| 中国保险密度的分析和预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 陆秋君.中国保险密度的分析和预测[J].预测,2006,25(6):34-38. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陆秋君 |
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| 作者单位： | 上海理工大学,理学院,上海,200093 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文在回顾国内有关保险规模的研究基础上，首先结合中国恢复保险业以来的历史数据，运用协整回归的方法分析中国保险密度的显著影响因素。然后建立中国保险密度的贡贝尔茨模型，证实了中国的保险业处在成长前期。比较两个模型的预测精度，对保险业未采5年的趋势进行预测。最后根据分析的结果对中国的经济政策提出建议。
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| 关 键 词： | 保险密度 保险意识 协整 贡贝尔茨模型 预测 |
| 文章编号： | 1003-5192（2006）06-0034-05 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-06-05 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-06-05 |
An Analysis and Forecast of Insurance Density in China |
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| LU Qiu-jun.An Analysis and Forecast of Insurance Density in China[J].Forecasting,2006,25(6):34-38. |
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| Authors: | LU Qiu-jun |
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| Institution: | College of Science, University of Shanghai far Science and Technology, ,Shanghai 200093, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on domestic studies about insurance scale,this paper analyses the significant affecting factors which influence insurance density in China by using the method of co-integration regression,and sets Compertz model to simulate insurance density in China,which means insurance industry in China is promising.Comparing forecasting precision between two models,the author forecasts the future trendency of China's insurance industry and puts forward some countermeasures. |
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| Keywords: | insurance density insurance awareness co-integration Compertz model foreast |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
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