| 智库视角下国外数字经济发展趋势及对策研究 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 吴静,张凤.智库视角下国外数字经济发展趋势及对策研究[J].科研管理,2022,43(8):32-39. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 吴静 张凤 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1.中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院，北京100190；
2.中国科学院大学 公共政策与管理学院，北京100049 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 近年来，全球数字经济进入全面爆发与竞争博弈期。密切关注国外数字经济发展趋势，成为我国保持数字经济竞争力的重要支柱，也成为智库研究和服务国家宏观决策的重要内容之一。面对当前智库开展数字经济趋势研究中存在的规范化方法和政策证据使用不足问题，本文以智库双螺旋法为指导，从数字经济技术与基建、经济与社会、规则与治理三个维度认识数字经济内涵本质，并结合数字化发展在国家内部、国家之间、全球治理三个尺度的侧重点差异，提出了数字经济三大维度×三个尺度的发展趋势二维分析框架。在此框架下，研究聚焦美国、欧盟等主要国家机构和智库，收集数字经济相关政策、报告等文本资料，结合关键词分析揭示了当前全球层面以及美国、欧盟的数字经济发展热点，进而在数字经济发展趋势的二维分析框架下，研判形成了国外数字经济发展的9大趋势。最终，文章审视了我国数字经济发展面临的问题，并提出对策建议。
|
| 关 键 词： | 智库双螺旋法 数字经济 发展趋势 政策分析 |
| 收稿时间： | 2022-05-29 |
| 修稿时间： | 2022-06-26 |
An analysis of the trend of digital economy in foreign countries and China′s countermeasures from the perspective of think tank |
| |
| Institution: | 1. Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China;
2. School of Public Policy and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China; |
| |
| Abstract: | In recent years, the global digital economy has entered a period full of outbreak and competition. Paying close attention to the trend of digital economy in foreign countries has become an important pillar for China to maintain the competitiveness of the digital economy, and it is also one of the important topics of think tanks′ researches in serving the country′s macro decision-making. However, there are still two challenges currently for think tanks in carrying out researches on digital economy in foreign countries. One challenge is to transition from empirical to scientific research, which is necessary to break through the limitations of relying solely on expert knowledge to avoid one-sided research and judgment. The other challenge is to transition from pure academic-oriented to integrative studies fitting both academic and practical requirements, which must give full play to the role of policy, strategy and other materials in trend analysis, so as to bridge the gap between academic research and policy practice.
Facing the critical period of rapid development and dynamic evolution of the digital economy, it is necessary to carry out research that combines the subjective judgment of experts with the analysis of objective materials, supported by the methodology of think tank research. To this end, this paper adopts the double helix methodology of think tanks as the theoretical and practical guide of the research, which is proposed by Prof. Pan Jiaofeng at the Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences. The double helix methodology of think tanks consists of DIIS helix and MIPS helix, in which the DIIS abstracts operational steps of think tank research as data collection, information revelation, intelligence synthesis, and solution formation and the MIPS refines the logic process of think tank research as mechanism analysis, impact analysis, policy analysis and solution formation. Guided by the double helix methodology of think tanks, this paper extracts the mechanism of the digital economy into three dimensions: digital economy technology and infrastructure, digital economy and society, and digital regulation and governance. Combining the differences in the focus of digital development in three scales of intra-country, inter-country, and global governance, a two-dimensional analysis framework for the development trend of the digital economy with three dimensions × three scales is proposed.
Under this framework, the research focuses on agencies and think tanks from major countries, such as the United States and the European Union, collecting textual materials such as policies and reports related to the digital economy, and develops keyword analysis to reveal the current digital economy development hotspots in worldwide and the United States and the European Union. The results show that the hotspots of the digital economy in the United States mainly include strengthening digital infrastructure, promoting the digital transformation of manufacturing, developing digital assets, and competing for the global digital trade and digital currency system. While the hotspots of digital economy in the European Union mainly cover promoting the EU digital single market, boosting digital infrastructure construction, cultivating digital skills and accelerating the digital transformation of SMEs.
Based on the identification of hotspots in digital economy, 9 major trends in the development of foreign digital economy are recognized under the framework of two-dimensional analysis of digital economic development trends, namely (1) artificial intelligence, blockchain, and quantum computing are hotspots for technological innovation and application, (2) network and information security defenses are strengthened, (3) global digital connectivity receives increasingly attentions, (4) digital consumption is accelerated significantly, (5) the digital economy development is deepening; (6) digital inclusion contributes to global sustainable development; (7) data governance is strengthened; (8) digital sovereignty competition is gaining more awareness; (9) the conflict of digital economy governance rules continues.
In this context, this paper finally examines the problems faced by the digital economy development of China and puts forward the following countermeasures and suggestions.
In terms of digital technology and infrastructure development, it is suggested (1) to strengthen digital technology research and development and key technology breakthroughs, (2) to strengthen network security protection and construction, and (3) to innovate investment and financing models for the construction of the digital new infrastructures.
In terms of digital economy and society, it is suggested (1) to promote the digital transformation of small and medium-sized enterprises, (2) to deepen the digital transformation of traditional industries, and (3) to bridge the digital divide for rural areas and the elderly.
In terms of digital economy regulation and governance, it is suggested (1) to increase the application of digital technology in government governance, (2) to support Chinese companies to expand overseas markets and enhance the globalization of the digital economy, and (3) to participate in the formulation of global digital governance regulations. |
| |
| Keywords: | double helix methodology of think tanks digital economy development trend policy analysis |
|
| 点击此处可从《科研管理》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《科研管理》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|
