| 全运会金牌总分预测模型的建立 |
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| 引用本文： | 厉丽玉,陈志强.全运会金牌总分预测模型的建立[J].天津体育学院学报,2005,20(2):45-48. |
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| 作者姓名： | 厉丽玉 陈志强 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 浙江体育职业技术学院(筹)杭州,311231
2. 浙江大学体育部,杭州,310027 |
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| 基金项目： | 浙江省体育局社会科学、软科学课题子课题(项目编号:浙体办(2004)115号) |
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| 摘 要： | 根据竞技体育的发展规律和我国竞技体育体制及全运会运作机制,确定参加九运会的30个省、直辖市、自治区的金牌、总分的影响因素,运用体育科研数据统计处理系统软件包,计算典型指标,进而建立九运会的金牌、总分回归预测模型,经由方差分析及相关性统计计算和检验,证明该模型可用于十运会的金牌、总分预测。
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| 关 键 词： | 全运会 金牌 总分 预测模型 |
| 文章编号： | 1005-0000(2005)02-0045-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004年9月15日 |
The Forecasting Model for Gold Medals and Total Scores in National Game |
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| LI Li-yu,CHEN Zhi-qiang.The Forecasting Model for Gold Medals and Total Scores in National Game[J].Journal of Tianjin Institute of Physical Education,2005,20(2):45-48. |
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| Authors: | LI Li-yu CHEN Zhi-qiang |
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| Institution: | LI Li-yu1,CHEN Zhi-qiang2 |
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| Abstract: | In accordance to the developing regulation in competitive sport, the system of competitive sports in China and the operating mechanism ofNational Games, this article determined the factors which affect the number of gold medals and the total scores got by the thirty provinces, municipalitiesdirectly under the Central Government and autonomous regions,taking part in the ninth National Game.By utilizing sports scientific research statistics,it handles systematic software package, calculates typical variable, and thenestablishes the regressive equations for gold medals and the total scores in the ninth National Game. After analysis of variance, related calculation and test, the model is proved trustworthy and can be applied to forecast for the number of goldmedals and the total points in tenth National Game. |
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| Keywords: | National Games gold medals total scores forecasting model |
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