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Forecast errors in preelectoral polls are common. Since theNicaraguan Election in 1990, a common assumption is that wheredemocratic practices are not equal to those of the developedcountries (authoritarian, in transition, etc.), the errors inpredicting electoral outcomes with the help of pre-electoralpolls result mostly from contextual effects related to the authoritariannature of the political systems. Forecast errors in developeddemocracies have been explained by flaws in sampling (GreatBritain), last minute changes in preferences (Spain, UnitedStates, and France) and a social desirability bias in the UnitedStates. The intention of this paper is to show that in Mexicoboth the accuracy and the sources of error in predicting electoralresults are very similar to those confronted by pollsters elsewhere:mostly sampling and allocation of nonrespondents and those whoare undecided. An extensive data set of pre-electoral pollsconducted in Mexico shows an average error in the order of 3–5percentage points. Some of this error could be related to sociallydesirable answers derived from contextual effects, but thiseffect is small and must not be generalized. 相似文献
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Malcolm Clark Yunhyong Kim Udo Kruschwitz Dawei Song Dyaa Albakour Stephen Dignum Ulises Cerviño Beresi Maria Fasli Anne De Roeck 《Information processing & management》2012
This paper presents an overview of automatic methods for building domain knowledge structures (domain models) from text collections. Applications of domain models have a long history within knowledge engineering and artificial intelligence. In the last couple of decades they have surfaced noticeably as a useful tool within natural language processing, information retrieval and semantic web technology. Inspired by the ubiquitous propagation of domain model structures that are emerging in several research disciplines, we give an overview of the current research landscape and some techniques and approaches. We will also discuss trade-offs between different approaches and point to some recent trends. 相似文献
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Ulises Mejias 《Critical Studies in Media Communication》2013,30(2):211-228
–A communicational reality is a culturally-specific conceptualization of social space constructed and shared by people through the act of communication. This article examines the role of technology in the construction of communicational realities, acknowledging that it is neither a neutral tool nor an autonomous agent in the process. The knowledge of how we use technology to engender communicational realities must contribute to the critical awareness of the individual in relation to the world. This knowledge must ultimately allow us to disassociate communication from those technologizings that lead, through the creation of virtual realities, to the separation of the knower from the known. Only by taking a critical look at the assumptions that our communication technologies lead us to make about the world, can we begin a process of reconceptualizing them away from their position as commodities to that of vehicles for self-knowledge and tools for the understanding and transformation of the world. This article introduces the concept of the sustainable communicational reality as a way to assess the values promoted by different conceptualizations and applications of communication technologies in our societies. 相似文献
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