论文影响力大小。为此，本文设计了一个新的可计算数学模型，使得每篇论文可以有一个标准化的指标，以便对不同学科不同年份发表的论文的学术影响力进行直接比较。[方法/过程] 通过分析2006、2017两年中国科技类学术期刊各学科论文的被引频次分布规律，采用同学科论文被引频次的分布形态最接近对数正态分布的先设条件，提出一种被引频次标准化指数——Paper Citation Standardized Index （简称PCSI，中文"论文引证标准化指数"）。最后以中国科协优秀科技期刊论文评选结果为例，将它们与论文所属学科全部论文进行实证对比研究。[结果/结论] 结果证明，PCSI对不同年份、不同学科论文的被引频次进行了标准化，反映了被引频次的线性差距，是一种较为理想的单篇论文学术影响力比较评价工具。  相似文献   

7.
Inspired by “sleeping beauties in science”, we proposed that the awakening effect in knowledge diffusion is ubiquitous, whereas the “prince” paper has the strongest effect. To test this hypothesis, a three-layer super-network model depicting the knowledge diffusion trajectory is designed and the diffusion path of the awakening effect (defined on the basis of influential strength) is simulated. In detail, the model is built based on the citation network and collaboration network of 63785 publications in the library and information science domain. Through meta-paths in this super-network, the influential strength of a paper and the awakening effect from neighboring papers can be quantified into 36 numerical features. By testing the effectiveness of these features in citation counts prediction, we try to prove our hypothesis. Thus an effective predictor in machine learning is trained upon these features. Using this predictor, we showed that most neighboring papers in the super-network had effects on future citation counts. The effectiveness of these features is again demonstrated through experiments on papers with different publication years. We also did a case study on papers that were significantly affected by the awakening effect, and found that the model proposed in this paper can also be used to explain some common phenomena in knowledge diffusion. All results show that the awakening effect could be not only ubiquitous but also quantifiable.  相似文献   

8.
Identifying the future influential papers among the newly published ones is an important yet challenging issue in bibliometrics. As newly published papers have no or limited citation history, linear extrapolation of their citation counts—which is motivated by the well-known preferential attachment mechanism—is not applicable. We translate the recently introduced notion of discoverers to the citation network setting, and show that there are authors who frequently cite recent papers that become highly-cited in the future; these authors are referred to as discoverers. We develop a method for early identification of highly-cited papers based on the early citations from discoverers. The results show that the identified discoverers have a consistent citing pattern over time, and the early citations from them can be used as a valuable indicator to predict the future citation counts of a paper. The discoverers themselves are potential future outstanding researchers as they receive more citations than average.  相似文献   

9.
This paper explores a possible approach to a research evaluation, by calculating the renown of authors of scientific papers. The evaluation is based on the citation analysis and its results should be close to a human viewpoint. The PageRank algorithm and its modifications were used for the evaluation of various types of citation networks. Our main research question was whether better evaluation results were based directly on an author network or on a publication network. Other issues concerned, for example, the determination of weights in the author network and the distribution of publication scores among their authors. The citation networks were extracted from the computer science domain in the ISI Web of Science database. The influence of self-citations was also explored. To find the best network for a research evaluation, the outputs of PageRank were compared with lists of prestigious awards in computer science such as the Turing and Codd award, ISI Highly Cited and ACM Fellows. Our experiments proved that the best ranking of authors was obtained by using a publication citation network from which self-citations were eliminated, and by distributing the same proportional parts of the publications’ values to their authors. The ranking can be used as a criterion for the financial support of research teams, for identifying leaders of such teams, etc.  相似文献   

10.
本文创新性构建学术论文被引影响因素特征空间,以我校SCI&SSCI学术论文为例,验证机器学习模型在预测学术论文被引频次研究中的有效性和准确性,本文的分析结论可以为高校图书馆开展决策支持服务提供参考。本文梳理学术论文被引频次影响因素及预测方法的相关研究,结合传统文献计量和Altmetrics指标构建学术论文影响因素的特征空间,并通过实验比较线性回归、神经网络、支持向量机三种机器学习模型在预测学术论文被引频次研究中的有效性和准确性。本文的分析结论证明基于Altmetrics视角构建的特征空间的预测准确率大幅度提高,并且支持向量机模型在对学术论文影响力预测的实证研究中表现出优异的性能。  相似文献   

