| 城乡居民体育消费结构动态变迁的ELES模型分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 李国,孙庆祝.城乡居民体育消费结构动态变迁的ELES模型分析[J].北京体育大学学报,2019,42(1):98-110. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李国 孙庆祝 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京工业大学体育部,江苏 南京 211816,南京师范大学体育科学学院,江苏 南京 210023 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家社会科学基金项目（项目编号：13BTY014）;江苏省哲学社会科学基金项目（编号：17TYD001）;教育部人文社会科学研究青年项目（编号：16YJC890011）;山东省社会科学规划研究青年项目（编号：11DTYJ01）. |
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| 摘 要： | 摘要：主要采用文献资料、数理统计等研究方法,基于2001年、2007年与2014年国家体育总局开展的城乡居民体育锻炼现状调查数据,以扩展线性支出系统模型（ELES模型）为分析工具,对城乡居民体育消费结构动态变迁进行实证分析。研究表明,2001年、2007年与2014年体育消费结构构成比呈非常显著性差异（（X2=268.7,P<0.01）,体育消费结构发生明显变迁。在体育消费边际倾向方面,2014年体育消费边际倾向为0.120959, 2007年体育消费边际倾向为0.159686, 2001年为0.074728,体育消费边际倾向略有波动。在收入弹性方面,“体育书报、观看比赛、其他体育消费”等发展型、享受型、多元化的体育消费品的收入弹性系数大于1,消费需求的增长幅度超过了收入的增长幅度,已成为城乡居民的消费热点。在价格弹性方面,各类体育消费品的自价格弹性系数介于-0.358579～-0.715792之间,价格上涨会影响自身需求量。各类体育消费品的交叉弹性系数介于-0.000049～-0.03399之间,其中“租用场地与聘请教练”的交叉价格弹性系数最大,其价格变化能够对其他类别体育消费品产生一定影响。最后提出了促进城乡居民体育消费结构优化升级的现实路径,对于促进体育消费增长、优化体育消费结构具有重要意义。
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| 关 键 词： | 关键词：城乡居民 体育消费：结构 |
| 收稿时间： | 2016/11/24 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2018/11/9 0:00:00 |
ELES Model Analysis on Dynamic Change of Sports Consumption Structure of Urban and Rural Residents |
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| LI Guo and SUN Qing-zhu.ELES Model Analysis on Dynamic Change of Sports Consumption Structure of Urban and Rural Residents[J].Journal of Beijing Sport University,2019,42(1):98-110. |
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| Authors: | LI Guo and SUN Qing-zhu |
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| Institution: | Nanjing Tech University, Nanjing 211816, Jiangsu China and Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023, Jiangsu China |
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| Abstract: | Abstract: Based on the survey data of urban and rural residents'' physical exercise carried out by the State General Administration of Sports in 2001, 2007 and 2014, using the extended linear expenditure system model (ELES model) as an analytical tool, this study did an empirical analysis on the dynamic changes of sports consumption structure of urban and rural residents by using the methods of literature review and mathematical statistics. The results showed that: The proportion of sports consumption structure in 2001, 2007 and 2014 showed significant difference (X2 = 268.7, P < 0.01); the structure of sports consumption had undergone obvious changes. The marginal propensity of sports consumption fluctuated slightly, in 2014 it was 0.120959, in 2007 it was 0.159686, and in 2001 it was 0.074728. In terms of income elasticity, the income elasticity coefficients of developing, enjoyable and diversified sports consumables such as sports books and newspapers, watching competitions and other sports consumption were more than 1, and the growth rate of consumption demand exceeded the growth rate of income, which had become a hot point of consumption for urban and rural residents. In terms of price elasticity, the price elasticity coefficient of all kinds of sports consumer goods ranged from -0.358579 to -0.715792; rising prices would affect demand. The cross elasticity coefficient of all kinds of sports consumer goods ranged from -0.000049 to -0.03399; the cross price elasticity coefficient of "renting place and hiring coach" was the largest, and its price change can have a certain impact on other categories of sports consumer goods. Finally this study put forward the realistic path to promote the optimization and upgrading of sports consumption structure of urban and rural residents, which is of great significance for promoting the growth of sports consumption and optimizing sports consumption structure. |
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| Keywords: | Keywords: urban and rural residents sports consumption structure |
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