| 基于STRPAT模型的碳排放情景分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 钟少芬,郭晓娟,刘煜平,莫健文.基于STRPAT模型的碳排放情景分析[J].科技管理研究,2019,39(17):253-258. |
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| 作者姓名： | 钟少芬 郭晓娟 刘煜平 莫健文 |
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| 作者单位： | 东莞理工学院化学工程与能源技术学院,广东东莞,523808;广东省特种设备检测研究院东莞检测院/东莞市特种设备检测技术服务中心,广东东莞,523120 |
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| 基金项目： | 广东省“创新强校工程”项目“节能减排目标下的低碳情况分析与政策研究—以东莞为例 ”(2016WQNCX140),东莞市社会科技发展(一般)项目立项(20185071401220)； |
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| 摘 要： | 科学合理预测碳排放发展对建设低碳城市具有重要指导意义。以东莞市为例,采用基于扩展STIRPAT模型,通过岭回归拟合得到碳排放量与地区生产总值、人口、城市化、人均消费支出、工业化及能源利用效率的多元线性模型。在此基础上,根据低碳社会发展各个不同阶段设定基准情景、低碳情景、节能情景对碳排放量进行预测及减排潜力分析。研究结果表明,人口数量对碳排放的影响最大,城市化率影响最小;碳排放量在基准情景下预计2020年达到8 246 t,2025年达到8 177 t,而在节能情景、低碳情景下碳排放量均有不同程度的下降。在低碳发展政策措施及一系列低碳发展行动与技术支撑下,东莞市碳排放仍具有较大的减排潜力。
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| 关 键 词： | STIRPAT模型 岭回归 碳排放 情景分析 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019/3/12 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2019/9/6 0:00:00 |
Scenario Analysis on carbon Emission Based on the STIRPAT model |
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| Zhong Shaofen,Guo Xiaojuan,Liu Yuping,Mo Jianwen.Scenario Analysis on carbon Emission Based on the STIRPAT model[J].Science and Technology Management Research,2019,39(17):253-258. |
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| Authors: | Zhong Shaofen Guo Xiaojuan Liu Yuping Mo Jianwen |
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| Institution: | (School of Chemical Engineering and Energy Technology, Dongguan University of Technology, Dongguan 523808, China;Dongguan Special Equipment Testing Technology Service Center, Guangdong Institute of Special Equipment Inspection and Research Dongguan Branch, Dongguan 523120, China) |
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| Abstract: | It is of great guiding significant to prediction the carbon emission development for construction of low-carbon cities. Taking Dongguan City as an example, This paper built a expanded STIPRAT-based multivariate linear model fitted by a ridge regression to examine the relationship between carbon emissions and GDP, population, urbanization, per capita consumption expenditure, industrialization and energy efficiency. OnSthisSbasis, three scenarios: Business as Usual Scenario,Energy-saving Scenario,Low-carbon Scenario were set.we forecast carbon emission and analyze the emission reduction potential according to the different stages of the development of a low-carbon society. The results showed that the population had the greatest influence on carbon emission and urbanization rate has the least impact,SCarbon emissions are expected to be 8246t in 2020 and 8177t in 2025 under the Business as Usual Scenario, While carbon emissions have a different degree of decline on Energy-saving Scenario,Low-carbon Scenario. SDongguan city still has a great potential for carbon emission reduction for the Ssupport of low-carbon development policies and a series of low-carbon development actions and technologies. |
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| Keywords: | STIRPAT ridge regression carbon emissions scenario analysis |
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