| 城市空气质量数值预报试验研究 |
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| 作者姓名： | 雷源 王颖 雷孝恩 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国科学院微电子研究中心, 北京 100029;
2. 中国科学院研究生院, 北京 100039;
3. 中国科学院大气物理研究所, 北京 100029 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国科学院重大项目(KZ951-A1-403)资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 为开展城市空气质量业务预报,新近发展了一新的城市尺度气象和空气质量耦合数值预报模式系统,用该系统对重庆、天津、广州和济南市的24小时空气质量作了大量实际预报试验.预报与野外实测的浓度-气象场之间比较表明:预报与实测浓度(SO2、NO2和PM10)和风速比值总体平均为1.02±0.36和1.08±0.38;预报与实测的风向差在67.5°以内的概率可超过80%;预报与实测温度差在1.0℃以内的概率可超过75%;24小时降水量的预报准确率大于80%;日均API的预报准确率可达80%以上;预报与实测浓度-气象场之间有好的一致性.
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| 关 键 词： | 空气质量 耦合模式系统 数值预报 预报准确率 |
| 收稿时间： | 2002-03-15 |
| 修稿时间： | 2002-07-10 |
Experimental Study of Numerical Forecast on Urban Air Quality |
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| Authors: | Lei Yuan Wang Ying Lei Xiaoen |
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| Institution: | 1. Miroelectronic Research and Development Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China;
2. Graduate Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100039, China;
3. Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China |
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| Abstract: | In order to make business forecast on urban air quality, a new city-scale coupling model system between meteorology and air quality has been developed recently. The system was used to do a lot of experimental studies on practical forecast of air quality for 24 hours in Chongqing, Tianjin, Guangzhou, and Jinan cities.Comparisons between forecasted and field measured concentration-meteorology fields show that ensemble mean of ratios between forecasted and measured concentrations (SO2, NO2, and PM10) and wind speed are 1.02±0.36 and 1.08±0.38; probability that difference between forecasted and measured wind direction is less than 67.5° can exceed 80%; probability that difference between forecasted and measured temperature is less than 1.0°C can exceed 75%; forecasting accuracy of rainfall amount for 24 hours is more than 80%; forecasting accuracy of daily mean API can exceed 80%; there are good agreements between forecasted and measured concentration-meteorology fields. |
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| Keywords: | air quality coupling model system numerical forecast forecasting accuracy |
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