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| 区域土地利用竞争模拟模型与应用——以江西省为例 | |
| 引用本文： | 林英志,邓祥征,战金艳.区域土地利用竞争模拟模型与应用——以江西省为例[J].资源科学,2013,35(4):729-738. |
| 作者姓名： | 林英志 邓祥征 战金艳 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 中国地质大学(武汉)数学与物理学院,武汉,430074 2. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101;中国科学院农业政策研究中心,北京100101 3. 北京师范大学环境学院水环境模拟国家重点实验室,北京,100875 |
| 基金项目： | 国家重点基础研究发展计划(编号:2010CB950904);国家自然科学基金杰出青年基金项目(编号:71225005)、国家自然科学基金面上项目(编号:41071343)。 |
| 摘 要： | 本研究构建了区域土地利用竞争模拟模型,实现了对区域土地利用变化过程的模拟.区域土地利用竞争模拟模型包括非空间模块和空间模块两个主要模块.非空间模块基于可计算一般均衡建模思想,用以模拟区域经济发展、社会发展与生态环境发展驱动的土地利用变化需求.空间模块以多分类Logit模型为主体,用以实现区域土地利用变化需求的空间分配,输出区域土地利用格局图.江西省2000年-2005年的土地利用变化模拟检验结果表明,区域土地利用竞争模拟模型对江西省2005年的土地利用格局模拟总体精度达到77.68％,尤其是对林地的模拟精度达到86.87％.因此,区域土地利用竞争模拟模型能够用于区域土地利用变化模拟. |
| 关 键 词： | 土地利用 土地利用竞争 土地系统 土地系统动力学 模拟模型 江西省 |
Simulation of Regional Land Use Competition for Jiangxi Province |
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| LIN Yingzhi,DENG Xiangzheng and ZHAN Jinyan.Simulation of Regional Land Use Competition for Jiangxi Province[J].Resources Science,2013,35(4):729-738. | |
| Authors: | LIN Yingzhi DENG Xiangzheng and ZHAN Jinyan |
| Institution: | School of Mathematics and Physics, China University of Geosciences Wuhan, Wuhan 430074, China;Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China;Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China;State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China |
| Abstract: | As an important research field of global change and sustainable development, land use change has drawn much attention. Spatial dynamics of regional land use modeling can help to understand the dynamics of land use and project future land use trajectories in order to target management decisions. In this study, a spatially explicit simulation model of regional land use competition is developed to simulate regional land use change. The model is sub-divided into two distinct modules, namely a non-spatial module and a spatially explicit module. The non-spatial module is developed under the modeling framework of Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) to calculate the demand of land use change at the regional level. Economic growth, social development and ecological environment conservation are the three fundamental factors driving variation in regional land use change. Land use change demand is determined by the entire system consisting of economic subsystem, social subsystem, and ecological and environmental subsystem, since links in the comprehensive framework provided by CGE are tightly connected with each other. The spatially explicit module is a raster-based system that identifies the pixel tending to change in land use and allocate land use change demand calculated by the non-spatial module. A Multinomial Logistic Regression (MNL) model is introduced in the spatially explicit module to calculate the probability of a certain grid cell to be devoted to a land use change given a set of driving factors including location factors, topographic factors, environmental factors and soil properties. The MNL model is a regression model that generalizes a Logistic Regression (LR) model by allowing more than two discrete and unordered response variables. This method empirically describes the statistical relationships between driving factors and land use change rather than land use. Coupling the two modules, simulating regional land use competition can explicitly simulate regional land use change based on an empirical analysis of location suitability combined with the dynamic simulation of regional land use change demand. The results of comparative analysis using remote sensing data for Jiangxi Province in 2005 shows that there are 86.87% of pixels of forest and 66.26% of pixels of cultivated land correctly simulated by simulation model of regional land use competition. The total simulation accuracy of the model reached 77.68%. |
| Keywords: | Land use Land competition Land system Land system dynamics Simulation Model Jiangxi province |
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