| 未来三年我国粮食产量预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 郭佳欣,刘莉,赵展,朱家明.未来三年我国粮食产量预测[J].宜宾学院学报,2014(12):121-125. |
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| 作者姓名： | 郭佳欣 刘莉 赵展 朱家明 |
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| 作者单位： | 安徽财经大学统计与应用数学学院,安徽蚌埠233030 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学项目（61305070）; 大学生创业创新项目（201310378056） |
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| 摘 要： | 根据我国农业粮食供求总量趋紧的现状,通过Matlab等软件进行编程分析,建立农业发展预测模型预测未来三年主要粮食品种的产量.利用层次分析、灰色预测等方法,探究出了影响我国粮食产量亟待解决的四个问题:(1)仍有2亿人口的粮食不能自给;(2)缺水,地少;(3)农村贫困人口生活问题;(4)农转非,城市化建设.给出了此四大因素的影响次序为(2)(1)(3)(4).并根据模型分析了我国农业未来发展方向.
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| 关 键 词： | 农业未来发展 层次分析法 灰色预测 Matlab 灵敏度分析 |
Prediction Model of Grain Yield in the Next Three Years |
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| Authors: | GUO Jiaxin LIU Li ZHAO Zhan ZHU Jiaming |
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| Institution: | (Institute of Statistics and Applied Mathematics, Anhui University of Finance and Economics, Bengbu, Anhui 233030, China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the current situation of grain supply shortage in China, using Matlab software to program and analyze,an agriculture development prediction model was established, and China＇s main corps yield in the following three yearswas predicted. Using hierarchy analysis and grey prediction method, it reveals that four problems needed to be solved ur-gently in the rural area and the sequence of the four factors are presented as follow：（1） shortage of grain supply for 200 million population;（2） lack of water and land;（3） livelihood issues for rural poor population;（4） urbanization constructionof transforming agricultural residents to non-agricultural residents. Its priority is（2）（1）（3）（4）. An analysis report on futuredevelopment direction of China＇s agriculture was given according to the model. |
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| Keywords: | future development of agriculture AHP grey prediction Matlab sensitivity analysis |
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