| 基于Morlet小波的龙川江流域年径流变化的周期性分析及趋势预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 何进花,丁文荣.基于Morlet小波的龙川江流域年径流变化的周期性分析及趋势预测[J].思茅师范高等专科学校学报,2011(6):36-41. |
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| 作者姓名： | 何进花 丁文荣 |
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| 作者单位： | 云南师范大学旅游与地理科学学院 |
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| 基金项目： | 云南省自然科学基金资助项目(编号:2009CD053) |
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| 摘 要： | 采用Morlet小波函数对龙川江流域1960—2008年径流量时间序列进行了多尺度周期性分析,通过小波方差确定径流序列的主要周期,并根据径流主周期对未来径流量变化进行了预测。结果表明：径流量变化的时间尺度为6a、20a和12a,其中12a的周期振荡最强,为径流量变化主周期;依据主周期的变化趋势,预测2009年前后龙川江流域年径流量将偏多,大约在2010—2020年径流量将偏少。因此,小波分析可以用来进行水资源量的趋势分析,为区域水资源的合理开发利用和未来决策提供依据。
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| 关 键 词： | Morlet小波 径流量 周期性 龙川江流域 |
Period Analysis and Trend Forecasting Annual Runoff in Langcang River Basin Based on Morlet Wavelet Function |
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| HE Jin-hua,DING wen-rong.Period Analysis and Trend Forecasting Annual Runoff in Langcang River Basin Based on Morlet Wavelet Function[J].Journal of Simao Teachers' College,2011(6):36-41. |
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| Authors: | HE Jin-hua DING wen-rong |
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| Institution: | (School of Tourism and Geographical Science,Yunnan Normal University,Kunming,650092,China) |
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| Abstract: | According to the annual runoff of Longchuanjiang River Basin from 1960 to 2008,This article using Morlet wavelet function,analyzed the periodic variation characteristics in multi-time scales of annual runoff.At the same time,the main periods of each time series are identified by estimating wavelet variance,and based on the main periods predicted future runoff.The results show that the major periods of the time series are about 6 years,20 years and 12 years,including 12 years and periodic oscillations,strongest for runoff change Lord cycle;According to main period changes forecast annual runoff would deviate to higher about 2009 and to lower between 2010 and 2020 in Longchuanjiang Basin.Therefore,the wavelet analysis can be used for water quantity of the trend analysis of regional water resources,providing the basis for the rational development and utilization of and future decision. |
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| Keywords: | Morlet wavelet function Runoff Period Longchuanjiang River basin |
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