| 中国未来粮食综合生产能力与粮食安全保障 |
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| 引用本文： | 周小萍,陈百明,汪鹏.中国未来粮食综合生产能力与粮食安全保障[J].北京师范大学学报(社会科学版),2006(6):134-140. |
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| 作者姓名： | 周小萍 陈百明 汪鹏 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京师范大学,管理学院,北京,100875;中国科学院,地理科学与资源研究所,北京,100101;重庆市土地勘测规划院,重庆,400020 |
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| 摘 要： | 粮食综合生产能力的高低,直接关系到粮食的有效供给,关系到国家的粮食安全。根据粮食生产现实生产能力、耕地资源数量和质量的变化,预测全国及各省份耕地资源2020年粮食综合生产能力,并从宏观角度对粮食需求与粮食生产能力进行平衡分析,认为:如果粮食综合生产能力取低方案(56483.54万吨),按400公斤、420公斤人均粮食占有量标准,得到粮食安全状况两个方案:取400公斤人均粮食占有量,全国粮食自给率为98.47%;取420公斤人均粮食占有量,粮食自给率为93.87%。这说明,在现有的经济技术条件下,如果能从数量和质量上实现本研究最低评估方案的粮食综合生产能力,通过区域间协调,中国未来能基本保障粮食安全。
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| 关 键 词： | 粮食综合生产能力 粮食需求 粮食安全 |
| 文章编号： | 1002-0209（2006）06-0134-07 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-05-15 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-05-15 |
Future Comprehensive Grain Production Capacity and Food Security in China |
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| ZHOU Xiao-ping,CHEN Bai-ming,WANG Peng.Future Comprehensive Grain Production Capacity and Food Security in China[J].Journal of Beijing Normal University(Social Science Edition),2006(6):134-140. |
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| Authors: | ZHOU Xiao-ping CHEN Bai-ming WANG Peng |
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| Institution: | 1. School of Management, BNU; Real Estate Research Center, BNU, Beijing 100875; 2. Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research , CAS , Beijing 100101; 3. Chongqing Institute of Surveying and Planning for Land,Chongqing 400020,China |
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| Abstract: | According to three factors,namely the actual grain production in 2004,the change of the quantity,and the quality of cultivated land,the future(2020) comprehensive grain production capacity of the whole nation and all the provinces will be evaluated.Then the comparison between the productive capacity and the demand is analyzed at the national level.We hence draw the conclusion that,by taking the lowest comprehensive grain production capacity evaluated in this paper and 400 kg grain possessing for per capita,China's self-sufficient ratio of grain production is 98.47%;and by taking 420 kg grain possessing for per capita,the self-sufficient ratio of grain production amounts to 93.87%.These indicate that the food security is realizable if we can attain the lowest comprehensive productive capacity of grain evaluated in this paper. |
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| Keywords: | comprehensive grain production capacity grain demand food security |
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