| 交通基础设施与中国人口迁移:基于引力模型分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 马伟,王亚华,刘生龙.交通基础设施与中国人口迁移:基于引力模型分析[J].中国软科学,2012(3):69-77. |
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| 作者姓名： | 马伟 王亚华 刘生龙 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 清华大学 公共管理学院,北京,100084
2. 中国社会科学院 数量经济与技术经济研究所,北京,100732 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金，新世纪优秀人才支持计划资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文基于引力模型研究了人口迁移的影响因素和机制,重点分析了以火车交通时间为表征的交通基础设施改善对人口迁移的影响。根据1987、1995、2005三次全国1%抽样调查人口迁移数据进行的面板分析,结果发现交通基础设施改善极大地影响了人口迁移,其中火车交通时间提速1%将会促使跨省人口迁移增加约0.8%。这表明,交通基础设施改善能够显著地促进人口或劳动力要素的自由流动和最优配置。
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| 关 键 词： | 人口迁移 引力模型 交通基础设施 |
Transportation Infrastructure and population Migration in China:An Analysis Based on Gravity Model |
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| MA Wei
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WANG Ya-hua
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LIU Sheng-long.Transportation Infrastructure and population Migration in China:An Analysis Based on Gravity Model[J].China Soft Science,2012(3):69-77. |
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| Authors: | MA Wei WANG Ya-hua LIU Sheng-long |
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| Institution: | 1.School of Public Policy & Management,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China; 2.Institute of Quantitative & Technical Economics,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100732,China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on gravity model,this paper aims at analyzing the factors that have been affecting population migration in China,paying main attention to the impacts of transportation infrastructure improvement represented by train commuting minutes upon population migration.According to the panel data of 1% sample population migration surveys in 1987,1995 and 2005,we find that transportation infrastructure improvement does significantly affect population migration,say 1% downward change in train commuting minutes will positively drive 0.8% upward change in population migration.In sum,transportation infrastructure construction will improve free flow and better allocation of labor or population. |
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| Keywords: | population migration gravity model transportation infrastructure |
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