| 基于自由现金流量的财务预警指标体系的构建与检验——来自中国机械制造业A股上市公司的经验数据 |
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| 引用本文： | 钱爱民,张淑君,程幸.基于自由现金流量的财务预警指标体系的构建与检验——来自中国机械制造业A股上市公司的经验数据[J].中国软科学,2008(9). |
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| 作者姓名： | 钱爱民 张淑君 程幸 |
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| 作者单位： | 对外经济贸易大学,国际商学院,北京,100029 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家社会科学基金，新世纪优秀人才支持计划 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文以自由现金流量为基础构建财务预警指标体系,全面评价企业的偿债能力、营运能力、收益质量和财务弹性,并运用主成分分析和逻辑回归方法对中国机械制造业A股上市公司2002年至2006年的数据进行分析.研究发现不同的ST、非ST公司比例组合成的样本预警效果不同,自由现金流量指标体系可以提前两年对公司财务危机做出较为准确的预警.
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| 关 键 词： | 自由现金流量 财务危机 财务预警 实证分析 |
Construction and Examination of Financial Early-warning System Based on Free Cash Flow:Evidence from China's A Share Listed Companies in Manufacturing Industry |
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| QIAN Ai-min,ZHANG Shu-jun,CHENG Xing.Construction and Examination of Financial Early-warning System Based on Free Cash Flow:Evidence from China's A Share Listed Companies in Manufacturing Industry[J].China Soft Science,2008(9). |
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| Authors: | QIAN Ai-min ZHANG Shu-jun CHENG Xing |
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| Abstract: | On the basis of free cash flow,this essay first builds a financial early-warning system,which assesses solvency,operating capacity,earning quality and financial flexibility of a company.Then test the validity of the early-warning system by principal component analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis using the data of China's A share listed companies in manufacturing industry from 2002 to 2006.The result suggests that with different portion of ST companies and non-ST companies in the sample,the validity of the systen is different,and the free cash flow based system can reach a satisfying early-warning effect before two years of the financial distress. |
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| Keywords: | free cash flow financial distress financial early-warning empirical analysis |
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