| 容积率对城市住宅用地交易价格影响的定量研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 王婵婵,丁和庚,吴群.容积率对城市住宅用地交易价格影响的定量研究[J].资源科学,2009,31(1):123-129. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王婵婵 丁和庚 吴群 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京农业大学中国土地问题研究中心， 南京 210095;南京农业大学中国土地问题研究中心， 南京 210095;南京农业大学中国土地问题研究中心， 南京 210095 |
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| 基金项目： | 国土资源部基金项目：“中国土地市场体系研究”；南京市科技局主持项目：“南京市土地资源优化配置与地价管理研究”（编号：U990005）。 |
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| 摘 要： | 为确定容积率对土地市场住宅交易价格的影响程度和方式，以容积率和房屋成本的理论关系为切入点，利用南京市区2005年～2007年10月底以公开出让方式成交的132幅住宅用地数据，采用比较分析法和最小二乘法分别就成交住宅用地单位地价和楼面地价与容积率的影响机制和影响程度进行了分析，另用江宁区33个交易案例作为比较样本对市区分析结果进行验证。结果证实用两种方法的结合有利于选择更加有效的模型，并能克服最小二乘法在计量统计中的缺陷。为量化区位性对此次研究的作用，在做主要变量定量分析之前，对楼面地价和单位价的区位性特征进行了检验，结果显示住宅用地到市中为距离每增加1km，单位地价和楼面地价随之下降235.29元/m2和120.45元/ m2。本文的主要研究结论为：①土地市场平稳运行过程中，控制区位因素后，容积率变化1%，住宅用地成交单位地价随之变化0.93%，且单位地价随容积率变动的弹性不因区位因素的变动而发生较大变化，因此如果不考虑其他因素的影响，政府可以通过调整出让地块容积率来影响住宅用地成交单位地价；②楼面地价受容积率的显著性影响很小、自身稳定性更高，能真实反映地价随年份的变化规律，更适宜作为地价的监测指标。
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| 关 键 词： | 影响机制 住宅用地 单位地价 楼面地价 容积率 比较分析和OLS 南京市 |
| 收稿时间： | 6/2/2008 12:00:00 AM |
Quantitative Study on the Influence of Capacity Density on Land Price of Urban Residential Land |
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| WANG Chanchan,DING Hegeng and WU Qun.Quantitative Study on the Influence of Capacity Density on Land Price of Urban Residential Land[J].Resources Science,2009,31(1):123-129. |
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| Authors: | WANG Chanchan DING Hegeng and WU Qun |
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| Abstract: | Much attention is paid by the public to rising house prices. Land price is also of concern, as it is an important part of house construction costs. In order to control the increase in house and land prices, the government has promulgated many policies involving finance and land, but the effects were limited. As an important index for controlling land use, capacity density imposed on land price is significant in theory, but in fact, land price is an ill-defined variable, with unknown extent and mode. Thus, the suggestion by some scholars that the use of capacity density as a tool causes land market distortions may be unreasonable to some extent. For analyzing the influence of capacity density on residential land market prices, and calculating the extent of this influence quantitatively, this paper sets the theoretical relationship between capacity density and housing cost as a starting point. We analyzed the degree of capacity density imposed on residential land market prices, using 132 data points on residential land in urban Nanjing traded on the open market from 2005 to end-October 2007. We then used 33 cases in the Jiangning district of Nanjing to validate the results. The result confirms that by combining the method of comparison with OLS, not only were models made more effective, but also the shortcoming of OLS was overcome. In order to prove the importance of location to residential land price, before quantitative analysis, we analyzed the effect of location characteristics on unit land price and floor_value. The results show that the unit land price and floor_value are reduced by 235.29 Yuan per square meter and 120.45 Yuan per square meter for every increase of 1 km in distance to the city centre. The main conclusions indicate that if the land market functions well and when controlled for location, when capacity density changes 1%, the unit price of residential land changes 0.93%. Controlling for location means that the flexibility of land unit price to capacity density is much more stable. Therefore, without considering the influence of other factors, it should be effective for government to control the unit price of residential land by regulating capacity density. Also, capacity density imposes almost no effect on floor_value, and the stability of floor_value is much higher. Therefore, floor_value is more suitable for monitoring the index of land price. |
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| Keywords: | Mechanism of influence Residential land Land unit price Value of floor Capacity density Comparison and OLS |
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