| 基于粮食安全视角的中国耕地资源盈亏测算 |
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| 引用本文： | 李效顺,蒋冬梅,卞正富.基于粮食安全视角的中国耕地资源盈亏测算[J].资源科学,2014,36(10):2057-2065. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李效顺 蒋冬梅 卞正富 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国矿业大学国土环境与灾害监测国家测绘局重点实验室, 徐州 221116;南京农业大学中国土地问题研究中心, 南京 210095;中国矿业大学国土环境与灾害监测国家测绘局重点实验室, 徐州 221116;中国矿业大学国土环境与灾害监测国家测绘局重点实验室, 徐州 221116 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金（编号：71103182，71473249）；科技基础性工作专项计划（编号：2014FY110800）；中国博士后一等和特别资助项目（编号：2011M500098，2013T60577）；江苏高校优势学科建设工程项目（编号：SZBF2011-6-B35）；江苏省研究生培养创新工程项目（编号：KYZZ_0389）。 |
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| 摘 要： | 耕地保护一直是政府关注重点、学者研究热点和公共政策难点。本文基于粮食安全视角,在把握我国耕地资源变化轨迹的基础上,通过构建测度模型,对我国耕地资源盈亏状况进行测算分析,研究结果表明:1由于全国第二次土地调查耕地规模有所增加的原因,虽然全国层面粮食安全视角的耕地稀缺有所缓解,但沿海等发达地区耕地资源较为稀缺的现实难题没能扭转;22008-2020年我国耕地盈余区域主要集中在中部平原和东北地区,耕地稀缺区域主要分布在东部发达地区和西部欠发达地区,其中北京、天津和上海等发达区域稀缺程度相对最大;3单产水平不变情景下,2020年我国粮食安全视角的耕地稀缺量高达1 486.43万hm2,稀缺程度为12.35%,而单产提高情景下,2020年稀缺数量减为179.80万hm2。由此可见,从维护国家粮食安全视角判断,未来耕地保护政策创新方向在严控数量减少的同时,重点应该关注耕地单产提升、区域补偿激励机制以及差别化考核政策设计。
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| 关 键 词： | 粮食安全 耕地资源 盈亏计量 中国 |
The Surplus and Deficit Measurement of the Cultivated Land in China in the View of Food Security |
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| LI Xiaoshun,JIANG Dongmei and BIAN Zhengfu.The Surplus and Deficit Measurement of the Cultivated Land in China in the View of Food Security[J].Resources Science,2014,36(10):2057-2065. |
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| Authors: | LI Xiaoshun JIANG Dongmei and BIAN Zhengfu |
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| Institution: | Key Laboratory of Land Environment and Disaster Monitoring, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou 221116, China;China Land Problem Research Center, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China;Key Laboratory of Land Environment and Disaster Monitoring, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou 221116, China;Key Laboratory of Land Environment and Disaster Monitoring, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou 221116, China |
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| Abstract: | The problem of cultivated land protection has been the focus of research, government and public policy. Based on the view of food security, this paper firstly grasped the changing track of the cultivated land resource. Then through building measurement formulae, this paper analyzed the surplus and deficit status of cultivated land resource in China. The results show that:firstly, because the cultivated land resource is increase in the second national land survey, the scarce number 377.83 × 104hm2 of the national cultivated land in 2008 became the surplus number 1 199.45 × 104hm2 in 2010. But the cultivated land resource is scarcer in the coastal development provinces. Secondly, from 2008 to 2010, the surplus areas of the cultivated land resource concentrated in the Central Plains and the Northeast area, the scarce areas of the cultivated land resource are mainly concentrated in the Eastern developed regions and Western less-developed areas in China. For example, the cultivated land resource in Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai and other coastal provinces are very scarce, and the scarcity of them is more than 100%. Thirdly, if the level of food production is not changed, that's to say, the production capacity of cultivated land was maintaining in year 2010, the shortage of cultivated land resource will be up to 1 486.43 × 104hm2 in 2020, and the scarcity rate will be 12.35%. On the assumption, the food yield increasd, the scarce number is reduced to 179.80×104hm2 in 2020. Therefore, judging from the perspective of the food security, the protection policy of the cultivated land resource in the future is not only controlling the reduced number. But the more important policy innovations are to improve food yield, regional compensation and different assessment policy design. |
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| Keywords: | food security cultivated land resource surplus and deficit measurement China |
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