11.
Citation behaviour is the source driver of scientific dynamics, and it is essential to understand its effect on knowledge diffusion and intellectual structure. This study explores the effect of citation behaviour on disciplinary knowledge diffusion and intellectual structure by comparing three types of citation behaviour trends, namely the high citation trend, medium citation trend, and low citation trend. The diffusion power, diffusion speed, and diffusion breadth were calculated to quantify knowledge diffusion. The properties of the global and local citation network structure were used to reflect the particular influences of citation behaviour on the scientific intellectual structure. The primary empirical results show that (a) the high citation behaviour trend could improve the knowledge diffusion speed for papers with a short citation history span. Additionally, the medium citation trend has the broadest diffusion breadth whereas the low citation behaviour trend might make the citation counts take off for papers with a long citation history span; (b) the high citation trend has a stronger influence and greater control over the intellectual structure, but this relationship is true only for papers with a short or normal citation history span. These findings could play important roles in scientific research evaluation and impact prediction.  相似文献   

12.
Researchers have investigated factors thought to affect the total number of citations in various academic disciplines, and some general trends have emerged. However, there are still limited data for many fields, including aquatic sciences. Using papers published in 2003–2005 (n = 785), we investigated marine and freshwater biology articles to identify factors that may contribute to the probability of citation and for cumulative citation counts over 10 years. We found no relationships with probability of citation; however, we found evidence that for those that were cited at least once, cumulative citations were related to several factors. Articles cited by books received more citations than those never cited by books, which we hypothesized to be indicative of the impact an article may have in the field. We also found that articles first cited within 2 years of publication received more cumulative citations than those first cited after 2 years. We found no evidence that self‐citation (as the first citation) had a significant effect on total citations. Our findings were compared with previous studies in other disciplines, and it was found that aquatic science citation patterns are comparable to fields in science and technology but less so to humanities and social sciences.  相似文献   

13.
In an age of intensifying scientific collaboration, the counting of papers by multiple authors has become an important methodological issue in scientometric based research evaluation. Especially, how counting methods influence institutional level research evaluation has not been studied in existing literatures. In this study, we selected the top 300 universities in physics in the 2011 HEEACT Ranking as our study subjects. We compared the university rankings generated from four different counting methods (i.e. whole counting, straight counting using first author, straight counting using corresponding author, and fractional counting) to show how paper counts and citation counts and the subsequent university ranks were affected by counting method selection. The counting was based on the 1988–2008 physics papers records indexed in ISI WoS. We also observed how paper and citation counts were inflated by whole counting. The results show that counting methods affected the universities in the middle range more than those in the upper or lower ranges. Citation counts were also more affected than paper counts. The correlation between the rankings generated from whole counting and those from the other methods were low or negative in the middle ranges. Based on the findings, this study concluded that straight counting and fractional counting were better choices for paper count and citation count in the institutional level research evaluation.  相似文献   

14.
The normalized citation indicator may not be sufficiently reliable when a short citation time window is used, because the citation counts for recently published papers are not as reliable as those for papers published many years ago. In a limited time period, recent publications usually have insufficient time to accumulate citations and the citation counts of these publications are not sufficiently reliable to be used in the citation impact indicators. However, normalization methods themselves cannot solve this problem. To solve this problem, we introduce a weighting factor to the commonly used normalization indicator Category Normalized Citation Impact (CNCI) at the paper level. The weighting factor, which is calculated as the correlation coefficient between citation counts of papers in the given short citation window and those in the fixed long citation window, reflects the degree of reliability of the CNCI value of one paper. To verify the effect of the proposed weighted CNCI indicator, we compared the CNCI score and CNCI ranking of 500 universities before and after introducing the weighting factor. The results showed that although there was a strong positive correlation before and after the introduction of the weighting factor, some universities’ performance and rankings changed dramatically.  相似文献   

15.
Main path analysis is a popular method for extracting the backbone of scientific evolution from a (paper) citation network. The first and core step of main path analysis, called search path counting, is to weight citation arcs by the number of scientific influence paths from old to new papers. Search path counting shows high potential in scientific impact evaluation due to its semantic similarity to the meaning of scientific impact indicator, i.e. how many papers are influenced to what extent. In addition, the algorithmic idea of search path counting also resembles many known indirect citation impact indicators. Inspired by the above observations, this paper presents the FSPC (Forward Search Path Count) framework as an alternative scientific impact indicator based on indirect citations. Two critical assumptions are made to ensure the effectiveness of FSPC. First, knowledge decay is introduced to weight scientific influence paths in decreasing order of length. Second, path capping is introduced to mimic human literature search and citing behavior. By experiments on two well-studied datasets against two carefully created gold standard sets of papers, we have demonstrated that FSPC is able to achieve surprisingly good performance in not only recognizing high-impact papers but also identifying undercited papers.  相似文献   

