| 基于多种模型的福建省国内旅游需求预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 黄银珠,陈雅丽.基于多种模型的福建省国内旅游需求预测[J].福建师大福清分校学报,2010(1):32-38. |
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| 作者姓名： | 黄银珠 陈雅丽 |
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| 作者单位： | 福建师范大学地理科学学院,福州,350007 |
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| 摘 要： | 旅游需求预测是旅游决策的基础。根据福建省1997—2008年国内游客量的统计数据，尝试构建灰色GM（1，1）模型、动态趋势预测模型和回归分析预测模型，分别对福建省未来5年国内游客接待量进行了预测。对预测结果的比较分析表明，灰色预测模型的平均预测误差可以控制在5％以下。因而是福建省国内旅游需求预测的最佳选择；而动态趋势预测模型虽也能达到要求的精度，但效果稍差；回归分析预测模型则产生较大误差，显然不宜用于有关预测。
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| 关 键 词： | 福建省 国内旅游需求 灰色GM（1 1）预测模型 动态趋势预测模型 回归分析预测模型 |
Forecasting of Domestic Tourism Demand in Fujian Province by Using Multiple Models |
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| HUANG Yinzhu,CHEN Yali.Forecasting of Domestic Tourism Demand in Fujian Province by Using Multiple Models[J].Journal of Fuqing Branch of Fujian Normal University,2010(1):32-38. |
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| Authors: | HUANG Yinzhu CHEN Yali |
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| Institution: | College of Geographical Sciences;Fujian Normal University;Fuzhou;Fujian 350007 |
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| Abstract: | Tourism demand modeling and forecasting is the basis for tourism decision-making. Based on statistical data during the period of 1997-2008 available in official yearbooks, three forecasting models, including GM (1.1)model, dynamic trend forecasting model and analysis model, were constructed and applied to predict the domestic tourist arrivals for the next 5 years in Fujian Province respectively. The analyses demonstrate that the GM (1.1) model can control average forecasting error within 5%, which therefore... |
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| Keywords: | Fujian Province Domestic tourism demand Grey dynamic model Dynamic trend forecasting model Regression analysis model |
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