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41.
Martin Weiss Alexandra Newman Ceri Whitmore Stephan Weiss 《European Journal of Sport Science》2016,16(4):393-401
Sprint and distance running have experienced remarkable performance improvements over the past century. Attempts to forecast running performances share an almost similarly long history but have relied so far on relatively short data series. Here, we compile a comprehensive set of season-best performances for eight Olympically contested running events. With this data set, we conduct (1) an exponential time series analysis and (2) a power-law experience curve analysis to quantify the rate of past performance improvements and to forecast future performances until the year 2100. We find that the sprint and distance running performances of women and men improve exponentially with time and converge at yearly rates of 4% ± 3% and 2% ± 2%, respectively, towards their asymptotic limits. Running performances can also be modelled with the experience curve approach, yielding learning rates of 3% ± 1% and 6% ± 2% for the women's and men's events, respectively. Long-term trends suggest that: (1) women will continue to run 10–20% slower than men, (2) 9.50 s over 100 m dash may only be broken at the end of this century and (3) several middle- and long-distance records may be broken within the next two to three decades. The prospects of witnessing a sub-2 hour marathon before 2100 remain inconclusive. Our results should be interpreted cautiously as forecasting human behaviour is intrinsically uncertain. The future season-best sprint and distance running performances will continue to scatter around the trends identified here and may yield unexpected improvements of standing world records. 相似文献
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Drew Polly Christie S. Martin Jennifer R. McGee Chuang Wang Richard G. Lambert David K. Pugalee 《Early Childhood Education Journal》2017,45(5):659-669
This study examines the influence of a year-long mathematics professional development program on Kindergarten teachers’ beliefs, content knowledge, instructional practices, and their students’ achievement. The professional development program is grounded in the theoretical construct of learner-centered professional development and focuses on supporting teachers’ integration of standards-based pedagogies aligned with the Common Core State Standards in Mathematics. Data analysis included examining 15 Kindergarten teachers’ mathematics content knowledge, their beliefs about mathematics, their enactment of student-centered pedagogies, and student achievement on curriculum-based assessments. Findings indicated that teachers adopted more student-centered pedagogies and embraced more student-centered beliefs about mathematics teaching during their time in the project. Further, Kindergarten teachers also demonstrated gains in their mathematical content knowledge, and those content knowledge gains were linked to gains in student achievement. 相似文献
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