16.
In citation network analysis, complex behavior is reduced to a simple edge, namely, node A cites node B. The implicit assumption is that A is giving credit to, or acknowledging, B. It is also the case that the contributions of all citations are treated equally, even though some citations appear multiply in a text and others appear only once. In this study, we apply text-mining algorithms to a relatively large dataset (866 information science articles containing 32,496 bibliographic references) to demonstrate the differential contributions made by references. We (1) look at the placement of citations across the different sections of a journal article, and (2) identify highly cited works using two different counting methods (CountOne and CountX). We find that (1) the most highly cited works appear in the Introduction and Literature Review sections of citing papers, and (2) the citation rankings produced by CountOne and CountX differ. That is to say, counting the number of times a bibliographic reference is cited in a paper rather than treating all references the same no matter how many times they are invoked in the citing article reveals the differential contributions made by the cited works to the citing paper.  相似文献   

17.
Prediction of the future performance of academic journals is a task that can benefit a variety of stakeholders including editorial staff, publishers, indexing services, researchers, university administrators and granting agencies. Using historical data on journal performance, this can be framed as a machine learning regression problem. In this work, we study two such regression tasks: 1) prediction of the number of citations a journal will receive during the next calendar year, and 2) prediction of the Elsevier CiteScore a journal will be assigned for the next calendar year. To address these tasks, we first create a dataset of historical bibliometric data for journals indexed in Scopus. We propose the use of neural network models trained on our dataset to predict the future performance of journals. To this end, we perform feature selection and model configuration for a Multi-Layer Perceptron and a Long Short-Term Memory. Through experimental comparisons to heuristic prediction baselines and classical machine learning models, we demonstrate superior performance in our proposed models for the prediction of future citation and CiteScore values.  相似文献   

18.
Scholarly citations – widely seen as tangible measures of the impact and significance of academic papers – guide critical decisions by research administrators and policy makers. The citation distributions form characteristic patterns that can be revealed by big-data analysis. However, the citation dynamics varies significantly among subject areas, countries etc. The problem is how to quantify those differences, separate global and local citation characteristics. Here, we carry out an extensive analysis of the power-law relationship between the total citation count and the h-index to detect a functional dependence among its parameters for different science domains. The results demonstrate that the statistical structure of the citation indicators admits representation by a global scale and a set of local exponents. The scale parameters are evaluated for different research actors – individual researchers and entire countries – employing subject- and affiliation-based divisions of science into domains. The results can inform research assessment and classification into subject areas; the proposed divide-and-conquer approach can be applied to hidden scales in other power-law systems.  相似文献   

19.
[目的/意义]探索中文学术期刊论文的引文模式及时间窗口的选择对引文模式的影响，建立引文模式的分析框架。[方法/过程]以2006-2008年出版的图书情报领域期刊论文作为研究对象，采用两步聚类法对单篇论文在7年内的绝对被引量与相对被引量进行聚类分析，研究论文主要特征因子与引文模式的相关性。[结果/结论]在绝对被引量视角下，期刊论文均表现为先上升后下降的经典引文模式；在相对下载量视角下，期刊论文共有6种引文模式，其中3种可以归纳为经典引文模式，另外3种分别为"类睡美人型"、正偏型和马拉松型。相对被引量视角下，首年被引量与总被引量呈现了中等甚至较强的相关性，并且平均被引量越高，相关性越强，绝对被引量视角下的结果正好相反。结果表明，期刊论文的初始被引量与总被引量的相关性高低主要取决于引文曲线的峰度而非总被引量的大小。  相似文献   

20.
Biomedical research encompasses diverse types of activities, from basic science (“bench”) to clinical medicine (“bedside”) to bench-to-bedside translational research. It, however, remains unclear whether different types of research receive citations at varying rates. Here we aim to answer this question by using a newly proposed paper-level indicator that quantifies the extent to which a paper is basic science or clinical medicine. Applying this measure to 5 million biomedical papers, we find a systematic citation disadvantage of clinical oriented papers; they tend to garner far fewer citations and are less likely to be hit works than papers oriented towards basic science. At the same time, clinical research has a higher variance in its citation. We also find that the citation difference between basic and clinical research decreases, yet still persists, if longer citation-window is used. Given the increasing adoption of short-term, citation-based bibliometric indicators in funding decisions, the under-cited effect of clinical research may provide disincentives for bio-researchers to venture into the translation of basic scientific discoveries into clinical applications, thus providing explanations of reasons behind the existence of the gap between basic and clinical research that is commented as “valley of death” and the commentary of “extinction” risk of translational researchers. Our work may provide insights to policy-makers on how to evaluate different types of biomedical research.  相似文献   

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