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| 世界锂资源供需形势展望 | |
| 引用本文： | 邢佳韵,彭浩,张艳飞,陈其慎.世界锂资源供需形势展望[J].资源科学,2015,37(5):988-997. |
| 作者姓名： | 邢佳韵 彭浩 张艳飞 陈其慎 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 中国地质大学（北京）,北京 100083 2. 中国地质科学院矿产资源研究所,北京 100037 3. 万宝矿产有限公司,北京 100053 |
| 基金项目： | 国土资源部地质调查项目:"中国战略性矿产安全评价与支持系统建设"(12120114052901),"矿产资源勘查开发格局及对策研究"(12120114093501)。 |
| 摘 要： | 锂主要用于铝冶炼、空气处理、润滑剂、锂电池以及陶瓷和玻璃这五大消费部门中。近年来新能源汽车快速发展对锂电池的需求引发了人们对锂资源的高度关注。本文运用部门预测法,对2015-2025年世界各国对锂的需求进行综合分析,分析认为：①石墨烯与燃料电池技术发展缓慢的用锂高值情景下,锂需求会逐渐上升。2015年、2020年与2025年的全球锂需求为3.2、5.1、9.6万t;石墨烯与燃料电池技术发展快速的用锂低值情景下,锂需求达到顶峰后下降。2015、2020与2025年全球锂需求分别为3.2、4.9、4.2万t;②用锂高值情景下,全球锂资源消费结构会发生明显变化,锂电池成为第一大消费部门,2025年全球锂消费结构为电池66%,陶瓷和玻璃20%,润滑脂4%,空气处理2%,电解铝0.08%;用锂低值情景下,2025年陶瓷和玻璃以41%的消费占比继续保持第一大消费部门,其余部门的消费结构为电池25%,润滑脂10%,空气处理6%,铝冶炼0.19%;③全球锂资源丰富,储产比高达371年,2015-2020年全球锂产能将至少达到9.2万t,2015-2020年仍将持续供过于求的状态。用锂高值情景下,锂资源在2020年以后有供应趋紧的可能;用锂低值情景下,锂市场将持续供过于求的趋势。 |
| 关 键 词： | 锂需求 预测 锂电池 供需形势 |
| 收稿时间： | 3/2/2015 12:00:00 AM |
| 修稿时间： | 4/7/2015 12:00:00 AM |
Global lithium demand and supply |
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| XING Jiayun , PENG Hao , ZHANG Yanfei , CHEN Qishen.Global lithium demand and supply[J].Resources Science,2015,37(5):988-997. | |
| Authors: | XING Jiayun PENG Hao ZHANG Yanfei CHEN Qishen |
| Institution: | 1. China University of Geosciences（Beijing）,Beijing 100083,China 2. Institute of Mineral Resources,Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences,Beijing 100037,China 3. WANBAO Mining,Beijing 100053,China |
| Abstract: | Lithium is used in ceramics and glass,batteries,lubricating greases,air treatment,and primary aluminum production. With the development of electric vehicles,lithium demand will rise in the future and due to the uncertainty of the development of graphene-based batteries and fuel cell cars,forecasting lithium demand needs to be analyzed deeply. Here,we use sector demand methods,in terms of different countries,to comprehensively analyze lithium demand in 2015-2025. We found that under an optimistic scenario,lithium demand will go up gradually; global lithium demand in 2015,2020 and 2025 will be 32,51,96 thousand tons respectively. Under a pessimistic scenario,lithium demand will go down after peaking; and global lithium demand in 2015,2020 and 2025 will be 32、49、42 thousand tons,respectively. Under an optimistic scenario,consumption structure in 2025 will be batteries 66%,ceramics and glass 20%,lubricating greases 4%,air treatment 2%,and primary aluminum production 0.08%;under the pessimistic scenario consumption structure in 2025 will be ceramics and glass 41%,batteries 25%,lubricating greases 10%,air treatment 6%,and primary aluminum production 0.19%. Lithium resources are abundant globally and the reserves to production ratio is 371 years. Global lithium output capacity will at least reach 92 thousand tons. Supplier markets are still mainly occupied by four oligopolies. On account of abundant resources,lithium has less chance to encounter short supply. During 2015-2025 global lithium supply and demand will be balanced but because of rapid increasing demand after 2020,supply may become tighter. |
| Keywords: | lithium demand forecasting batteries supply |
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