| 基于完全分解模型的中国万元GDP用水量变动及因素分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 佟金萍,马剑锋,刘高峰.基于完全分解模型的中国万元GDP用水量变动及因素分析[J].资源科学,2011,33(10):1870-1876. |
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| 作者姓名： | 佟金萍 马剑锋 刘高峰 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 河海大学应用管理科学研究所,南京210098／常州大学经济管理学院,常州213164
2. 河海大学应用管理科学研究所,南京210098／河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,南京210098 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(973 计划)子专题(编号：2010CB951104)；国家社会科学基金项目(编号：10AJY005，10CGL069)；教育部人文社科基金青年项目(编号：09YJC790125)；中国博士后科学基金项目(编号：20100471372)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文引入Laspeyres指数及其完全分解方法思想,构建万元GDP用水量的完全分解模型,从产业和地区两个层面对我国1997年至2009年万元GDP用水量的变动进行分解分析。研究结果显示,1997年-2009年,我国万元GDP用水量呈显著下降趋势,技术进步和结构调整是推动其大幅下降的两个重要因素;在产业层面,技术进步引发...
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| 关 键 词： | 万元GDP用水量 完全分解模型 因素分析 结构效应 效率效应 |
Analysis of Variations and Factors of Water Use Amount per Ten Thousand Yuan GDP in China Based on a Complete Decomposition Model |
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| TONG Jinping,MA Jianfeng and LIU Gaofeng.Analysis of Variations and Factors of Water Use Amount per Ten Thousand Yuan GDP in China Based on a Complete Decomposition Model[J].Resources Science,2011,33(10):1870-1876. |
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| Authors: | TONG Jinping MA Jianfeng and LIU Gaofeng |
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| Institution: | Institute of Management Science, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China; School of Economics and Management, Changzhou University, Changzhou 213164, China;Institute of Management Science, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China; School of Economics and Management, Changzhou University, Changzhou 213164, China;Institute of Management Science, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China; State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing 210098, China |
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| Abstract: | Water use amount per ten thousand Yuan GDP is an important macro criterion for water resources. Our goal is to lower it at the next stage. It is necessary to fully understand change characteristics and influencing factors of China's water use amount per ten thousand Yuan GDP to achieve the goal. The total change in water use amount per ten thousand Yuan GDP should be decomposed to separate out effects of each factor on it. Based on the Laspeyres index and complete decomposition theory, a complete decomposition model of water use amount per ten thousand Yuan GDP was built. Variations and factors of water use amount per ten thousand Yuan GDP for the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries in 31 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities for the period 1997-2009 were analyzed from the perspective of industry and region. Results show that: 1) there was a significant decrease in water use amount per ten thousand Yuan GDP in China between 1997 and 2009. 2) It is the primary factor of water use amount per ten thousand Yuan GDP of China that an improvement in water use efficiency of all industries and regions caused by technological advancement has been made. At industrial levels, the main contribution was made by that improvement in efficiency at regional levels made by the primary and tertiary industries and east, middle, and west China was remarkable. 3) At industrial levels, the structure change in the tertiary industry was also the important reason for lowering water use amount per ten thousand Yuan GDP. 4) At regional levels, compared with the prominent contribution made by the improvement in efficiency, the effect was not noteworthy that the magnitude of the regional structure change was relatively small. But the contribution rate made by regional structure change between 2007 and 2009 cannot be negligible. The reason is that in west and middle areas where water use amount per ten thousand Yuan GDP is relatively high, the ratio of economy is increasing. But at the same time in east areas where water use amount per ten thousand Yuan GDP is relatively low, the ratio of economy has begun to decline. This demonstrates that reasonable use of water resources may be ignored during the process of regional structure changes in recent years. Consequently, evolution and popularization of water-saving techniques serve as an essential approach to boosting industrial and regional water utilization efficiency and reducing water use amount per ten thousand Yuan GDP. |
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| Keywords: | Water use amount per ten thousand Yuan GDP Complete decomposition model Factor analysis Structure effect Efficiency effect |
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