| 高校招生人数影响因素分析及应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 彭怀祖.高校招生人数影响因素分析及应用[J].教育与经济,2008(2). |
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| 作者姓名： | 彭怀祖 |
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| 作者单位： | 南通大学,教育科学学院,江苏,南通,226019 |
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| 基金项目： | 江苏省教育科学规划项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 近年来，高校招生规模急剧扩大，对此现象社会志士见仁见智，众说纷纭。高校招生人数的确定是否具有科学性，人们有质疑，质疑的主要指向是招生规模的确定有一定的随意性。回应和解惑质疑，必须强化数据分析，进行定量研究。利用主成分分析法，对高校招生的影响因素进行分析，可以探寻影响高校招生人数的主要因素。建立招生人数与主要影响因素的多元回归方程数学模型，可以探究高校招生人数与主要因素之间的变化关系。以此为基础，就能较为科学地预测未来的、合理科学的高校招生人数。
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| 关 键 词： | 高校 招生人数 影响因素分析 预测 |
Influence Factors in University's Enrolment:Theoretical Analysis and Practical Implication |
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| PENG Huaizu.Influence Factors in University's Enrolment:Theoretical Analysis and Practical Implication[J].Education & Economy,2008(2). |
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| Authors: | PENG Huaizu |
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| Abstract: | The enrolment of Chinese universities has been increasingly enlarged in recent years.Different people from all walks of life have different opinions on this phenomenon.The question under debate is whether such enrolment is scientific or arbitrary.The response and answer to the question should be based on data analysis and quantitative research.By means of principal component analysis,the author makes an analysis of the influence factors in and an inquiry into the enrolment of Chinese universities.With a mathematical model of multivariate regression equation of the enrolment and the main influence factors,the transformation relation between them can be found out.On the basis of this,a reasonable and scientific prediction can be made for the number of students to be enrolled. |
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| Keywords: | university college enrolment influence factor analysis prediction |
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