| 中国分城乡学龄人口变动趋势分析 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 袁桂林,宗晓华,陈静漪.中国分城乡学龄人口变动趋势分析[J].教育科学,2006,22(1):16-18. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 袁桂林 宗晓华 陈静漪 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 东北师范大学,农村教育研究所,吉林,长春,130024 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“我国农村教育发展现状调查及农村教育发展指标体系研究”(03JZD0035) |
| |
| 摘 要： | 分城乡的学龄人口预测是制定未来教育发展规划的基础性研究。本文基于中国2000年人口普查资料,运用中国人口预测软件(CPPS)对我国未来人口进行分城乡预测。在人口预测的基础上,笔者从全国、城市、农村三个维度,对小学、初中、高中、大学四个阶段的适龄人口变动趋势进行详细分析,揭示出每个阶段学龄人口变化的具体特征,并提出相应的政策建议。
|
| 关 键 词： | 学龄人口 人口预测 |
| 文章编号： | 1002-8064（2006）01-0016-03 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-12-20 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005年12月20 |
A Dynamic Analysis On School-aged Population in China from City-country Dimension |
| |
| YUAN Gui-lin,ZONG Xiao-hua,CHEN jing-yi.A Dynamic Analysis On School-aged Population in China from City-country Dimension[J].Education Science,2006,22(1):16-18. |
| |
| Authors: | YUAN Gui-lin ZONG Xiao-hua CHEN jing-yi |
| |
| Institution: | Institution of Rural Education, Northeast Normal University, Jilin, Changchun, China |
| |
| Abstract: | Making plan for future development of education should be based on the forecast of school-aged population.By using CPPS and the fifth population census of China,this paper makes a forecast of future population from City-country Dimension.Base on the population forecast,the authors give a detailed dynamic analysis of school-aged Population,which contains primary,secondary and tertiary education,and from which the authors reveal the characteristics of each stage and make policy suggestion for the future development of education in China. |
| |
| Keywords: | school-aged population population forecast |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
|
