| 我国房地产区域市场投资轨迹分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 王延树,成虎,徐鹏富.我国房地产区域市场投资轨迹分析[J].东南大学学报,2008,24(2). |
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| 作者姓名： | 王延树 成虎 徐鹏富 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]东南大学土木工程学院,南京210096 [2]盐城工学院土木工程系,盐城224003 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据我国东部、中部和西部房地产市场历年投资数据，分别建立了ARMA模型并进行了谱分析，度量各地区的房地产投资发展变化情况，并对各地区的房地产投资作了预测，对各地区的投资周期进行了概要分析．研究结果表明了各个地区市场的房地产投资水平及其相应的周期情况：东部地区的房地产投资水平最高，投资短周期约4～5年，中部地区的房地产投资水平居中，其短周期约2～3年，西部地区的房地产投资近年来迅速增长，其短周期约4～5年．各个地区房地产投资在经过了一段时间的持续低迷和一段时间的持续高涨后，都已经达到了波峰，完成了一次中周期运动，这一过程约为9～10年．
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| 关 键 词： | 房地产投资 ARMA模型 谱分析 投资周期 |
Cyclical fluctuations of real estate investment across regions in urban China |
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| Wang Yanshu,Cheng Hu,Xu Pengfu.Cyclical fluctuations of real estate investment across regions in urban China[J].Journal of Southeast University(English Edition),2008,24(2). |
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| Authors: | Wang Yanshu Cheng Hu Xu Pengfu |
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| Abstract: | Taking the concrete conditions of each region into full consideration,the Chinese real estate market is divided into an eastern market,a central market and a western market.For each market,the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARMA)model is established and spectral analysis is carried out to better understand the changes in the real estate markets in each region.The results show the investment levels and several kinds of cycles within each market.The level of real estate investment(LREI)in the eastern region is the highest,and the short cycle of investment is about 4 to 5 years;the LREI in the central region is in the middle,and the short cycle of investment is about 2 to 3 years;the LREI in the western region has been rapidly increasing in recent years,and the short cycle of investment is about 4 to 5 years.Real estate investment in each area has reached a peak and completed a middle-cycle movement after a period of sustained recession and an upsurge process,which has taken about 9 to 10 years. |
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| Keywords: | real estate investment ARMA model spectralanalysis cycle of investment |
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