| 制造业财务预警模型研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 张祥,陈梅.制造业财务预警模型研究[J].华中科技大学学报(社会科学版),2004,18(3):61-64. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张祥 陈梅 |
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| 作者单位： | 华中科技大学,管理学院,湖北,武汉,430074;华中科技大学,管理学院,湖北,武汉,430074 |
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| 摘 要： | 章通过对单变量模型、多元判别分析模型和Logistic回归模型的分析和比较，发现行业模型的变量选取和预测准确性均有所不同。多元判别分析模型对新数据适合性较好，Logistic模型对原数据拟合性最好。通过行业模型的研究找出了制造业独特的预测指标，最后利用新样本对各模型的适应性作了检验。
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| 关 键 词： | 财务预警 制造业 预测模型 |
| 文章编号： | 1671-7023(2004)03-0061-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2003年12月22 |
Empirical Study of Financial Distress Model for Manufacturing Industry |
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| ZHANG Xiang,CHEN Mei.Empirical Study of Financial Distress Model for Manufacturing Industry[J].Journal of Huazhong University of Science and Technology(Social Science Edition),2004,18(3):61-64. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Xiang CHEN Mei |
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| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to present the study on financial distress for manufacturing industries through three methodologies, including univariate, multi-discriminant and logistic analysis. The result shows that the variables and accuracies of industrial distress models are different from general models. Multi-discriminant model can better fit the holdout data and Logistic model can better fit sample data. The study also presents the unique model parameters for manufacturing industry. Finally, a holdout data was used to test the various models. |
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| Keywords: | financial alert manufacturing industry distress models |
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