| 旧证据问题及其静态消解方案 |
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| 引用本文： | 徐娟娟,赵楠楠.旧证据问题及其静态消解方案[J].科学技术哲学研究,2020,37(1):33-38. |
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| 作者姓名： | 徐娟娟 赵楠楠 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京大学哲学系,南京210023;中共江苏省委党校哲学教研部,南京210009 |
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| 基金项目： | 江苏省研究生科研创新计划项目“贝叶斯知识论视域下的旧证据问题研究”(KYCX18-002);国家社科基金青年项目“社会悖境的逻辑机制与出路研究”(17CZX007) |
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| 摘 要： | 旧证据问题是贝叶斯确证理论在实践应用中出现的问题之一。对旧证据问题的原因分析与消解方案,成为贝叶斯确证理论之合理性和可行性辩护的重要环节。自问题提出以来,多种消解方案从不同视角对旧证据问题进行阐述分析,逐渐形成两大类消解方向:一类是以伽伯的学习策略为代表的动态消解方案,另一类是以豪森的反事实策略为代表的静态消解方案。前者并未对旧证据问题的问题实质作正面回应,而静态消解方案有着诸多优势,为揭示旧证据问题的实质和原因,以及为彻底消解旧证据问题提供诸多启示作用。
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| 关 键 词： | 贝叶斯确证理论 旧证据问题 反事实策略 静态消解方案 |
The Old Evidence Problem and Some Static Solutions |
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| XU Juan-juan,ZHAO Nan-nan.The Old Evidence Problem and Some Static Solutions[J].Science Technology and Dialectics,2020,37(1):33-38. |
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| Authors: | XU Juan-juan ZHAO Nan-nan |
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| Institution: | (Department of Philosophy,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210023,China;Department of Philosophy Teaching and Research,Party School of CPC Jiangsu Provincial Committee,Nanjing 210009,China) |
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| Abstract: | The Old Evidence Problem is one of the problems in the application of Bayesian confirmation.Its reason analysis and elimination solutions of the Old Evidence Problem have become important links in the defense of the rationality and feasibility of Bayesian Confirmation Theory.Since the Old Evidence Problem was raised,many solutions from different perspectives have been proposed.These solutions have gradually divided into two classes:the dynamic solutions based on Garber’s Learning Strategy,and the static solutions based on Howson’s Counterfactual Strategy.However,the dynamic solutions avoid the nature of the Old Evidence Problem.The static solutions have many advantages to provide some inspiration which reveals the nature of the Old Evidence Problem and eliminates it thoroughly. |
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| Keywords: | Bayesian Confirmation Theory the Old Evidence Problem Counterfactual Strategy static solutions |
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