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How to decide how to decide |
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| Authors: | R Bhaskar John A Herstein John R Hayes |
| Institution: | 1. Human Factors Laboratory, IBM Corporation, 12401, Kingston, NY, U.S.A. 2. Department of Political Science, SUNY at Stony Brook, New York, U.S.A. 3. Department of Psychology, Carnegie-Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, U.S.A. |
| Abstract: | This article attempts to characterize the general problem of selecting methods for decision-making. The traditional rational approach to choice is from economics, which offers expected-value maximization. The task environment of decision method selection, however, does not seem to provide the data necessary for carrying out the expected-value calculations. Our approach uses methods from the field of cognitive science. We develop the notion of domain size in fields such as chess, borrowing the concept of a chunk from human memory. We then develop a heuristic rule for choiceamongmethods. We propose this rule as one of many possible rules. |
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