| 美国在“马亚克斯”事件中的情报失误及其启示 |
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| 引用本文： | 赵申洪,汪明敏.美国在“马亚克斯”事件中的情报失误及其启示[J].情报杂志,2021(4):13-20,4. |
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| 作者姓名： | 赵申洪 汪明敏 |
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| 作者单位： | 武汉大学中国边界与海洋研究院;战略支援部队信息工程大学洛阳校区 |
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| 摘 要： | 目的/意义]1975年5月12日,柬埔寨海军在泰国湾扣押了美国商船"马亚克斯号",时任总统福特领导下的美国政府最终采用武力方式夺回了船只及船员。然而,美国在此次营救行动中的情报工作存在较多失误。研究此次行动中的情报方面的失误,能为改进危机预警与管控中的情报工作提供参考借鉴。方法/过程]该研究利用解密的美国军事及外交档案,系统梳理了美军在"马亚克斯"事件中出现的事前威胁研判与预警、事后意图判断与战略选择、战场情报搜集与分析、情报上报分发等多个失误及其成因。结果/结论]美国在这次行动中的情报失误启示我们,应当提升战略预警能力,准确预判风险;注重情报的提前储备,有力支持危机决策与行动;优化情报报送分发机制,充分发挥情报价值。
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| 关 键 词： | “马亚克斯”事件 情报失误 战略预警 情报储备 情报报送分发机制 美国 |
The US Intelligence Failures in Mayaguez Incident and Its Implications |
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| Zhao Shenhong,Wang Mingmin.The US Intelligence Failures in Mayaguez Incident and Its Implications[J].Journal of Information,2021(4):13-20,4. |
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| Authors: | Zhao Shenhong Wang Mingmin |
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| Institution: | (China Institute of Boundary and Ocean Studies,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072;Luoyang Campus,Information Engineering University of the Strategic Support Force,Luoyang 471003) |
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| Abstract: | Purpose/Significance]On May 12,1975,the US merchant ship Mayaguez was seized by the Cambodian navy in the Gulf of Thailand.The US government under the leadership of the then US President Ford finally took back the ship and its crew by force.However,the United States made serious intelligence failures during the rescue operation.A study of the intelligence failures in this operation could provide reference for improving the intelligence work in crisis early warning and control.Method/Process]Based on the declassified U.S.military and diplomatic archives,this paper systematically sorts out the intelligence failures and its causes in the Mayaguez Incident.The intelligence failures include the pre-warning of threat,the judgment of intention after the event and the strategic choice,the collection and analysis of battlefield intelligence,and the reporting and distribution of the intelligence.Result/Conclusion]The American intelligence failures in this operation suggest that we ought to enhance the strategic early warning ability,accurately research and predict the risk;to reserve intelligence in advance to support crisis decision-making and action;to optimize the mechanism for reporting and distributing intelligence and give full play to the value of intelligence. |
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| Keywords: | Mayaguez Incident intelligence failure strategic early warning intelligence reserve intelligence reporting and distributing mechanism the United States |
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