| 基于时间序列模型的福建省高考录取率预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 魏针,李细玉春.基于时间序列模型的福建省高考录取率预测[J].福建工程学院学报,2012(4):397-400. |
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| 作者姓名： | 魏针 李细玉春 |
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| 作者单位： | 福建工程学院教务处 |
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| 摘 要： | 高中毕业生数和普通高等教育招生数是影响高考录取率的2个重要因素。分析福建省小学、初中、高中各阶段的毕业率和升学率以及普通高等教育招生数,用时间序列方法分别建立合适的数学模型,进而预测高中毕业生人数和普通高等教育招生人数,推测出高考录取率的短期发展趋势。预测结果表明,2014—2015年福建省高考录取率可能逼近100%。
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| 关 键 词： | 时间序列 招生 毕业生 录取率 预测 |
Prediction of college enrollment percentage in Fujian province based on time series model |
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| Institution: | Wei Zhen,Lixi Yuchun (Academic Department,Fujian University of Technology,Fuzhou 350118,China) |
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| Abstract: | The percentage of higher education institutions enrollment and the number of high-school graduates are two key factors in affecting college enrollment percentage.The number of enrolled students in higher education institutions,the graduates and enrollment percentages of primary school,junior high school and senior high school in Fujian province are analysed.Corresponding mathematical models of the enrollment percentages or graduation percentages are constructed by using the time series methods.The numbers of high-school graduates and higher education institution enrollment are estimated.The short-term trend of college enrollment is predicted.The results show that the college enrollment percentage in Fujian province will approximate 100% during 2014 and 2015. |
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| Keywords: | time series enrollment graduate enrollment percentage prediction |
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