| 基于引文网络的颠覆性技术发展路径研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘云,桂秉修,王小黎.基于引文网络的颠覆性技术发展路径研究[J].科研管理,2022,43(11):32-44. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘云 桂秉修 王小黎 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.中国科学院大学 公共政策与管理学院，北京100049；
2.中国电子信息产业发展研究院，北京100048；
3.北京理工大学 管理与经济学院，北京100081 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划项目：“科技成果与数据资源产权交易技术”（2017YFB1401100，2018.01—2020.11）；国家自然科学基金重点国际合作研究项目：“新兴产业全球创新网络形成机制、演进特征及对创新绩效的影响研究”（71810107004，2019.01—2023.12）；国家自然科学基金面上项目：“国家创新体系国际化政策协同机制、过程模型及效应评估研究”（71573017，2016.01—2019.12）。 |
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| 摘 要： | 技术的发展路径研究可以在一定程度上追溯、探明和发现技术的发展方向，为技术预测提供支持，颠覆性技术作为当前国家战略的关注热点，从发展路径角度分析其特征，探寻其规律，为最终服务颠覆性技术发展具有重要意义。文章采用三方组结构模型的引文网络分析方法，结合三方组与网络遍历权值的关系，构建了基于网络论文重要性的技术颠覆性程度测度模型，实证研究了3D打印技术的三方组结构特征、网络特征及发展路径特征。研究表明，所构建的颠覆性技术发展路径测度方法能够动态测度较稳定的3D打印颠覆性程度，3D打印技术的颠覆性程度统计峰值出现在2003年，在2003年前稳步提升，2003年后保持稳定；通过三方组分析、网络分析和路径分析表明，在3D打印整体技术的一次颠覆过程中，伴随着其内部子技术的多次颠覆；在内部子技术方面，通过主路径分析发现3D打印技术的“选择性激光烧结”子技术经历了材料应用层面的多次颠覆。
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| 关 键 词： | 颠覆性技术 3D打印 三方组结构模型 网络遍历权值 主路径分析 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019-12-11 |
| 修稿时间： | 2020-07-07 |
Research on the disruptive technology development path based on citation network analysis |
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| Liu Yun,Gui Bingxiu,Wang Xiaoli.Research on the disruptive technology development path based on citation network analysis[J].Science Research Management,2022,43(11):32-44. |
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| Authors: | Liu Yun Gui Bingxiu Wang Xiaoli |
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| Institution: | 1. School of Public Policy and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;
2. China Center for Information Industry Development, Beijing 100048, China;
3. School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, China |
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| Abstract: | The technical development path analysis, to a certain extent, can trace, discover, identify the development direction of technology and support the technology forecasting. Currently, disruptive technology is the focus attention of national strategy, analyzing characteristics and exploring regularities from the perspective of development path can serve the development of disruptive technology. This paper uses the citation network analysis method that related with the tripartite structure model, combine the relationship between the tripartite group and the network traversal weights, constructed a model for measuring the degree of technological disruption of 3D printing based on the importance of network papers, the network characteristics and path characteristics. Studies have shown that the established measurement method for disruptive technology development can dynamically measure the importance of a stable 3D printing technology. Through tripartite analysis, network analysis, and path analysis, it is shown that in a disruptive process of 3D printing, it has repeatedly disrupted its internal sub-technology; the statistical peak of the importance degree of 3D printing technology appeared in 2003, steadily increased before 2003, and remained stable after 2003; in terms of internal sub-technology, through main path analysis, the "selective laser sintering" sub-technology of the 3D printing technology has experienced many disruptions at the level of material application.
In this study, the measurement analysis of the path of disruptive technology development is based on citation network analysis, which is carried out from four aspects: degree of disruption, tripartite group analysis, network feature analysis, and path feature analysis. The main research steps are as follows:
(1) Combining previous research results, from the perspective of technology development path, introduce the concept of disruptive degree, measure the disruptive degree of disruptive technology in the network, to judge the technology under relative and historical conditions development characteristics.
(2) Build an overall paper citation network containing time partitioned files and technical topics, using the node traversal weight algorithm and main path analysis to establish the relationship between the tripartite network and the node traversal weight algorithm, and analyze the characteristics of the technical tripartite group under dynamic conditions and network characteristics.
(3) According to the main path analysis method, extract the main path of sub-technology development from the citation network, and analyze the typical path characteristics of the technology.
In terms of research conclusions, from the analysis of the degree of disruptiveness, the shape of the disruptiveness curve of 3D printing is similar to that of Gartner′s technology maturity curve, both of which are characterized by the presence of a rising peak, and then slowly rebound after a decline. From the analysis of the tripartite group, the type of tripartite group with a large positive deviation from the expected value determines the core structure of the tripartite group in the network; both the overall and detailed networks show that the 9-030T tripartite group is the main structure of the network. Then when calculating the node traversal weights, its influence degree is also the largest. This is also the bridge and foundation for this study to connect the degree of disruption with the analysis of network characteristics.
In terms of research enlightenment, focus on analyzing the development of disruptive technologies from a dynamic process and a relative perspective. Disruptive technology is a dynamic and relative concept. A technology is called disruptive technology. Firstly, there must be a comparison object. Because to talk about disruptive technology, it is often easy to fall into the dilemma of defining the concept of disruptive technology. Secondly, to analyze the dynamic characteristics, combine the dynamics of disruptive technology, and study disruptive technology, it is necessary to take disruptive objects and peripheral environment into consideration at the same time, and develop corresponding research methods and means. In terms of researching the applicability of data, this method selects the paper data as the source, constructs the 9-030T tripartite citation network and calculates the degree of disruption, analyzes the network traversal weights, and analyzes the data source of the main path. Correspondingly, if you can handle some of the constraints, you can also use the citation relationship of patents and open-source software to conduct similar research. |
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| Keywords: | disruptive technology 3D printing tripartite structure model network traversal weight main path analysis |
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