| 基于CA的城市扩展动态模拟与预测 |
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| 作者姓名： | 张显峰 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国科学院遥感应用研究所, 北京, 100101 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家九五科技攻关项目(9660207) |
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| 摘 要： | 城市扩展动态过程的模拟与预测可以为区域发展、城市规划和管理等提供决策依据。传统的各种城市模型不能完整地表示城市动态过程的时空信息和时空关系,通常将空间抽象为均质平原或简单功能区,将时间作为一个变量纳入方程,缺乏对城市动态系统的直接模拟。细胞自动机 (Cellular Automata)是一种“自下而上”的动态模拟建模框架,具有模拟复杂系统时空演化过程的能力。本文将标准CA模型的四元组进行了扩展以满足GIS环境下的城市扩展动态模拟的要求,建立了土地持续利用动态模拟模型。运用此模型对包头市城市扩展进行了比较成功的模拟和对未来 15年城市发展趋势进行了预测。
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| 关 键 词： | 细胞自动机 转换规则 城市扩展 动态模拟 |
| 收稿时间： | 2000-09-01 |
Cellular Automaton Based Urban Growth Dynamics Modelling and Prediction |
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| Authors: | Zhang Xian-feng |
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| Institution: | Institute of Remote Sensing Applications, Chinese Acadeny of Science, Beijing 100101 |
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| Abstract: | Cities are the center of regional systems. The simulation and prediction of urban growth is useful for regional planning, urban planning and land management.However, traditional models just regard space as an even plain, time as a simple variable. Space, time and attribute are the basic characteristics of reality world. So more effective and powerful modeling methods need to be developed to simulate the urban expansion process. Cellular Automata Mode1(CA)provides GIS with a bottom-to-top spatio-temporal modeling frame, which is composed of a fourfold; cells, states, neighbors and rules. The simplicity and flexibility make CA have the ability to simulate a variety of behaviors of complex system. In order to neet the meeds of urban dynamic spatio-temporal modeling under GIS environment, the standard CA is extended to GIS context about the concept of cells, system time and transition rules. Based on these extensions, several factors affecting urban evolution are simulated on a virtual city. Finally, to take Baotou City as an example, a model integrating GIS with ECA was built to simulate the evolution of urban expansion and sustainable land use. The initial time is 1992 when land use data were acquired by aerial photography.The change data collected by differential GPS are used for mexlel calibration. The appropriate extents of Baotou City development in 1998, 2006 and 2012 are simulated. The result of 1998 is in conformity with the surveyed data with GPS.Thus, the estaldished mexlel can be used as a virtual 1ad for decision support in urban planning and land policy-making. |
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| Keywords: | cellular automata transition rule urban expansion dynamic process simulation |
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