| 基于“三预”视角的区域气象灾害应急防御能力评价体系研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 曹玮,肖皓,罗珍.基于“三预”视角的区域气象灾害应急防御能力评价体系研究[J].情报杂志,2012(1):57-63,94. |
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| 作者姓名： | 曹玮 肖皓 罗珍 |
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| 作者单位： | 湖南大学经济与贸易学院;中国科学院系统科学研究所;长沙金霞经济开发区 |
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| 基金项目： | 湖南省重大科技专项基金资助项目“湖南省极端气象灾害预警评估技术体系研究与示范”(编号:2008FJ1006) |
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| 摘 要： | 基于"科学防范胜于救灾"的应急管理理念,从监测与预报能力、预警与发布能力以及预防与准备能力等三个方面构建指标体系,并引入变异系数对CRITIC法进行了改进,建立了基于改进CRITIC法的综合评价模型,形成了基于"三预"视角的区域气象灾害应急防御能力评价体系,该体系突出了"预报、预警、预防"在灾害防御中的重要地位。通过对中国31个省(市、自治区)的气象灾害应急防御能力进行实证分析,表明各区域气象灾害应急防御能力差异较为明显,呈现出东高、中中、西低的格局,且与经济发展水平呈现出高度的正相关性,这与现实情况基本相符,说明该评价体系具有较强的可操作性和实用性。
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| 关 键 词： | 气象灾害 应急防御能力 评价体系 改进CRITIC法 |
The Comprehensive Evaluation System for Regional Meteorological Disasters Emergency Defense Capability Based on the "Three Pre-" Perspective |
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| CAO Wei,XIAO Hao,LUO Zhen.The Comprehensive Evaluation System for Regional Meteorological Disasters Emergency Defense Capability Based on the "Three Pre-" Perspective[J].Journal of Information,2012(1):57-63,94. |
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| Authors: | CAO Wei XIAO Hao LUO Zhen |
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| Institution: | 1 School of Economics and Trade,Hunan University,Changsha,Hunan 410079; 2.Institute of Systems Science,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100090) 3.Changsha Jinxia Economic Development Zone,Changsha,Hunan 410201) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the concept of emergency management of "Scientific prevention is better than disaster relief",this paper is committed to construct the index system of meteorological disaster emergency capability from monitoring and predicting capability,pre-warning and publishing capability,preventing and preparing capability.By using coefficient of variation to improve the CRITIC method,it establishes a comprehensive evaluation model based on the improved CRITIC method,and then it forms the evaluation system of regional meteorological disasters emergency capability based on the "three pre-" perspective.This system shows that predicting,pre-warning and preventing play an important role in disaster defense.And then this paper also conducts empirical analysis for China’s 31 provinces(municipalities and autonomous regions) based on the proposed system.The results show that the meteorological disaster emergency defense capability of each region has significant difference.The regional pattern also shows the decreasing trend among the eastern,central and western region,and it has a high degree of positive correlation with the level of economic development.The evaluation results are basically consistent with reality,so the proposed system is proved to be strongly operational and practical. |
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| Keywords: | meteorological disaster emergency defense capability evaluation system improved CRITIC method |
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