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| 黄河上中游降水正态性与稳定性分析 | |
| 引用本文： | 夏权,马敏劲,李艳,张永泽.黄河上中游降水正态性与稳定性分析[J].资源科学,2013,35(7):1455-1462. |
| 作者姓名： | 夏权 马敏劲 李艳 张永泽 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所/甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点开放实验室,兰州730020;兰州大学大气科学学院,兰州730000;白银市气象局,白银730900 2. 兰州大学大气科学学院,兰州,730000 3. 白银市气象局,白银,730900 |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学青年基金项目(编号:41105109);兰州大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(编号:lzujbky-2012-120, lzujbky-2012-122);中国气象局干旱气象科学研究基金项目(编号:IAM201209)。 |
| 摘 要： | 基于1961-2011年黄河上中游45站年、月降水量资料,利用偏态(峰度)系数、变差系数、皮尔逊Ⅲ型分布等统计方法,对该区降水量进行正态性和稳定性分析,并拟合不同保证率下的年降水量及百年重现期.结果表明:年降水量有33.3％的台站未通过正态性检验.月降水量冬季各月几乎所有台站均不服从正态分布,夏季各月降水量正态性略好,但未通过正态性检验站数也在60％以上.对降水量进行非线性变换后的正态化效率达95.4％,其中1月、2月、3月平方根法优于立方根法,11月、12月反之,其余月份基本相同.降水稳定性冬季最差,春季次之,夏、秋季最好,从区域看,青海高原东部降水稳定性最好,河套北部最差.P=50％和P=80％保证率下的降水量自东南向西北递减,前者接近平均值,后者远低于平均值.有21个台站年降水量历史极大值突破了百年一遇,与年降水量未通过正态性检验的台站基本对应,主要集中在陇中-陇东-宁夏南部地区,该区域属于气候变化的敏感区和极端降水事件的多发区. |
| 关 键 词： | 降水 正态性检验 稳定性 保证率 重现期 黄河 |
Normality and Stability of Precipitation in the Upper and Middle Reaches of the Yellow River |
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| XIA Quan,MA Minjin,LI Yan and ZHANG Yongze.Normality and Stability of Precipitation in the Upper and Middle Reaches of the Yellow River[J].Resources Science,2013,35(7):1455-1462. | |
| Authors: | XIA Quan MA Minjin LI Yan and ZHANG Yongze |
| Institution: | Institute of Arid Meteorology, C M A, Lanzhou, Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Changing and Reducing Disaster of Gansu, Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Changing and Reducing Disaster of CMA, Lanzhou 730020, China;College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730020, China;Meteorological Bureau of Baiyin, Baiyin 730900, China;College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730020, China;College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730020, China;Meteorological Bureau of Baiyin, Baiyin 730900, China |
| Abstract: | Based on monthly and annual precipitation data at 45 stations from 1961 to 2011 for the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River (hereaefter, UMRYR), the normality and stability of precipitation were analyzed. The results show that 33.3% of stations had annual precipitation that did not pass the test for normality. The normality of monthly precipitation at southern stations was better than northern stations. All stations of monthly precipitation did not pass the normality test in winter, the normality of each month in summer is better than other months. The precipitation stability was worst in winter, the second was spring, and the best were in summer and autumn. Eastern Qinghai plateau had the best precipitation stability; the worst area was northern Hetao River band. For annual precipitation, normality and stability were different in different seasons and areas. The rainfall levels rapidly decreasing from southeast to northwest under guarantee rate of P= 50% and P=80%. For 21 stations, the maximum value of annual precipitation did not occur in a century, and these corresponded with stations where annual precipitation did not pass the normality test. |
| Keywords: | Precipitation Normality test Stability Guarantee rate Reproduce period Yellow River |
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