| 中日经济周期协动性的贸易传导效应实证分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 宋明悦,李浩.中日经济周期协动性的贸易传导效应实证分析[J].科技与管理,2013(6):125-130. |
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| 作者姓名： | 宋明悦 李浩 |
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| 作者单位： | 宁波大学商学院,浙江宁波315211 |
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| 摘 要： | 分析双边贸易强度、产业结构相似度、出口结构相似度和产业内贸易指数与经济周期协动性的相关性,利用1990-2011年的季度数据建立OLS与3SLS模型对比分析中日经济周期协动性的贸易传递效应,研究结果表明：双边贸易强度、产业结构相似度、出口结构相似度以及产业内贸易与经济周期协动性是正相关的;在经济周期协动性的贸易传导因素中,产业结构相似度对经济周期协动性的影响系数最小,出口结构、产业内贸易相似度对经济周期协动性的影响较大.
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| 关 键 词： | 经济周期协动性 贸易强度 产业结构相似度 出口结构相似度 产业内贸易 |
Empirical analysis of the international trade transmission mechanism of Sino-Japan business cycle synchronization |
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| SONG Ming-yue,LI Hao.Empirical analysis of the international trade transmission mechanism of Sino-Japan business cycle synchronization[J].Science-Technology and Management,2013(6):125-130. |
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| Authors: | SONG Ming-yue LI Hao |
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| Institution: | (School of Business, Ningbo University, Ningbo 315211, China) |
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| Abstract: | This thesis examines the impacts of bilateral trade intensity, exports similarity, industry similarity and intra-industry share on business cycle synchronization. Based on the quarterly economic data from 1990 to 2011 ,this paper performs an empirical analysis of the international trade transmission mechanism of the Sino-Japan business cycle synchronization with the measurement methods of OLS and 3SLS. The results show that bilateral trade intensi- ty, exports similarity, industry similarity and intra-industry share are positively correlated with business cycle syn- chronization between China and Japan. The thesis also points out that industry similarity on the impact of synchroni- zation is smaller than exports similarity and intra-industry share. |
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| Keywords: | business cycle synchronization trade intensity industrial similarity similarity of exports intra-industry |
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