| 福建省入境旅游规模时空差异及灰色模型预测分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 徐熙侠,颜醒华.福建省入境旅游规模时空差异及灰色模型预测分析[J].昆明大学学报,2012,4(1):49-54,73. |
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| 作者姓名： | 徐熙侠 颜醒华 |
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| 作者单位： | 华侨大学旅游学院 |
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| 摘 要： | 任何经济现象的空间分布都不是绝对平衡的。由于受经济发展水平、基础设施、服务设施、城市职能、旅游资源分布差异等的影响,入境旅游空间分布也存在差异。文章运用标准差、变异系数、基尼系数和赫芬达尔指数,分析福建入境旅游规模空间分布的差异程度,剖析其存在差异的原因,并构建福建省入境旅游规模的灰色预测GM（1,1）模型,对未来6年进行预测。研究得出：福建入境旅游规模的空间差异很大,集中化程度高,主要集中在厦门、泉州和福州三地。福建入境旅游规模基本上以每年12%的速度增长,入境旅游规模不断增大。
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| 关 键 词： | 福建省 入境旅游规模 时空差异 灰色预测模型 |
Temporal and spatial differences and grey prediction model analysis of inbound tourism scale in Fujian province |
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| Institution: | XU Xi - xia, YAN Xing - hua |
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| Abstract: | The spatial distribution of any economic phenomenon is not absolute balanced. Due to the impact on the level of e- conomic development, infrastructure, service facilities, urban function and the different distribution of tourism resource, the spa- tial distribution of inbound tourism is also different. This paper uses the standard deviation, coefficient of variation, Gini coeffi- cient, Herfindal index to analyze the different degrees of the inbound tourism of Fujian in spatial distribution and the reasons for the differences, and build Grey GM （ 1, 1 ） prediction model to predict inbound tourism of the next 6 years. The research shows that inbound tourism of Fujian province varies widely in the spatial distribution and concentrates on certain places, such as Xia- men, Quanzhou and Fuzhou. The inbound tourism of Fujian is growing at the rate of 12% per annum, and the inbound tourism is increasing. |
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| Keywords: | Fujian province inbound tourism scale temporal and spatial differences grey prediction model |
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