| 优化的长山水道船舶交通流量灰色系统预测模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 马晓波,刘雪菲,戴冉.优化的长山水道船舶交通流量灰色系统预测模型[J].上海海事大学学报,2016,37(2):12-16. |
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| 作者姓名： | 马晓波 刘雪菲 戴冉 |
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| 作者单位： | 大连海事大学 航海学院,上海交通大学 中美物流研究院,大连海事大学 航海学院 |
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| 摘 要： | 为提高长山水道船舶交通流量的预测精度，对灰色系统中的GM(1,1)模型进行优化.在对长山水道船舶交通流量进行分析的基础上，通过改进GM(1,1)模型背景值、改变初始条件、增加新信息优先权、引入残差修正等方法对GM(1,1)模型进行优化.通过该优化模型的预测数据与历史数据的比较验证了该优化模型的准确性和可靠性.最后用该优化模型对长山水道2015—2016年的船舶交通流量进行了预测.
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| 关 键 词： | 水路运输 船舶交通流量 灰色预测 GM(1 1)优化模型 |
| 收稿时间： | 2015/10/11 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2015/11/28 0:00:00 |
Optimized grey system prediction model on ship traffic flow of Changshan Channel |
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| Institution: | Navigation College of Dalian Maritime University,Sino-US Global Logistics Institute of Shanghai Jiao Tong University |
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| Abstract: | In order to improve the prediction accuracy of ship traffic flow of Changshan Channel, the GM(1,1) model in the grey system is optimized. Based on the analysis on ship traffic flow of Changshan Channel, the GM(1,1) model is optimized by improving the model background value, changing the initial conditions, adding the priority of new information, and introducing residual modification. Through the comparison of the predicted data by the optimized model and the historical data, the accuracy and reliability of the optimized model is verified. Finally, the ship traffic flow of Changshan Channel in 2015 2016 is predicted by the optimized model. |
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| Keywords: | waterway transportation ship traffic flow grey prediction optimized GM(1 1) model |
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