Methode zur Aktivenraten-Prognose in der Sportentwicklungsplanung |
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| Authors: | Prof Dr-Ing Werner W Köhl |
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| Institution: | 1. Institut für St?dtebau und Landesplanung, Universit?t Karlsruhe (TH), KIT, Mühlwingle 102, 72762, Reutlingen, Deutschland
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| Abstract: | The quantitative sports development planning needed as a basis a forecast of sports practice on the quantitative extent and location. To support this it would be helpful to have cohort data, but their preparation needed at least a generation time, but then they would already be out of date. It is therefore appropriate to go back to resorted longitudinal data in lower age subdivisions which are, in a suitable manner with modified cross-sectional data are linked. Which is common practice, for example in the preparation of forecasting mortality tables for demographic prognosis. In the previous practice were predominantly empirical data on sport activity are kept constant and only linked to the future population. The survey results have only been published for age classes, which is unsuitable for a prognosis. The paper shows alternative how such class values in single year of age data can be transmitted when the results of an empirical study have been published only grouped. Then we made a suggestion as to how the development of cohorts in longitudinal section and the age specific sports activity can be linked to a forecast. For this, the sports activity is expressed as active rate (physically active inhabitants/1000 residents) defined and consistently over all ages from 0 to 99 years and more developed. From this it can be a measure of the active sporting years under the conditions of study year developed. These are the combined active rates, as can be expressed as years active in sports per inhabitant, when the ratios of the survey year would apply to the entire population. The new code is similar to the “combined birth rate” in the demography, where they give good services in analysis and forecasting. The forecast latitude per year of age is limited by external circumstances, so that it never reached 1000 active per 1000 inhabitants. These are the “obstacle rates” to determine inhabitants who are hindered to active sports at that age in that year. As the difference between the unattainable maximum of 1000 minus the obstacle rate to the current active rate results in the age specific prognosis latitude, called “potential rate”. From present periodic surveys of the extent of sporting engagements by age and sex and its projection on the entire forecast period results in “years with sport” expressible annual change. Oriented to the also changing annual potential rates may apply to the change volume sports years are divided annually to the individual age years. This is a data forecast oriented on longitudinal and cross-sectional data of the degree of physical activity in the form of an age-specific active rate. |
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