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| 中国化肥消费需求影响因素及走势分析(Ⅱ) | |
| 引用本文： | 张卫峰,季玥秀,马骥,王雁峰,马文奇,张福锁.中国化肥消费需求影响因素及走势分析(Ⅱ)[J].资源科学,2008,30(1):31-36. |
| 作者姓名： | 张卫峰 季玥秀 马骥 王雁峰 马文奇 张福锁 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 中国农业大学资源与环境学院,中化化肥农大研发中心,北京,100094 2. 北京市农林科学院信息所,北京,100089 3. 中国农业大学经济管理学院,北京,100094 4. 河北农业大学资源与环境学院,保定,071001 |
| 基金项目： | 农业部“948”项目：“土壤养分资源综合管理技术引进与创新”（编号：2006-G60）. |
| 摘 要： | 本文在分析种植结构变化的基础上，运用农户调查数据分析了中国不同作物体系化肥消费水平，并核算了化肥在不同作物上的分配。最后利用多元线性回归方程定量研究了中国化肥消费对作物结构变化的弹性。结果表明，中国氮、磷肥消费已达到较高水平，氮、磷化肥施用面积比例分别达到87％和66％，大部分作物氮使用量超过了100kg／hm^2，磷肥超过80kg／hm^2。相对而言，钾肥施用水平略低，施肥面积比例仅43％，大部分农户很少使用钾肥。中国氮、磷肥用量较高与有机肥施用较少有关系。由于作物间施肥水平差异较大，作物群体变化对化肥消费的影响很大。随着种植结构调整，粮食作物播种面积比重已经下降到63％，粮食作物化肥消费比重已经下降到46％，而经济作物（尤其是果菜）已经成为化肥消费的主体。从种植结构弹性系数来看，粮食作物面积比例大，化肥消费总量对其面积变化的弹性要大于经济作物，但不同化肥品种对不同作物面积变化的弹性有一定差异。未来粮食作物面积会保持稳定，而高耗肥的经济作物面积会继续增长，因此全国化肥需求会进一步增加，尤其是施用水平较低的钾肥需求会有较大的增长空间。 |
| 关 键 词： | 中国 化肥 消费 驱动因素 种植结构 中国 化肥品种 消费需求 影响因素 走势分析 种植结构调整 Consumption Fertilizer Forces Driving Structure 增长空间 稳定 水平差异 面积变化 消费总量 弹性系数 主体 果菜 经济作物 |
| 文章编号： | 1007-7588（2008）01-0031-06 |
| 收稿时间： | 2007-01-20 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007-04-11 |
Driving Forces of Fertilizer Consumption in China (Ⅱ Planting Structure) |
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| ZHANG Wei-feng,JI Yue-xiu,MA Ji,WANG Yan-feng,MA Wen-qi and ZHANG Fu-suo.Driving Forces of Fertilizer Consumption in China (Ⅱ Planting Structure)[J].Resources Science,2008,30(1):31-36. | |
| Authors: | ZHANG Wei-feng JI Yue-xiu MA Ji WANG Yan-feng MA Wen-qi and ZHANG Fu-suo |
| Abstract: | Based on the data from farm household survey, the fertilizer consumption of different crops in terms of rate and area of fertilizer application was assessed, and the allocation of fertilizers for different crops was estimated based on both the household survey data and statistic data in 2005. The effectiveness of cropping pattern change on fertilizer consumption was analyzed through multiple regression models. The results show that all of the crops were fertilized with huge quantity of fertilizers, and the rate and area of fertilizer application are relatively higher for N and P2O5, but relatively lower for K2O. The cropping area of applying N and P2O5 and K2O take up 87 %, 66 % and 43 % respectively. The N fertilizer application for most crops exceeds 100kg per hectare. The P2O5 application for most of crops exceeds 80 kg per hectare. The application rate of K2O is always lower than that of N and P2O5. The application rate of N and P2O5 in China are higher than that in other countries. The cash crops are the main contributor to the increased fertilizer consumption in China. The area of grain crops accounted for 63 % of the national total, and the share of total fertilizer consumption of grain crops decreased to 46% in 2005 from 80% in 1980. The total fertilizer consumption and nitrogen fertilizer consumption are sensitive to the changes of growing area of rice, potato, maize, oilseeds, vegetables and fruit tree. The growing area changes of rice, oilseeds, cotton, sugar beet, vegetable and fruit tree are main factors affecting phosphate fertilizer consumption. The growing area change of rice and some cash corps affect the consumption of potash fertilizer. It is predicted that the area of grain crop will keep stable and growing area of cash crops with huge fertilizer consumption will increase continuously in the future. Therefore, the national fertilizer consumption will increase along with the increased area of cash crops. Especially, there is a big room for increase of Potassium fertilizer application. |
| Keywords: | China Fertilizer Consumption Driving forces Cropping pattern |
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