| 船舶市场趋势预测的三阶段模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 蒋元涛,杜裕,蔡敏.船舶市场趋势预测的三阶段模型[J].上海海事大学学报,2015,36(2):74-78. |
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| 作者姓名： | 蒋元涛 杜裕 蔡敏 |
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| 作者单位： | 上海海事大学 经济管理学院,上海海事大学 经济管理学院,上海海事大学 经济管理学院 |
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| 基金项目： | 上海市教育委员会科研创新项目（12YZ117）；上海市科学技术委员会软科学研究重点项目（14692105200） |
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| 摘 要： | 为提高船舶市场趋势预测的精度,针对以往在神经网络应用时仅单纯改进隐层环节算法的局限性,综合模糊聚类方法、数据修正和插值算法,对输入环节的数据进行降维和增量处理,构建船舶市场趋势预测的三阶段模型.首先,利用模糊聚类方法对历史数据进行分类,降低数据非线性;然后,通过数据修正和插值算法,在不改变数据规律的情况下增加每类数据的数据量;最后,利用处理完毕的数据训练神经网络.实例结果证明,三阶段模型在船舶市场趋势预测方面是有效的.
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| 关 键 词： | 船舶市场 趋势预测 模糊聚类 神经网络 |
| 收稿时间： | 2014/10/14 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2015/1/21 0:00:00 |
Three-stage model of ship market trend prediction |
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| JIANG Yuantao;DU Yu;CAI Min.Three-stage model of ship market trend prediction[J].Journal of Shanghai Maritime University,2015,36(2):74-78. |
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| Authors: | JIANG Yuantao;DU Yu;CAI Min |
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| Institution: | shanghai maritime university+school of Economics and Management |
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| Abstract: | In order to improve the prediction accuracy of ship market trend, in view of the limitation that the neural network is simply used to improve the algorithm in the hidden layer, the reduction of data dimension and the increase of the data amount are carried out in the input layer by the fuzzy clustering method, data correction and interpolation algorithm, and a three stage model of ship market trend prediction is constructed. First, the fuzzy clustering method is used to classify the historical data to reduce the nonlinearity of data. Then, through the data correction and interpolation algorithm, the amounts of various types of data increase without changing data regularity. Finally, the neural network is trained by the processed data. The application results show that the three stage model is effective in the ship market trend prediction. |
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| Keywords: | ship market trend prediction fuzzy clustering neural network |
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