| 基于多层线性模型的耕地集约利用对粮食生产力贡献度分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 宋佳楠,金晓斌,周寅康.基于多层线性模型的耕地集约利用对粮食生产力贡献度分析[J].资源科学,2010,32(6):1161-1168. |
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| 作者姓名： | 宋佳楠 金晓斌 周寅康 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京大学地理与海洋科学学院,南京 210093;南京大学地理与海洋科学学院,南京 210093;南京大学地理与海洋科学学院,南京 210093 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家科技支撑计划：“土地整理关键技术集成与应用之中部粮食主产区增量经济型土地整理技术开发”（编号：2008BAB38B06）。 |
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| 摘 要： | 传统回归分析方法处理多层结构数据时,采用“集中”或“分解”两种方式将问题进行简化,结果是忽略了个体效应或组织效应。针对传统回归分析方法处理多层数据的这种局限,采用多层线性模型研究不同行政层次耕地利用集约度对粮食生产力的贡献度以及资金投入对粮食单产的影响。选择内蒙古自治区所辖的12个盟市和81个旗县为研究区,通过建立耕地利用集约度评价指标体系求算盟市层次与旗县层次的集约度,构建四个多层线性模型得到粮食单产差异的解释方差比例。结果显示,粮食单产的影响因素是多层次的,旗县耕地利用集约度可以解释各旗县粮食单产差异的52.35%,盟市的集约度影响旗县集约度对粮食单产回归截距的36.06%,财政支农资金影响截距的12.77%。研究结果表明粮食生产力的差异大部分归因于各旗县的集约利用程度不同,而各盟市的“背景效应”同样不能忽略,特别是资金投入对提高粮食产量具有重要作用。
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| 关 键 词： | 耕地利用 集约度 粮食生产力 贡献度 多层线性模型 内蒙古自治区 |
| 修稿时间： | 4/5/2010 12:00:00 AM |
A Study on the Contribution Rate of Agricultural Land Use Intensity to Grain Productivity Based on Hierarchical Linear Models |
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| SONG Jianan,JIN Xiaobin and ZHOU Yinkang.A Study on the Contribution Rate of Agricultural Land Use Intensity to Grain Productivity Based on Hierarchical Linear Models[J].Resources Science,2010,32(6):1161-1168. |
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| Authors: | SONG Jianan JIN Xiaobin and ZHOU Yinkang |
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| Abstract: | Data of hierarchical structure are involved in numerous social-science studies. Traditional regression analysis methods usually "centralize" or "break" the data to simplify problems when it comes to data of hierarchical structure. However, "centralizing" and "breaking" the hierarchical data would inevitably lead to ignorance of the individual effects and organizational effects. Aiming at the limitations which would manifest when dealing with data of hierarchical structure by traditional regression analysis methods, the authors adopted Hierarchical Linear Models to analyze the contribution rate of agricultural land use intensity to grain productivity in terms of different administrative levels, as well as the influence of capital investment to grain yield per hectare. Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region of China was taken as the study area, which is one of major grain-producing provinces in recent years. Based on municipal and county-level agricultural data from 12 cities and 81 counties in Inner Mongolia from 2000 to 2008, the authors calculated the intensity degree by means of an index system of the intensive use of agricultural land. The index system of the intensive use of agricultural land was built on the basis of three aspects: intensity of input, utilization and sustainability. Then four hierarchical linear models were built and each of them provided an explained variance proportion. The explained variance proportions helped explain contribution of the intensity degree at different administrative levels and agricultural capital investment to grain yield per hectare. Results showed that there are multi-level factors affecting grain productivity. The county-level agricultural land use intensity can generally explain 52.35% of the differences in grain yields, and the municipal agricultural land use intensity and agricultural capital investment explain 36.06% and 12.77% of the regression intercede, respectively. The regression intercede here represents an indirect influence of municipal level factors on grain yield per hectare through county-level factors. Besides, measuring results also showed that land use intensity at municipal and county levels has strong positive interaction. Although the difference in grain productivity depends largely on the intensive use at county levels, the municipal "background effect" cannot be ignored. Cities with high intensity degree will bring more capital and material support to counties under their jurisdiction, and the municipal capital investment plays an important role in improving grain productivity. However, due to the low efficiency of agricultural expenditure use at the county level, which can be represented by three group of Level-1 equation graphing with Z-focus, municipal capital investment and grain productivity are not entirely positively correlated. Impact of agricultural capital investment on grain productivity would be more significant if efficiency of expenditure use get improved. |
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